Aug 27, 2024
The USDA currently predicts fiscal year (FY) 2025 U.S. ethanol exports will reach $4.3 billion. Export volumes are expected to edge up to a record 2 billion gallons, according to the agency’s latest quarterly trade outlook, published Aug. 27.
USDA’s FY 2025 begins Oct. 1, 2024, and ends Sept. 30, 2025. The expected $4.3 billion in FY 2025 ethanol exports is unchanged from the revised FY 2024 forecast. Ethanol export unit value is expected slightly lower following U.S. corn prices, the USDA said in the report.
According to the agency, little change is aggregate sales to top export markets is expected as blending increases in Ontario and Quebec slow, Europe’s ethanol prices moderate further or stabilize, India’s ethanol feedstock supplies recover, and the recovery of Colombia’s blending rates come to an end. Brazil’s 18% import duty on ethanol is expected to keep the arbitrage window closed for U.S. sales.
FY 2024 ethanol exports are raised $300 million from May to a record $4.3 billion, an increase of $800 million over the previous year and $400 million higher than the previous record, which was set in FY 2022. Export volumes for FY 2024 are expected to reach 1.9 billion gallons.
The report indicates that U.S. ethanol is generally more price competitive than Brazilian product, helping to boost global U.S. sales. Canada has become the world’s largest ethanol importer, and the U.S. continues to supply all the country’s ethanol imports, according to the USDA. The U.S. ethanol industry is also the top foreign supplier to the European Union and United Kingdom, which are currently the world’s second and third largest ethanol importers. Other important markets, such as India, Colombia, South Korea, the Philippines, Mexico and Peru, are seeing strong-to-record U.S. sales. The window of arbitrage for U.S. sales to Brazil has remained mostly closed this year due to the 16% duty, which was raised to 18% in January.
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