The USDA on Nov. 26 confirmed its forecast that fiscal year (FY) 2025 ethanol exports will set a record in terms of volume. The expected value of those ethanol exports, however, was reduced, according to the agency’s latest quarterly trade outlook. 

The USDA said its forecast for FY 2025 ethanol exports is lowered by $100 million to $4.2 billion, but still tying last year’s record. The ethanol export unit value may fall slightly following corn prices but is offset by slightly higher volumes just above last year’s record 1.8 billion gallons. 

Little change in sales is expected for the current top export markets of Canada, the U.K., the European Union, India and Colombia. The USDA said this is due to modest, if any, change in ethanol blending for the U.K. and Canada’s Ontario and Quebec provinces, somewhat lower prices across Europe, some recovery in the supply of India’s ethanol molasses feedstock as well as continued use of broken grains and corn in India’s ethanol production, and the expectation that recovery in Colombia’s blending rate is largely complete. The USDA also noted that Bazil’s 18% import duty on ethanol will continue to weigh on the U.S. ethanol export opportunity to that market.  

A full copy of the quarterly trade outlook is available on the USDA website.

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