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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jul 18, 2022

By Geoff Cooper

It’s been said that “the cure for high prices is … high prices.” In other words, when prices for a product rise to an unbearable level, consumers reduce consumption or stop buying the product altogether. In turn, supplies of the product increase and prices eventually fall.

But in the case of gas prices—which set a new record of $5 per gallon in June—there is a better cure available that won’t force Americans to cancel their daily commutes or abandon summer road trips. At gas stations across the country, the cure for high prices isn’t more high prices—it’s ethanol. Refiners and blenders can lower gas prices for consumers simply by adding more ethanol, which has been $1–$1.50 per gallon cheaper than gasoline for much of the summer.

However, refiners don’t make ethanol and they don’t like the idea of blending more, even though market forces suggest they should. Fortunately, the Biden administration has taken action this summer to compel refiners to increase the availability and use of ethanol—the antidote to record high pump prices.

Back in June, the Environmental Protection Agency took regulatory action to bring order and certainty to the Renewable Fuel Standard, giving our industry a solid foundation to grow production, boost energy security and expand the use of low-carbon renewable fuels. Specifically, EPA set the 2022 blending requirement for conventional renewable fuel at 15.25 billion gallons—the highest ever—and put an end to the abuse of the refinery exemption program.

The Renewable Fuel Standard reduces the price of gasoline in two ways. First, the RFS drives greater usage of ethanol, which is less expensive than petroleum-based gasoline (recently selling at a discount of roughly $1.50 per gallon at the wholesale level). Additionally, RFS compliance credits, known as renewable identification numbers, or RINs, are attached to each gallon of ethanol sold domestically. These are provided free of charge and help offset the blender’s cost of gasoline.

Second, the use of ethanol extends the overall fuel supply and reduces the consumption of petroleum-based gasoline, thereby lowering the demand for crude oil and refined products. In a 2019 study, Dr. Philip Verleger determined that by expanding fuel supplies, the RFS reduced the price of crude oil by $6 per barrel on average from 2015 to 2018. In turn, gasoline prices were reduced by an average of 22 cents per gallon, the equivalent of $250 annually for a typical household.

The EPA and the Biden administration are restoring integrity and stability to the RFS program after several years of mismanagement and abuse by the previous administration. The combination of a strong RVO for 2022, restoration of illegally waived volume from 2016, and a new direction for the small refinery exemption program puts the RFS program on solid footing for the future. We thank Administrator Regan and President Biden for honoring their commitments to implement the RFS in a way that is fair, transparent and focused on growth—giving us a great steppingstone for moving forward in the future.

In addition, President Biden, Regan and USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack worked to ensure lower-cost E15 is available all summer for consumers. Meanwhile, a group of Midwest state governors are also working to make year-round E15 permanent in their states. Summertime E15 will help lower the cost for consumers as they travel this summer and all year long.

Clearly, the cure for high prices at the pump isn’t more high prices. The cure is opening the market to higher volumes of ethanol and spurring competition. RFA will continue to lead and advocate for a larger role for ethanol in the United States fuel supply. We could not be more hopeful for the opportunities in the future as we continue moving forward, and the action we’re seeing from the White House this summer gives us cause for more optimism.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jul 14, 2022

The U.S. ethanol industry delivered a very strong second quarter, according to the latest quarterly report issued by CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange on July 14. Ethanol profits and production remain robust despite record gas prices, according to the report.

The ethanol industry experienced few visible signs of demand destruction during the second quarter despite a spike in retail gasoline prices, rising inflation, aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate actions, a significant showdown in the U.S. economy and deteriorating consumer sentiment, according to CoBank.

The report indicates that ethanol production during the second quarter was down slightly when comparted to the first quarter, averaging 15.5 billion gallons on an annualized basis. According to CoBank, second quarter operating margins were at 33 cents per gallon, well above the five-year average of 22 cents per gallon. CoBank said the relatively high margins were driven by a 16 percent increase in fuel ethanol prices, which exceed input costs of corn and natural gas.

U.S. ethanol exports reached a four-year high in April, at 185 million gallons, with sales diversified among several key trading partners. Overall, ethanol exports for the first four months of the year were up 67 percent, according to CoBank. U.S. exports of dried distillers grains (DDGS) were also up during the fourth month period, but at a lower rate of 8 percent. The report also notes that consumer gasoline demand remains stable despite prices that have reached $4.88 per gallon, up from $3.10 per gallon a year ago.

A full copy the CoBank Knowledge Exchange’s latest quarterly report can be downloaded from the company’s website

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jul 13, 2022

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecasts for 2022 and 2023 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released July 13. The forecast for 2023 fuel ethanol consumption was also increased.

The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 1.02 million barrels per day in 2022, up from the June STEO  forecast of 1 million barrels per day. The agency also increased its forecast for 2023 fuel ethanol production to 1 million barrels per day, up from 990,000 barrels per day forecasted last month. Production averaged 980,000 barrels per day in 2021.

Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.02 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, falling to 1.01 million barrels per day in the second quarter. Production during the third quarter is expected to remain at 1.01 million barrels per day before returning to 1.02 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2023, ethanol production is expected to average 990,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, 1 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 990,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1.02 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Fuel ethanol blending is currently expected to average 910,000 per day in 2022, a forecast maintained from the June STEO, and 920,000 barrels per day in 2023, up from 910,000 barrels per day predicted last month. Fuel ethanol blending was at 910,000 barrels per day in 2021.

According to the EIA, fuel ethanol consumption for the first half of 2022 was up when compared to the same period of last year. The agency said the increase is primarily attributed to more gasoline consumption. Similar levels of gasoline and ethanol consumption are expected for the second half of this year. The EIA currently predicts that fuel ethanol consumption will remain around 2022 levels next year and that the ethanol share of U.S. gasoline consumption will be near 10.3 percent. However, if favorable blend economics for fuel ethanol, driven by lower relative fuel prices, and high RIN prices persist, the fuel ethanol share of gasoline consumption could potentially increase.

The EIA also said consumption of biofuels has risen in the U.S. this year. That growth is expected to continue, according to the agency. Increased demand for transportation fuels, higher 2022 Renewable Fuel Standard blending obligations, and new renewable diesel production capacity coming online all contribute to that expected growth.

The EIA noted that prices for renewable identification numbers (RINs) have increased in 2022, reaching near record-high prices, which has facilitated growing biofuel consumption. When compared to the first half of 2021, ethanol consumption for the first half of 2022 was up 32,000 barrels per day, or 3 percent. During the same period, renewable diesel consumption grew by 32,000 barrels per day, or 46 percent, while the consumption of other biofuels increased by 6,000 barrels per day, or 133 percent. Biodiesel consumption was unchanged, according to the EIA.

The EIA currently predicts that renewable diesel consumption will average 116,000 barrels per day in 2022, up 41,000 barrels per day or 53 percent when compared to last year. Renewable diesel consumption is expected to average 164,000 barrels per day in 2023. The EIA cautioned that that forecast assumes that some of the capacity scheduled to come online in 2022 and 2023 will have delays or be affected by high agricultural feedstock costs.

Because 1 gallon of renewable diesel produces more RIN credits under the RFS than biodiesel and faces no infrastructure or blending constraints, the EIA said it expects new renewable diesel plants to be brought online to secure scarce oil feedstocks, such as soybean oil, outpacing biodiesel refineries and limiting biodiesel production. The agency forecasts biodiesel consumption to increase slightly from 2021 levels this year, but to decrease in 2023 as renewable diesel increasingly satisfies RFS requirements. Biodiesel production for 2022 is expected to fall 8 percent when compared to last year, averaging less than 100,000 barrels per day, the lowest annual average since 2015.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jul 12, 2022

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released July 12. The 2022-’23 corn outlook is for increased supplies and higher ending stocks.

The USDA beginning stocks are raised 25 million bushels, to 1.51 billion bushels, based on reduced feed and residual use for 2021-’22 as indicated in the agency’s June 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production for 2022-’23 is forecast 45 million bushels higher, at 14.505 billion bushels, based on greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. Projected yield is unchanged at 177 bushels per acre.

The USDA maintained its June forecast that 5.375 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production in 2022-’23, flat with 2022-’21. Approximately 5.033 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production in 2020-’21. The USDA also maintained its June forecasts for feed and residual use, along with food, seed and industrial use.

With no use changes, ending stocks are up 70 million bushels, to 1.47 billion bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.65 per bushel.

The USDA’s forecast for foreign corn production is down, with reductions for Russia, the European Union and Kenya, partially offset by an increase for Paraguay. Russia corn production is lowered reflecting a cut in area. EU corn production is reduced with a forecast decline for Italy. For 2021-’22, corn production is raised for Paraguay with increases to both area and yield.

Major global trade changes for 2022-’23 include larger corn exports for Paraguay with a reduction for Russia. Corn imports are raised for Zimbabwe. Foreign corn ending stocks are up marginally relative to last month. Global corn stocks, at 313 million tons, are up 2.5 million tons relative to last month.

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Southeast AgNet

Jul 11, 2022

The ethanol industry is hopeful of a final win soon on a permanent fix for restricted summertime E15 sales. The House has already acted as part of a package of livestock competition bills to permanently allow summertime E15 sales that received a Biden waiver just for this summer.

Now, Renewable Fuels Association  chief Geoff Cooper says it’s up to the Senate to act.

“We are expecting that the Senate is going to give those provisions a very hard look if they decide to try to do something before the August recess,” he said.  

The Senate Ag Committee last month advanced two cattle market reform bills, including Senator Chuck Grassley’s Cattle Price Discovery and Transparency Act.

“So, it could fold very well into any package he and his colleagues might be considering. That includes some of the meatpacking provisions and other things that he’s been focused on,” Cooper said.

As for E15’s chances after seven Midwest Republicans broke ranks and backed the House bill.

“We would expect the same thing to happen in the Senate. In fact, there’s probably more bipartisan interest in the Senate around the provisions that were in that bill that slipped through the House,” he said.

And ahead of the November elections, both parties will be looking for anything they can point to as possibly reducing near-record gas prices.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jul 7, 2022

The U.S. exported 147.06 million gallons of ethanol and 966,108 metric tons of distillers grains in May, according to data released by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service on July 7. Exports of ethanol were up when compared to May 2021, while distillers grains exports were down.

The 147.06 million gallons of ethanol exported in May was down when compared to the 185.19 million gallons exported in April, which was the highest reported monthly export level in four years. May exports, however, were more than double the 70.39 million gallons reported for the same month of last year.

The U.S. exported ethanol to more than 40 countries in May. Canada was the top destination at 41.8 million gallons, followed by South Korea at 19.33 million gallons and the Netherlands at 15.41 million gallons.

The value of U.S. ethanol exports reached $410.39 million in May, down from $496.02 million the previous month, but up from $159.32 million in May 2021.

The U.S. exported a total of 725.91 million gallons of ethanol during the first five months of 2022 at a value of $1.93 billion, compared to 582.36 million gallons exported during the same period of last year at a value of $1.06 billion.

The 966,108 metric tons of distillers grains exported in May was up when compared to the 813,749 metric tons exported in April, but down from 1.04 million metric tons exported in May 2021.

The U.S. exported distillers grains to approximately three dozen countries in May. Mexico was the top destination for U.S. distillers grains exports at 229,231 metric tons, followed by South Korea at 123,077 metric tons and Vietnam at 111,080 metric tons.

The value of U.S. distillers grains exports reached $311.85 million in May, up from both $243.12 million in April and $286.58 in May of last year.

Total U.S. distillers grains exports for the first five months of the year reached 4.66 million metric tons at a value of $1.36 billion, compared to 4.49 million metric tons exported during the same period of 2021 at a value of $1.18 billion.

Additional data is available on the USDA FAS website

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jul 6, 2022

U.S. operable production capacity for ethanol and renewable diesel expanded in April, while biodiesel capacity fell slightly, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on July 5. Feedstock consumption was up when compared to April 2021.

Total capacity for ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel and other fuels, defined to include renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and other biofuels and biointermediates, reached 21.479 billion gallons in April, up from both 21.022 billion gallons the previous month and 20.777 billion gallons in April 2021.

Ethanol capacity was at 17.34 billion gallons in April, up 17 MMgy when compared to the 17.323 billion gallons of capacity reported for March. Ethanol capacity, however, was down 56 MMgy when compared to the 17.396 billion gallons of capacity in place during the same month of last year.

Biodiesel capacity fell to 2.217 billion gallons in April, down 14 MMgy when compared to the 2.231 billion gallons of capacity reported for March. When compared to the 2.41 billion gallons of capacity in place in April 2021, biodiesel capacity was down 193 MMgy.

Capacity for renewable diesel and associated fuels expanded to 1.922 billion gallons in April, up 454 MMgy when compared to the 1.468 billion gallons of capacity in place the previous month. Renewable diesel capacity was up 951 MMgy when compared to the 971 MMgy of capacity in place in April 2021.

U.S. biofuel producers consumed an estimated 25.273 billion pounds of feedstock in April, down from 27.193 billion pounds the previous month, but up when compared to 24.243 billion pounds of feedstock consumed in April 2021.

Biofuel producers consumed 23.294 billion pounds of corn in April, down from 25.383 billion pounds the previous month, but up from 22.821 billion pounds in April 2021. Producers also consumed 164 million pounds of grain sorghum, up from 97 million pounds in March. The EIA withheld the volume of grain sorghum that went to biofuel production in April 2021 to avoid disclosure of individual company data.

According to the EIA, 839 million pounds of soybean oil was used to produce biofuels in April, down from 908 million pounds in March, but up when compared to the 700 million pounds consumed in April of last year. Approximately 211 million pounds of corn oil went to biofuel production in April, down slightly when compared to the 212 million pounds consumed in the previous month and flat when compared to the 211 million pounds consumed in April 2021. Biofuel producers also consumed 101 million pounds of canola oil in April. The volume of canola oil that went to biofuel production in March 2022 and April 2021 was withheld by the EIA to avoid disclosure of individual company data.

Biofuel producers also consumed 402 million pounds of yellow grease, 130 million pounds of beef tallow, 57 million pounds of white grease and 13 million pounds of poultry fat in April, compared to 338 million pounds, 127 million pounds 47 million pounds and 15 million pounds, respectively, in March. Biofuel producers consumed 248 million pounds of yellow grease, 93 million pounds of beef tallow, 64 million pounds of white grease, and 36 pounds of poultry fat in April 2021. Biofuel producers also consumed 3 million pounds of other waste fats, oils and greases in April 2021. The EIA withheld data on the consumption of other fats, oils and greases in April 2022 and March 2022 to avoid disclosing individual company data.

According to the EIA, biofuel producers also consumed 62 million pounds of feedstock classified as “other” recycled feeds and wastes in April, down from both 66 million pounds in March 63 million pounds in  April 2021.

Additional data is available on the EIA  website

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US Grains Council

Jun 27, 2022

Turkey is the largest buyer of U.S. distillers’ dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in the Middle East region. However, due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, the U.S. Grains Council was unable to engage Turkish buyers via in-person programs for nearly two years.

In October 2021, in-person programming resumed when the Council invited a delegation of Turkish buyers to the United States to attend the Distillers’ Grains Technology Conference (DGTC). During the group’s travels, team members were able to learn about U.S. DDGS production, meet with a variety of suppliers and explore export channels. As a result of the program, the team members purchased more than $14 million of U.S. DDGS. The program was accomplished by using Agriculture Trade Promotion (ATP) funds provided by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The team, hosted by the Council and the Illinois Corn Growers Association, visited a U.S. corn farm, river elevators, and Marquis Energy, the largest single-site ethanol plant in the world. Additionally, the team met with agribusiness companies, including StoneX in Chicago, and toured a container port facility in Savannah, Georgia, where they were hosted by two DDGS exporters.

Turkey is a traditional importer of bulk DDGS but has recently bought increasing quantities of DDGS in containers, making the visit timely for evolving marketing opportunities in the Middle East region.

Following the port visit, the team attended the DGTC in Louisville, Kentucky, where they heard about emerging technologies in the corn co-product space, which will likely generate future demand for these products. During the conference, the Council organized individual meetings with U.S. agribusinesses, including CHS, Gavilon, The Andersons, Inc., and Louis Dreyfus Company. The meetings provided a private venue for attendees to conclude negotiations to purchase U.S. DDGS.

Following the trip, the team purchased 40,000 metric tons of U.S. corn co-products valued at more than $14 million. The Council invested $50,000 of ATP funds to execute this program. The resulting $14 million worth of business conducted yielded a return on investment of over $280 per $1 of ATP funds invested.

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