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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jan 12, 2023

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Jan. 12. The agency also maintained its forecast for season-average corn prices.

According to the USDA, this month’s 2022-’23 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production; food, seed and industrial use; feed and residual use; exports; and ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 13.73 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield is more than offset by a 1.6 million acre cut to harvested area. Total corn use is reduced 185 million bushels to 13.915 billion. Exports are reduced 150 million bushels to 1.925 billion, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, and the lowest level of outstanding sales as of early January since the 2019-’20 marketing year.

Food, seed and industrial use is lowered 10 million bushels, with reductions in corn used for starch, glucose and dextrose. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels to 5.275 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the agency’s Grain Stocks report. With supply falling more than use, 2022-’23 corn stocks are lowered 15 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel.

The USDA has maintained its forecast for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol at 5.275 billion bushels. An estimated 5.326 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production in 2021-’22, up from 5.028 billion bushels in 2020-’21.

Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil partly offset by an increase for China. Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting declines to both area and yield, as heat and dryness during December and into early January reduced yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. Brazil corn production for 2022-’23 is cut reflecting dry conditions for first-crop corn in parts of southern Brazil. China corn production is higher based on the latest area and yield data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

For 2022-’23 global trade, the USDA expects increased corn exports for Ukraine and reductions for Argentina and the U.S. For 2021-’22, Argentina’s exports for the marketing year beginning March 2022 are lowered based on observed shipments to date, while Brazil is raised. Corn imports for 2022-’23 are lowered for Vietnam and Peru. China’s corn feed and residual use is raised based on a larger crop and lower sorghum imports. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting reductions for Ukraine, Brazil, Pakistan, and Paraguay with a partly offsetting increase for China. Global corn stocks, at 296.4 million tons, are down 2 million.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jan 11, 2023

U.S. fuel ethanol production rebounded by 12 percent the week ending Jan. 6 after falling to a nearly two-year low the previous week, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Jan. 11. Stocks of fuel ethanol were down 3 percent.

Fuel ethanol production averaged 943,000 barrels per day the week ending Jan. 6, up 99,000 barrels per day when compared to the 844,000 barrels per day of production reported for the previous week. When compared to the same week of last year, production for the week ending Jan. 6 was down 63,000 barrels per day.

Weekly ending stocks of fuel ethanol fell to 23.8 million barrels the week ending Jan. 6, down 644,000 barrels when compared to the 24.444 million barrels of stocks reported for the previous week. When compared to the same week of last year, stocks for the week ending Jan. 6 were up 889,000 barrels.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jan 9, 2023

The government of Japan is inviting comments on proposed biofuel standards for fiscal years 2023 through 2027. The proposal also includes updated carbon intensity (CI) values for both U.S. corn-based ethanol and Brazilian sugarcane-based ethanol, according to a report filed with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s Global Agricultural Information Network on Jan. 3.

Japan’s current biofuel target for transportation is set to expire on March 31, 2023. In late December, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) proposed an update that was developed following four expert committee meetings held during the second half of 2022, according to the report

METI is proposing to maintain the annual target volume for transport biofuels at 500 million liters (132.09 million gallons) crude oil equivalent for Japan's fiscal years 2023-2027. The report indicates that consumption of next generation biobased ethanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) would count towards that target. METI also aims to set an annual target volume for next generation ethanol at 10 million liters of crude oil equivalent starting in fiscal year 2028.

Under the proposal, METI plans to keep the current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target at 55 relative to gasoline until the ministry updates the default CI value of gasoline. That update is expected to take place during fiscal year 2023. Following that update, the METI plans to increase the GHG reduction target for transport biofuels to 60 percent of the gasoline GHG value, according to the report.

In addition, METI is proposing to update the default CI values for ethanol to 37.1 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule (gCO2e/MJ) for U.S. corn-based ethanol and to 28.56 gCO2e/MJ for Brazilian sugarcane-based ethanol. The values are currently set at 43.15 gCO2e/MJ and 33.61 gCO2e/MJ, respectively.

METI is accepting comments on the proposal through Jan. 17. According to the report, comments must be submitted in Japanese. METI will consider the comments and issue an updated proposal, which will also be subject to a public comment period.

A full copy of the report can be downloaded from the USDA FAS GAIN website.

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Renewable Fuels Association

Jan 9, 2023

A new survey of registered voters shows robust support for ethanol and the Renewable Fuel Standard, while also revealing significant opposition to policies that ban liquid fuels or mandate electric vehicles. The poll was conducted for the Renewable Fuels Association by Morning Consult.

“As the new Congress settles in and begins to consider the future of our nation’s energy policy, these polling results demonstrate that Americans strongly support expanded use of lower-cost, lower-carbon renewable fuels like ethanol,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “Voters clearly want greater access to fuel blends containing more ethanol—like E15, E30, and E85—and they want to see more flex fuel vehicles made available. These results also make it apparent that Americans strongly oppose policies that would limit the availability of liquid-fueled vehicles or effectively force them to purchase electric vehicles. Overall, this survey is a strong indication that consumers understand and appreciate the environmental advantages, energy security benefits, and affordability that ethanol offers.”

According to the survey:

  • Nearly two-thirds of survey respondents (65 percent) support the Renewable Fuel Standard, while only 15 percent expressed opposition to the program.
  • Meanwhile, 64 percent of respondents have a favorable opinion of ethanol, compared to just 18 percent unfavorable.
  • Regarding higher blends, 68 percent support increasing the availability of E15 to help lower fuel prices and bolster energy independence, and 66 percent said it is important for the federal government to promote the production and sale of flex fuel vehicles (capable of running on up to 85% ethanol) in the United States.
  • Three out of five (60 percent) respondents support the Next Generation Fuels Act, which would drive the use of more efficient, lower-carbon liquid fuels like E25 or E30, compared to just 18 percent who oppose such legislation.
  • By a margin of nearly 3 to 1 (52 percent to 19 percent), voters support efforts to sequester carbon dioxide using underground pipelines.

Notably, Cooper said, support for ethanol and renewable fuels policy crossed party lines and includes majorities of both Republican and Democrat respondents.

The poll also found strong doubts about some policy proposals regarding electric vehicles, particularly those that eliminate consumer choice and options when it comes to vehicle purchases. Key results:

  • Half (50 percent) of respondents said they were not interested in purchasing or leasing an electric vehicle in the next three years, while 42 percent expressed interest. Another 8 percent had no opinion.
  • Nearly four out of five (77 percent) of voters say it is important for automakers to disclose (to potential buyers) the emissions impacts of the electricity used to power electric vehicles. Only 12 percent said transparent emissions information isn’t important.
  • Two-thirds (66 percent) oppose policies that ban the sale of new cars with traditional liquid-fueled engines, with only 23 percent supporting such policies.
  • Seven out of 10 respondents (69 percent) oppose EV mandates, with 54 percent expressing “strong” opposition.
  • Meanwhile, 58 percent support federal funding for charging infrastructure and tax credits for electric vehicles.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jan 4, 2023

The White House Office of Management and Budget on Jan. 4 published its 2022 Fall Unified Agenda and Regulatory Plan, confirming the expected timeline on federal rulemakings related to the Renewable Fuel Standard, E15 sales and the Biopreferred program.

According to the  agenda,  the U.S. EPA is still expected to finalize its RFS “set” rule by June 2023, as required as part of a consent decree filed with the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. The proposed rule,  released on Dec. 1, 2022,  aims to set renewable volume obligations (RVOs) for 2023, 2024 and 2025. It also addresses the generation of electric renewable identification numbers (e-RINs) from eligible sources of biomass-based electricity. A comment period on the rulemaking is open through Feb. 10.

The EPA is also expected to finalize a rulemaking that would allow year-round sales of E15 in several Midwestern states in March 2023, according to the  agenda.  The agency in early December  delivered a proposed rule to the OMB  related to a petition filed by several Midwest governors seeking a solution to year-round E15 sales in their states. A summary published by the OMB explains that the proposed rule “implements a provision in the Clean Air Act which provides that a governor of a state may request that the 1-psi volatility waiver provided in the statute for gasoline-ethanol blends be removed in the state.” The agency said it has received such a request from Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin.

According to the  agenda,  the USDA is also working to complete a rulemaking of interest to the bioenergy and biorefining sector. The agency is expected to release a notice of proposed rulemaking in February related to its Biobased Markets Program (Biopreferred). The action will add 2018 Farm Bill provisions to the program, specifically proposing to codify program guidance into the regulations. The rulemaking is expected to reduce burden on both the applicants and the agency by reducing requirements, clarifying requirements, streamlining the application and certification process, and increasing efficiencies in program delivery.

Additional information on the Fall 2022 Unified Agenda of Regulatory and Deregulatory Actions is available on the OMB  website

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jan 3, 2023

The government of Brazil on Dec. 23 announced it will extend its suspension of the import tariff on ethanol through at least the end of January. The Renewable Fuels Association is calling the extension “a positive first step toward a permanent resolution.”

Brazil in March 2022 announced that it would waive its import tariff on ethanol through the end of 2022 in an effort to alleviate inflationary pressures resulting from the pandemic, which were further aggravated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That tariff was previously set at 18 percent.

“We are pleased that the Brazilian government has extended the suspension of its import tariff on ethanol,” said Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the RFA. “This is a positive first step toward a permanent resolution and it sends a favorable signal to the marketplace. As we look ahead to 2023, we stand ready to work with incoming President Lula da Silva and his administration to restore free and fair ethanol trade between our nations. As the world’s leaders in the production and use of low-carbon ethanol, we must set an example of free trade and open markets for other nations to follow.”

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Renewable Fuels Association

Dec 22, 2022

The Renewable Fuels Association’s annual review of vehicle owner’s manuals and warranty statements indicates that E15 is explicitly approved by the manufacturer for use in the vast majority of model year 2023 cars and light trucks. Notably, for the first time, Mitsubishi lists E15 as an approved fuel in some of its 2023 vehicles. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has approved the use of E15 in all vehicles built in 2001 or later, representing more than 96 percent of the vehicles on the road today, but automakers only began listing E15 as a recommended fuel in 2012.

According to the RFA analysis of model year 2023 vehicle owner’s manuals and warranty statements and current market share data, more than 94 percent of new light-duty gasoline vehicles are  explicitly approved by the manufacturer to use E15.  Only Mercedes-Benz, Mazda, and Volvo do not list E15 as a recommended fuel in their owner’s manuals, even though E15 is legally approved by EPA for use in all vehicles built since 2001. Mitsubishi lists E15 as an approved fuel for the 2023 Outlander, but the fuel does not appear in owner’s manuals for other models.

Notably, BMW and Mini continue to approve the use of gasoline containing up to 25 percent ethanol in their vehicles. New for 2023, Toyota’s GR Supra—co-developed with BMW—also follows suit by allowing E25.

When it comes to the E85 Flex Fuel blend, however, the story remains vastly different. Far fewer models are reported  available as flex-fuel vehicles,  or FFVs, that run on fuel blends containing up to 85 percent fuel ethanol. As was the case in 2022, only Ford and General Motors now offer FFVs in the United States, most of which are for fleet purchases only. For model year 2023, the only FFVs available to consumers are select Ford Explorer, F-150 and Transit models. As recently as model year 2015, more than 80 different FFV models from eight manufacturers were available to consumers.

“We’re happy to see automakers continuing to embrace lower-cost and lower-carbon E15,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “As we saw throughout 2022, higher blends of ethanol provide great value to drivers and are better for the environment, the climate and public health. Today’s ethanol reduces greenhouse gas emissions by half compared to gasoline, and we’re well on the way to  net-zero ethanol.  As great as the support is for E15, American consumers need more options at the gas pump, and we will continue to encourage automakers and the Biden administration to recommit to FFV production to help us reach carbon neutrality by mid-century, and to provide drivers a practical and affordable high-performing fuel option.”

At present, more than 5,600 gas stations sell E85 and other flex fuels in the United States, and over 2,800 offer E15.  Click here for locations and a price tracker,  and  click here  for more information on ethanol blends.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Dec 21, 2022

In Panama City, Panama, U.S. Grains Council staff in Latin America and the Caribbean (LTA) participated in the VII Energy Week organized by the Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE), the Energy Secretariat of Panama and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), in collaboration with EnergyNet.

Delegates from more than 21 countries attended the event, the most relevant in the region, to discuss energy-related topics, including governments, companies, academia and international agencies. Issues highlighted in this year’s Energy Week edition included innovation in the energy sector; access and efficiency; sustainable energy development; renewable energies; regional security; and integration mechanisms.

Juan Sebastian Diaz, USGC Latin America regional ethanol consultant, participated in the “Sustainable Mobility” session to discuss opportunities and challenges facing biofuels and electromobility in the region. Diaz was joined on the panel by representatives from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the IDB, U.N. Environment Programme, the World Bank (WB) and the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA).

“During the panel, the Council was able to demonstrate that biofuels, and particularly ethanol, are still valid within the region as one of the most efficient and easily accessible mechanisms to meet the international call to decarbonize the transportation system in their respective countries,” Diaz said. “We highlighted the momentum that Central America is having by embracing biofuels programs in the near future and encouraged the audience to expand ethanol usage based on their current capabilities.”

According to OLADE, the transportation sector in Latin America and the Caribbean is responsible for nearly 22 percent of the emissions of short-lived climate pollutants and represents 15 percent of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. If the trend scenario continues, it is estimated that GHG emissions will increase by 50 percent by 2050. Transportation is one of the primary sources of air pollution in cities, strongly impacting public health.

In this sense, biofuels, especially ethanol produced from corn, emerge as a sustainable option to provide efficient fuel and help reduce carbon dioxide (C02) emissions in the transportation sector. The Council has a regional incidence strategy in the area to promote public policies favorable to biofuels, as well as to achieve higher blends of ethanol mixed with gasoline and reduce trade barriers to the entry of U.S. ethanol.

“We believe the Council’s participation in this important event helps create awareness of government officials in the region about the role of biofuels in the energy transition,” Diaz said. “During the panel, attendees agreed that ethanol is a simple, practical and economical way to decarbonize the region’s transportation system.”

The Council engages governments and industries across the Latin America and Caribbean region to develop the ethanol market and promote sales of U.S. ethanol. USGC ethanol promotion efforts focus on at least four areas, including demonstrating the environmental and human health benefits of ethanol; working with local leaders to develop biofuels policies with a role for trade; addressing trade barriers and logistical constraints to imports; and showing ethanol’s value as a source of octane.

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