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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Nov 16, 2020

The global biofuels industry has been strongly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a report released by the International Energy Agency in early November, with production down approximately 11.6 percent when compared to 2019.

The IEA predicts global transport biofuel production will be at 144 billion liters (38.04 billion gallons) in 2020, down 11.6 percent from the record set last year and the first reduction in annual production in two decades. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the IEA predicted a 3 percent growth in biofuel production for 2020.

Global ethanol production is expected to be at 98 billion liters this year, down 14.5 percent from 115 billion liters in 2019. About 80 percent of that reduction is expected to occur in Brazil and the U.S., according to the IEA. Global biodiesel production is expected to reach 46 billion liters this year, down 5 percent from 2019. Most of that reduction is expected in European markets.

If demand for transportation fuel rebounds to near pre-pandemic levels and policy support in key markets continues to expand, the IEA predicts that global production of transportation biofuels could rebound to the 2019 level of production in 2021, at approximately 162 billion liters. Production is expected to grow by an additional 4 percent in 2022 to 169 billion liters. The IEA said that the majority of that growth is expected to occur in Asian and South American countries.

During the 2023 to 2025 time period, the IEA said average global output of biofuels is expected to be at 182 billion liters. Ethanol is expected to account for 109 billion liters of that volume, with Brazil, China and India expected to be key growth markets. Biodiesel and renewable diesel production is expected to reach 63 billion liters annually over the 2023 to 2025 time period, up 30 percent from 2019. According to the IEA, expanding renewable diesel production in the U.S. and Singapore is expected to account for more than half of that increase.

A full copy of the IEA’s Renewables 2020 report can be downloaded form the agency’s  website.

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AgriNews

Nov 16, 2020

ELLISVILLE, Mo. — The ethanol industry is familiar with adversity and the recently elected chairperson of the Renewable Fuels Association believes a rebound is on the horizon.

Jeanne McCaherty, CEO of Guardian Energy Management, was selected as the new chair at the RFA’s annual meeting. McCaherty becomes the first female chairperson in the organization’s history and first among any national ethanol trade association.

As CEO of Guardian Energy Management, McCaherty, of Prior Lake, Minnesota, provides executive management for Guardian Energy LLC, Guardian Energy Holdings LLC and Hankinson Renewable Energy LLC, three ethanol biorefining businesses.

She has a master’s degree in biochemistry from the University of Missouri and serves on the board of directors for the Renewable Product Marketing Group LLC and the board of directors for the Minnesota Biofuels Association.

McCaherty, a longtime proponent and advocate for low-carbon renewable fuels, also serves on the Minnesota Governor’s Biofuels Council to develop recommendations to increase the incorporation of biofuels in transportation fuels in Minnesota. She succeeds Neil Koehler, co-founder and co-CEO of Pacific Ethanol, in chairing the RFA board.

 “Renewable fuels have a critically important role to play in improving liquid transportation fuels. I am excited to work with the members and staff of the RFA to continue to position renewable fuels and co-products to support rural economies, improve air quality, and provide better options for consumers,” McCaherty said.

She spoke of the challenges the industry faces and federal actions that show promise for the future in a recent podcast.

“The ethanol industry is really a reasonably new industry overall and it has had a lot of very highs and a lot of very lows in the history and the evolution of that business. I would say that 2020 probably has been the low point for the industry. The pandemic has been challenging for the ethanol industry the same as it has for all other industries,” McCaherty said.

“At one point in the ethanol industry, we were down demand-wise by 45%, so prices tumbled to record lows and we’ve lost somewhere between $7 billion and $10 billion in revenue due to COVID.

“In that kind of a year it’s very difficult to say it’s a really high point in the ethanol industry, but this industry is very familiar with adversity. Many of the owners/investors are corn producers. They’re also investors in ethanol and they’re used to adversity. This isn’t something that will keep them down.”

Good News

In the midst of the pandemic, there has been good news on the ethanol front.

U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue announced Oct. 8 a series of grants as part of Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program. The agency is investing at least $22 million in grant funding to increase demand for ethanol and biodiesel.

USDA said more funding may be available from a total $100 million pool, with the $22 million projected to increase demand by more than 150 million gallons. HBIIP helps fuel distribution centers to convert to higher blends through equipment and infrastructure improvements cost sharing.

Two bills in the U.S. House — the Next Generation Fuels Act and the Renewable Fuels Standard Integrity Act — also would benefit the ethanol industry if passed.

“The Next Generation Fuels Act establishes a 98 (research octane number) fuel standard for the highest octane and also speaks to the lower greenhouse gas emissions. So, low carbon while high octane and we’re pretty excited about that. It puts a limit on the aromatics and really pushes higher ethanol blends going forward,” McCaherty noted.

“That’s one we’ll be working on and helping to move that further. It has a number of other conditions in it, including things around the Reid vapor pressure and some of the (compliance with fuel economy) credits around flex-fuel vehicles. It’s very positive for the ethanol industry and one that we’re very excited about.”

The RFS Integrity Act aims at requiring more transparency for companies seeking Small Refinery Exemptions through the EPA. The bill has been rolled into a new House energy bill, the Clean Economy Jobs and Innovation Act.

“That would set a deadline for refiners to request their exemptions from the RFS and would require the EPA to publicly release the name of those refiners requesting a waiver so that we get more transparency around SREs, how they’re working and make sure the RFS is upheld,” McCaherty said.

No Relief

Congress has yet to include the ethanol industry in any COVID-19 relief packages and McCaherty addressed that issue.

“It means obviously that we’re going to continue on without aid. It’s a very difficult time. There’s $7 billion to $10 billion in lost revenue for the ethanol industry that we believe has been a result of COVID. It’s been a very difficult time,” she said.

“We’ve had plants that have been idled. We’ve had some of the plants that have had to furlough their folks. Some are still not back up and running. The industry is essential and critical for U.S., but at the some time if a COVID relief package isn’t in the cards the industry will continue and we’ll continue to put ourselves on solid footing and move forward.”

In light of this year’s challenges, McCaherty commented on the general mood of ethanol producers.

“This is a group that’s used to adversity. They’re used to hard work and hard times. This has not been an easy year for anyone. I think everybody is a little worn out, not just ethanol producers, but everyone is a little bit worn out over COVID, but at the same time I think everybody realizes that it’s not time to sit down, but time to roll up our sleeves and continue to work,” she said.

“Ethanol is critical to these rural economies. Many of our producers also have stakes in the ethanol world and I think the mood generally is let’s get to work, let’s continue to work at positioning the ethanol industry to where it belongs.”

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Nov 12, 2020

U.S. fuel ethanol production increased by nearly 2 percent the week ending Nov. 6, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Nov. 4. Weekly ending stocks were up nearly 3 percent.

U.S. ethanol production reached 977,000 barrels per day the week ending Nov. 6, up 16,000 barrels per day when compared to the 961,000 barrels per day of production reported for the previous week. When compared to the 1.03 million barrels per day produced during the same week of last year, production was down 53,000 barrels per day.

Production of fuel ethanol has stabilized in recent months after falling to historic lows in the spring of 2020 due to market impacts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Ethanol production hit a low of 537,000 barrels per day the week ending April 24, but began to recover in May and June as travel restrictions associated with the pandemic began to ease and demand for transportation fuel began to recover. Production levels since July have generally stabilized in the range of 900,000 to 950,000 barrels per day, down roughly 10 percent when compared to the same period of last year.

Weekly ending stocks of fuel ethanol increased to 20.129 million barrels the week ending Nov. 6, up 484,000 barrels when compared to the 19.675 million reported for the previous week. Stocks of fuel ethanol have fallen over the past several months after reaching a record high of 27.289 million barrels the week ending April 17. When compared to the same week of last year, ethanol stocks were down 826,000 barrels.  

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Nov 9, 2020

The USDA on Nov. 6 released select commodity tables from its USDA Agricultural Projections to 2030 report, which is scheduled to be released in full in February 2021. The report predicts a slight growth in corn use for ethanol over the next decade.

According to the USDA’s projections, corn planted acres are expected to remain relatively flat over the next 10 years. Planted acres were at 89.7 million in 2019-’20, are expected to reach 91 million in 2020-’21, fall to 90 million from 2021-’22 through 2025-’26, fall to 89 million in 2026-’27 and remain at that level through 2030-’31. Similarly, harvested corn acres were at 81.3 million in 2019-’20, are expected to increase to 82.5 million in 2020-’21 and remain at that level through 2025-’26, fall to 81.5 million in 2016-’27 and remain at that level through 2030-’31.

Corn yields are expected to increase steady over the next decade, from 167.5 bushels per acre in 2019-’20 to 198.5 bushels per acre in 2030-’31.

The USDA’s data shows 4.852 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production in 2019-’20. That volume is expected to grow to 5.05 billion bushels in 2020-’21, increase to 5.125 billion bushels in 2021-’22 and remain at that level through 2027-’28, and increase to 5.15 billion bushels in 2028-’29 and remain at that level through 2030-’31.

Additional information is available on the USDA  website.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Nov 3, 2020

The Governor’s Council on Biofuels has given Gov. Tim Walz its consensus report on the steps needed to grow Minnesota’s biofuels industry and get the state back on track to meet renewable energy goals.

Walz charged the 15-member council to recommend policies to accelerate achievement of Minnesota’s biofuels and greenhouse gas reduction goals. The group worked over the past nine months to find ways to achieve this that help farmers, rural communities, the natural environment, and economically disadvantaged populations.

“I am a longtime supporter of biofuels because they are good for both our environment and our economy. A strong biofuels industry in Minnesota not only provides good-paying jobs and helps our economy grow, but it also aids in reducing harmful greenhouse gases,” said Governor Tim Walz. “I am grateful for the work of each member of the Council, and I look forward to reviewing the full set of recommendations.”

The Council’s recommendations  (pdf) include accelerating the state’s move toward 15 percent ethanol content in gasoline; adopting a Low Carbon Fuel Standard; increasing biofuels use in the state fleet; increasing public understanding and marketing of biofuels; and developing advanced biofuels.

“Agriculture has a big role to play in helping our state achieve its renewable energy goals,” Minnesota Agriculture Commissioner Thom Petersen said. “I want to thank all the council members for helping us figure out how to move Minnesota toward those goals in a way that will be good for producers and consumers.”

Minnesota adopted statutory goals in the 2007 Next Generation Energy Act to replace 30 percent of the state’s petroleum use with biofuels by 2025. But is not on track to meet those goals, due to a combination of low market prices and changes in federal policy.

”Gov. Walz, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Commissioner Petersen convened us to ensure that Minnesota homegrown biofuels play a vital role in Minnesota’s response to the climate challenge,” said Mike Bull, director of policy and external affairs at the Center for Energy and Environment, and a member of the council. “I’m thankful for their leadership and grateful to my fellow council members for our good work together.”

The biofuels industry provides important markets for agricultural commodities and generates an estimated $6.7 billion in annual economic impact.

Members of the council represented the biofuels industry, agricultural and farm groups, the service station industry, the wood products industry, and energy and environmental organizations.

“Our Biofuels Council approved the final report today culminating from a year of work among the stakeholders,” said Brian Thalmann, board member of the Minnesota Corn Growers Association, and a member of the council. “It recognizes the value that expanded biofuel use will provide to Minnesota’s citizens and the environment and provides recommendations to accelerate achievement of our petroleum replacement goals. I look forward to engagement by the stakeholders moving forward as we work with state officials in the implementation of these ideas.”

The Minnesota Department of Agriculture (MDA) facilitated the Council’s work. Find more resources about the Council’s goals and view the report on the  MDA’s website.

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Reuters

Oct 30, 2020

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The United States and Brazil, the two leading ethanol producers, see potential for a large increase in global use of the biofuel as an outright way to cut carbon emissions while the world transitions to all-electric cars, according to industry representatives this week.

“There is a lot of hope (to cut emissions) related to electric vehicles, but the current fleet will still be around for a long time,” said Brian Healy, director for ethanol market development at the U.S. Grains Council, adding that biofuel blending in combustion engine cars is the quickest way to improve air quality.

Speaking during the Datagro’s International Conference on Sugar and Ethanol this week, Healy said countries should move faster to implement plans to blend ethanol to gasoline.

Several countries and regions around the world are discussing or setting targets to increase use of biofuels such as China, Canada, Britain, India, Mexico, Vietnam, South Africa and Australia. But there have been delays everywhere.

Analysts see an unwillingness from some countries to depend on renewable energy sources if they can not produce them, as is the case with China which postponed its target for a national E10 blending policy.

Lara Bacellar, trading manager at Brazil’s Copersucar SA, one of the world’s largest ethanol merchants, said that if all mandates and policies for blending in the world were fulfilled, including the U.S. E15 proposition, demand could jump as much as 55 billion liters (12.1 billion gallons) per year.

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Energy AgWired

Oct 30, 2020

The  U.S. Grains Council  (USGC) signed an official memorandum of understanding (MOU) this week with the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) aimed at expanding the use and availability of ethanol in Vietnam. The agreement promises to further a strong partnership between the two nations and encourage expanded ethanol use throughout Southeast Asia.

“The Council stands ready to support the MOU and the Vietnamese ethanol industry,” said Ryan LeGrand, USGC president and chief executive officer, who provided virtual remarks for the MOU signing. “The MOU helps further an already strong partnership between the U.S. and Vietnamese industries and governments. We thank the Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), the U.S. Embassy and Consulate in Vietnam and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA’s FAS) for their ongoing dialogue and partnership.”

The MOU was signed during the 2020 Indo-Pacific Business Forum, which took place this week virtually and in-person in Hanoi, Vietnam. This year’s forum was aimed at advancing a vision for the Indo-Pacific region as a free and open region comprised of independent, strong and prosperous nations. Hosted by the U.S. Trade and Development Agency, the event is part of overall efforts to establish the United States as an essential and enduring partner to Southeast Asia.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Oct 28, 2020

U.S. fuel ethanol production increased by 3 percent the week ending Oct. 23, while weekly ending stocks fell by nearly 1 percent, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Oct. 28.

U.S. ethanol production expanded to an average of 941,000 barrels per day the week ending Oct. 23, up 28,000 barrels per day from the average of 913,000 barrels per day reported for the previous week. When compared to the 1.004 million barrels per day produced during the same week of 2019, production was down 63,000 barrels per day.

Production of fuel ethanol has stabilized in recent months after falling to historic lows last spring due to market impacts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Ethanol production hit a low of 537,000 barrels per day the week ending April 24, but began to recover in May and June as travel restrictions associated with the pandemic began to ease and demand for transportation fuel began to recover. Production levels since July have generally stabilized in the range of 900,000 to 950,000 barrels per day, down roughly 10 percent when compared to the same period of last year.

Weekly ending stocks of fuel ethanol fell to 19.601 million barrels the week ending Oct. 16, down 120,000 barrels when compared to the 19.721 million barrels reported for the previous week. Stocks of fuel ethanol have fallen over the past few months after reaching a record high of 27.289 million barrels the week ending April 17. When compared to the same week of last year, ethanol stocks were down 1.498 million barrels.

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