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Ethanol Producer Magazine

by Geoff Cooper

May 8, 2023

In April, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency released a proposed regulation for what it calls “Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles.” While that title sounds official and impressive, let’s call the proposed regulation what it really is: an electric vehicle mandate. Why? Because unless automakers dramatically increase their production of EVs in the years ahead, they’ll have no way of complying with EPA’s ambitious proposed standards. EPA itself expects that, under the regulations, “EVs could account for 67% of new light-duty vehicle sales” by 2032.

Indeed, John Bozzella, head of the national trade association representing automakers, called EPA’s proposal “aggressive by any measure” and labeled the agency’s EV goals as “very high.” Rather than plunging headlong into the EV abyss, Bozzella recommended that “EPA and the petroleum industry should act quickly to concurrently lower the carbon intensity of liquid fuels. This will produce higher and faster returns by reducing emissions from not only new gas vehicles (including plug-in hybrid EVs), but from the millions of light-duty gas vehicles currently on the road."

We wholeheartedly agree.

And that’s why policymakers should be considering technology-neutral approaches for reducing carbon emissions instead of pursuing vehicle mandates that put all of our eggs into one basket. A smarter approach to carbon policy would be to set the emissions reduction goal, then let the marketplace determine the lowest-cost and most efficient ways of meeting that standard.

That’s exactly what the Next Generation Fuels Act would do.

This bipartisan legislation was introduced in the Senate in late March by Senators Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), and the following week in the House by Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), Angie Craig (D-MN), Darin LaHood (R-IL), Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) and 16 others.

If signed into law, this bill would require more efficient high-octane, lower-carbon fuels beginning in 2028. The bill doesn’t dictate how regulated parties must achieve the higher octane and lower carbon requirements; it doesn’t require the use of a specific fuel or vehicle. Rather, it simply sets the standard for high octane (95 RON ramping up to 98 RON) and low carbon (the source of the octane boost must reduce GHG emissions by 40% compared to today’s gasoline), opens the marketplace to a broad array of high-octane, low-carbon sources by removing arcane regulatory barriers, then lets the market work its magic.The reintroduction of the Next Generation Fuels Act in both the House and Senate gives liquid fuels the opportunity to increase fuel efficiency while reducing tailpipe emissions, something that the Biden Administration is acutely focused on at this time. This bill would also keep our industry moving forward in pursuing our members’ commitment to a net-zero-carbon future and would demonstrate that there are alternatives to an all-EV future in the form of lower-cost, lower-emitting renewable liquid fuels that are ready to deploy in increased amounts today.  RFA strongly supports the Next Generation Fuels Act, and we thank the many visionary leaders in Congress who support this landmark legislation. We look forward to working with clean fuel supporters in both chambers of Congress—and both political parties—to turn this bold vision into a reality.

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Renewable Fuels Association

May 4, 2023

March U.S. ethanol exports vaulted 27% to a ten-month high of 132.3 million gallons (mg). Canada was our largest destination for the 24th consecutive month given its 43% share of March exports, including 72% of all denatured shipments. Our neighbor’s imports of 56.6 mg, a 34% bump over February, represent the largest monthly volume of U.S. ethanol exports to a single country to date. Other major global customers in March included India (22.8 mg, up from zero to a 13-month high), the European Union (12.8 mg, +104%), the United Kingdom (8.7 mg, -11%), Peru (7.9 mg, +89% to an 11-month high), and Mexico (5.9 mg, +9%). Notably, exports considerably curbed to South Korea (5.2 mg, -50%), the Philippines (2.2 mg, -62%), and Jamaica (2.1 mg, -67%), while Brazil again remained essentially absent from the market with a 16% tariff on U.S. ethanol in place. Year-to-date U.S. ethanol exports total 354.1 mg, lagging 10% behind last year at this time and marking the smallest first-quarter exports since 2016.

The U.S. did not log any meaningful imports of ethanol for the third consecutive month.

March U.S. exports of dried distillers grains (DDGS), the animal feed co-product generated by dry-mill ethanol plants, swung 17% higher to 898,086 metric tons (mt) upon elevated volumes in our larger markets. Mexico remained our top customer for the ninth consecutive month, with imports tallying 209,812 mt, a 23% leap over February volumes and a ten-month high. Mexico, South Korea (127,685, +7%), and Turkey (103,346 mt, +153%) together captured half of our global market in March. Indonesia (68,832 mt, +43%), Vietnam (53,259 mt, up a tick), and Canada (48,360 mt, +4%) imported sizeable volumes as well. Year-to-date DDGS exports total 2.43 million mt, coming in 16% below last year at this time and representing the smallest first-quarter exports since 2019.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

May 3, 2023

U.S. EPA Administrator Michael Regan fielded questions on the availability E15 and carbon capture and storage (CCS) permitting during a May 3 hearing held by the U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations.

Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., applauded the U.S. EPA’s April 28 announcement  that it will issue emergency waivers allowing E15 sales to continue nationwide during the summer 2023 driving season and asked Regan to support effort to enact a legislative fix allowing permanent access to year-round E15 in the U.S.

“Providing access to E15 helps families save money at the gas pump, it’s better for the environment, and it boosts our nation’s energy security,” Fischer said. “While the emergency fuel waiver is a good thing, I believe we need a permanent fix and I have a bipartisan bill for that—the Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act. It ensures nationwide permanent access to E15.” She asked Regan if he would commit to working with her on the legislative effort.

“The president has pledged that biofuels—especially advanced biofuels—would play a part in this economy as we move forward, so I look forward to partnering with you and your staff with technical assistance to be sure that we can make E15 more accessible,” Regan said in response.

Members of the committee also questioned Regan on permitting for Class VI CCS injection wells and states’ efforts to achieve primary regulatory authority (primacy) over Class VI injection wells located within their states. Under current regulations, the EPA is the acting regulatory authority with regard to Class VI wells in all states except those that have been granted primacy. States must apply for primacy and prove that their Class VI regulations are at least as stringent as federal standards. North Dakota became the first state to be granted primacy in 2018, followed by Wyoming in 2020. The EPA on April 28 announced its intent to grant primacy to Louisiana as well.

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.V., noted that at approximately 70 individual permit applications are currently pending with the EPA for Class VI injection wells. She asked Regan what measures the agency is taking to ensure those permits are prioritized and processed in a timely manner, noting that states that have been issued primacy are able to move through the Class VI permitting process much more quickly.

Regan confirmed that Class VI well application are a priority for the EPA. “I think  the president has indicated that CCS is something that this administration supports,” he said. “We’ve learned a lot of lessons from state’s like North Dakota,” he added, noting that Louisiana’s primacy will serve as a model for other states that choose to move forward with that process. He said uniformity ensuring states submit similar applications will allow for expedited processing.

A full replay of the hearing is available on the Senate Appropriations Committee website.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

May 2, 2023

U.S. operable biofuels production capacity increased in February, with gains for ethanol, biodiesel and renewable diesel and associated fuels, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on April 28. Total feedstock consumption was up slightly when compared to February 2022.

Total biofuels capacity reached 22.718 billion gallons per year in February, up 509 MMgy when compared to the 22.209 billion gallons per year of capacity in place the previous month and up 1.595 billion gallon per year when compared to the 21.123 billion gallons per year of capacity in place as of February 2022.

Ethanol capacity reached 17.395 billion gallons per year in February, up 176 MMgy when compared to the previous month, but down 28 MMgy when compared to the same month of last year.

Biodiesel capacity was at 2.063 billion gallons per year in February, up 12 MMgy when compared to January, but down 169 MMgy when compared to February 2022.

Capacity for renewable diesel and associated fuels, including renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline and other biofuels and biointermediates, reached 3.26 billion gallons per year in February, up 321 MMgy when compared to the previous month and up 1.792 billion gallons per year when compared to February 2022.

U.S. biofuel producers consumed 24.537 billion pounds of feedstock in February, down from 27.154 billion pounds in January, but up from 24.348 billion pounds consumed in February of the previous year.

An estimated 22.33 billion pounds of corn was consumed by U.S. biofuel producers in February, down from both 24.694 billion pounds consumed in January and 22.74 billion pounds consumed in February of last year. Grain sorghum consumption was at 208 million pounds in February, down from 264 million pounds the previous month, but up from 133 million pounds in February 2022.

Total soybean oil consumption reached 910 million pounds in February, with 536 million pounds consumed by biodiesel plants and 374 million pounds consumed by renewable diesel facilities. Total soybean oil consumption was at 941 million pounds in January, including 557 million pounds consumed at biodiesel plant and 384 million pounds consumed at renewable diesel facilities. Soybean oil consumption was at 741 million pounds in February 2022, including 519 million pounds consumed by biodiesel plants and 222 million pounds consumed by renewable diesel facilities.

U.S. biofuel producers consumed 207 million pounds of corn oil in February, down from 289 million pounds in January, but up from 188 million pounds in February of the previous year. Canola oil consumption was at 168 million pounds in February, down from 242 million pounds the previous month. The EIA withheld the volume of canola oil that went to biofuel production in February 2022 in order to avoid disclosure of individual company data.

According to EIA, biofuel producers consumed 404 million pounds of yellow grease, 192 million pounds of beef tallow, 33 million pounds of white grease and 22 million pounds of poultry fat in February. Consumption was at 404 million pounds, 199 million pounds, 41 million pounds, and 15 million pounds, respectively, in January; and at 306 million pounds, 130 million pounds, 38 million pounds, and 13 million pounds, respectively, in February 2022. The EIA withheld data on other types of waste oils, fats and greases consumed in order to avoid disclosure of individual company data.

An additional 63 million pounds of feedstock classified as “other” recycled feeds and wastes went to biofuel production in February, compared to 65 million pounds in January and 59 million pounds in February 2022. The EIA withheld data on yard and food waste feedstock and feedstock classified as “other” to avoid disclosure of individual company data.

Additional data is available on the EIA  website.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Apr 27, 2023

Novozymes released first quarter financial results on April 26, reporting that bioenergy sales were up 28 percent during the three-month period. Overall company sales were up 5 percent for the quarter.

According to Novozymes, the strong growth in bioenergy sales came in well ahead of expectations after a very strong ending to the quarter. The company said growth was partly driven by the timing of orders and more supportive market conditions. “The strong underlying performance was driven by the continued penetration of the broad and innovative solution toolbox allowing for higher yields, throughput, and byproduct value-capture for producers in a market environment that turned more favorable towards the end of the quarter,” Novozymes said in a statement.

The North American market experienced strong developments during the quarter despite an estimated 2 percent decrease in U.S. ethanol production. Novozymes said performance was also strong outside of North America, driven by innovation, capacity expansion of corn-based ethanol production in Latin America, and supported by growth in solutions for biodiesel production. Sales of enzymes used in second-generation biofuels production also contributed. Overall, growth was positively impacted by pricing, Novozymes added.

Bioenergy accounted for 23 percent of total company sales during the first quarter. Household care; food, beverages and human health; grain and tech processing; and agriculture, animal health and nutrition accounted for 27 percent, 22 percent, 13 percent and 15 percent of first quarter sales, respectively.

Total sales for the quarter were up 5 percent, with gains for bioenergy; household care; and agriculture, animal health and nutrition.

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Senator Amy Klobuchar

Apr 14, 2023

WASHINGTON - U.S. Senators Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA) and a bipartisan group of 14 colleagues urged the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to strengthen the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) by maintaining the blending requirements for 2023; denying all pending Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs); eliminating proposed retroactive cuts to the renewable volume obligations (RVOs); and setting RFS volumes at the statutory levels.

“The RFS creates competition in the marketplace, keeping fuel costs low for consumers while bringing down carbon emissions,”the senators wrote to EPA Administrator Michael Regan.“By taking the steps enumerated above, EPA can set the RFS on a path that provides stability and growth for the U.S. biofuel sector.  In doing so, it can guarantee this essential program continues to function as intended—as a mechanism for reducing emissions, driving economic growth in rural communities, keeping gas prices low, and bolstering national security by promoting an essential homegrown energy source.”

In addition to Klobuchar and Grassley, the letter was also signed by Senators Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), John Thune (R-SD), Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Deb Fischer (R-NE), Tina Smith (D-MN), Pete Ricketts (R-NE), Dick Durbin (D-IL), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Roger Marshall (R-KS), Gary Peters (D-MI), Mike Rounds (R-SD), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and Jerry Moran (R-KS).

Klobuchar has long been a strong advocate for investing in renewable fuel infrastructure, increasing American biofuel production, and upholding the Clean Air Act’s Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). In March, she and Fischer reintroduced  bipartisan legislation to make E15 available year round. TheConsumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2023would enable the year-round, nationwide sale of ethanol blends higher than 10 percent, helping to lower fuel prices and provide certainty in fuel markets for farmers and consumers. 

Last July, Klobuchar introduced  bipartisan legislation to lower fuel prices and improve vehicle efficiency. TheNext Generation Fuels Actwould allow the sale of fuels with higher-octane levels and greater amounts of ethanol.

Last April, Klobuchar led  a bipartisan group of colleagues in pushing the Biden administration to expand American biofuel availability. 

In March 2022, she and Ernst introduced  theHome Front Energy Independence Act, bipartisan legislation to expand the availability and production of American biofuel, following President Biden’s ban on importing Russian oil.

Klobuchar and Grassley also introduced  bipartisan legislation in December 2021 to provide certainty to biofuel producers by preventing the EPA from retroactively reducing RVO levels once finalized.

Full text of the letter is available here.

Read the original press release here

Ethanol Producer Magazine

Apr 17, 2023

Despite seasonally lower ethanol demand, U.S ethanol production and profitability were in line with long-term averages during the first quarter of 2023, according to CoBank Knowledge Exchange’s latest quarterly report, released April 6.

CoBank said the ethanol industry had a slow start in January, but finished the quarter strongly. Production during the three-month period averaged 15.4 billion gallons on an annualized basis, down slightly from 2022’s average of 15.5 billion gallons.

Pretax margins averaged only 7 cents per gallon at the start of the quarter, but increased to long-term average levels of 28 cents per gallon by the end of the period. According to CoBank, margins benefited from lower corn prices and natural gas energy costs at the close of the quarter.

CoBank also highlighted policy developments that took place during the quarter, including the reintroduction of the Next Generation Fuels Act by Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa. That bill aims to create a high-octane fuel standard and require automakers to manufacture vehicles that can use high-octane fuels.

A full copy of the quarterly report is available on CoBank’s website.

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Renewable Fuels Association

Apr 6, 2023

On Sunday, members of OPEC+, a consortium of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied nations, announced further reductions in oil output through the end of the year totaling more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd). Additionally, Russia, which is part of the group, indicated that it would extend its previously announced 500,000 bpd production cut through year-end. In response, oil futures prices surged more than 6% on Monday, and well-known energy market analysts expect prices to continue to rise as global supplies tighten in the coming months.

Bad Timing

The OPEC+ announcement could hardly have come at a worse time. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), total U.S. inventories of crude oil and petroleum products are 6% below this time last year and are at a 19-year low seasonally. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level in 40 years, rendering it difficult to use to balance supplies as was done last year in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Gasoline inventories are 7% below year-ago levels and are at a 9-year low seasonally. And, the summer driving season—a time when gasoline demand and prices are at their highest—is just around the corner.

What the Analysts Are Saying

According to  The Hill,  Andrew Lipow “thinks that in the coming weeks, gasoline prices, which stood at about $3.50 per gallon on Monday, will rise between 12 and 16 cents per gallon.” Similarly, Tom Kloza of Oil Price Information Service “predicted an ‘immediate increase’ of 10 to 12 cents per gallon, and added that the cuts also have the potential to contribute to further increases later in the year.”

Bloomberg  quoted Francisco Blanch of Bank of America as saying, “Any unexpected 1 million barrel per day change in supply or demand conditions over the course of a year can impact prices between $20 and $25 per barrel.” That would imply crude oil prices rising to around $100 per barrel (bbl).

Reuters  indicated that “Rystad Energy said it believed the cuts will add to tightness in the oil market and lift prices above $100 a barrel for the rest of year, possibly taking Brent as high as $110 this summer.” It also noted that UBS expects prices of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, to hit $100/bbl by June and that Goldman Sachs raised its December forecast for Brent crude to $95/bbl. Other analysts are also calling for prices to gravitate toward $100/bbl during the second half of the year.

Implications for Retail Gasoline Prices

To determine how these oil price forecasts would translate to U.S. retail prices of gasoline, RFA conducted a straightforward regression analysis. This was based on the tight relationship between oil prices — particularly Brent — and gasoline prices.

Two approaches were used for the analysis. First, retail gasoline prices were regressed against Brent crude oil spot prices using monthly data for the past 20 years. The gasoline price that was utilized is the all-grades, all-formulations price reported by the EIA. The correlation coefficient between the two data series is 0.94 (1.00 would indicate perfect positive correlation). The R-squared statistic for the regression is 0.88, which in practical terms implies that 88% of the variation in the retail gasoline price is “explained” by changes in the crude oil price.

The statistics would be marginally higher by including monthly “dummy” variables as explanatory variables or by using the regular unleaded price instead of the all-grades, all-formulations price. However, dummy variables were not used since implications of the OPEC+ cut for gasoline prices were not assessed on a monthly/seasonal basis. It is also worth noting that retail gasoline prices include an additional margin beyond wholesale prices, which can affect the tightness of the relationship to crude oil.

The second approach that was used was to regress the change in the retail gasoline price against the change in Brent crude spot prices. This was done since fuel prices often exhibit a trend over periods of time.

The results from the two approaches are similar. If the price of Brent crude were to rise to $95/bbl as a result of the OPEC+ production cut, the average retail gasoline price would be predicted to increase by $0.34-0.38 per gallon (gal) compared to the price shortly before the announcement. If it were to rise to $100/bbl, the gasoline price would be expected to increase by $0.44-0.50/gal.

EIA reports gasoline prices weekly rather than daily. However, AAA  reported  that the national average price for regular gasoline was $3.48/gal late last week. This is consistent with the $3.50/gal average price of regular gasoline reported by EIA for the week ended April 3. For both that week and the year to date, the differential between the all-grades, all-formulations price and the price of regular has averaged $0.11/gal. This implies that the all-grades, all-formulations price late last week would have been approximately $3.59/gal.

If Brent crude oil rises to $100/bbl due to the OPEC+ production cuts, as many analysts are predicting, the U.S. average retail gasoline price would be expected to increase to more than $4.00/gal. If the production cuts were to last for a year, that would equate to an additional cost to U.S. consumers of $64 billion, or nearly $500 per household.

Ethanol Is Helping Hold Down Prices and Can Help More

According to a recent  study  conducted by energy economists from the University of California-Berkeley and the Czech Republic, the use of ethanol reduced the price paid by U.S. drivers for gasoline by an average of $0.77/gal between 2019 and 2022. That was based on ethanol being blended into gasoline predominantly at a 10% rate (E10).

Sales of a higher 15% ethanol blend (E15) have become increasingly popular over the last several years and hit  1 billion gallons  for the first time in 2022. An RFA  analysis  found that the availability of additional E15 volumes saved American consumers approximately $60 million last summer, when it was $0.20-0.30/gallon less expensive than regular gasoline (E10). However, summertime sales would have been far smaller had the Biden administration not granted a series of waivers for E15 from an obsolete fuel requirement.

Whereas many retailers had previously found it difficult or impossible to offer E15 during the summer months in conventional gasoline areas, in 2019 the Environmental Protection Agency issued a regulation allowing E15 to be sold year-round.[1]  Then, in 2021 the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the regulation, ruling in favor of oil refiners. The restriction would have returned last year, but the EPA invoked its authority to issue emergency waivers when “extreme and unusual fuel or fuel additive supply circumstances exist,” as was the case following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

If the administration does not take action within the next month, E15 sales will drop precipitously in most of the country this summer, as was the pattern in conventional gasoline areas prior to 2019. Yet, the issuance of waivers is at least as justified by market conditions now as it was last year, since inventories of gasoline (and petroleum overall) are even lower, as discussed above. Allowing E15 to continue to be sold in conventional gasoline areas this summer—just as it has the last four years—would benefit American consumers and the environment and strengthen energy security.

[1]  EPA limits the volatility of gasoline during the “high ozone season” every summer (Jun. 1-Sep. 15). Prior to EPA’s 2019 rule change, the practical volatility limit for E10 sold in conventional gasoline areas was 10 pounds per square inch (psi) Reid vapor pressure (RVP), but E15 was held to a 9-psi limit. EPA’s 2019 rule effectively extended the volatility limit for E15 to 10 psi, creating regulatory parity for E15 and E10.

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