In the News
Aug 24, 2022
U.S. fuel ethanol production capacity was up slightly the week ending Aug. 19, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Aug. 24. Stocks of fuel ethanol were up nearly 2 percent.
Fuel ethanol production averaged 987,000 barrels per day the week ending Aug. 19, up 4,000 barrels per day when compared to the 983,000 barrels per day of production reported for the previous week. When compared to the same week of last year, production for the week ending Aug. 19 was up 54,000 barrels per day.
Stocks of fuel ethanol expanded to 23.807 million barrels the week ending Aug. 19, up 361,000 barrels when compared to the 23.446 million barrels of stocks reported for the previous week. When compared to the same week of last year, stocks for the week ending Aug. 19 were up 2.584 million barrels.
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Aug 23, 2022
As of January 1, 2022, biofuel plant production capacity in the United States reached 21 billion gallons per year (gal/y) from 275 facilities. More than four-fifths of U.S. biofuel production capacity was for fuel ethanol.
Of the 13 states with the most fuel ethanol production capacity, 12 are located in the Midwest. The three states with the most production capacity—Iowa, Nebraska, and Illinois—contain half of the nation’s total ethanol production capacity. As of January 1, 2022, U.S. fuel ethanol production capacity totaled 17.4 billion gal/y, as reported by 192 producers, a 0.2 billion gal/y decrease since the beginning of 2021.
Producers of another biofuel, biodiesel, operate 72 plants nationwide. In January 2022, U.S. biodiesel production capacity totaled 2.3 billion gal/y, a 0.2 billion gal/y decrease from January 2021. More than half of U.S. biodiesel production capacity is in the Midwest, primarily in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. The remainder is mostly located on the Gulf and West Coasts.
In another, much smaller, category of biofuels production, 11 renewable fuel producers were operating in the United States as of January 1, 2022. The facilities produce renewable diesel fuel, renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel, renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and other biofuels and bio intermediate products. Their combined production capacity totals 1.8 billion gal/y, more than double what it was at the beginning of 2021.
Fuel ethanol producers accounted for 81 percent of U.S. total biofuels production capacity, followed by biodiesel producers at 11 percent, and by renewable diesel fuel and other biofuels producers at 8 percent. On August 8, we released our three annual plant production capacity reports: 2022 Fuel Ethanol Production Capacity, 2022 Biodiesel Plant Production Capacity, and 2022 Renewable Diesel Fuel and Other Biofuels Plant Production Capacity. Respondents report biofuels production capacity data in these publications. The three annual reports contain our most up-to-date estimates of the plant production capacity for the U.S. biofuels industry. The reports include biofuels production capacity for operating plants as of January 1, 2022. The names of the reporting plants are organized by state and region.
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Aug 22, 2022
The USDA is scheduled to open a new $100 million, 90-day application window for the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program on Aug. 23, according to a document published in the Federal Register on Aug. 22.
The HBIIP is a competitive grant program that aims to significantly increase the sales and use of higher blends of ethanol and biodiesel by expanding the infrastructure for renewable fuels derived from U.S. agricultural products. Investments made under HBIIP aim to help transportation fueling and biodiesel distribution facilities convert to higher ethanol and biodiesel blends by sharing the costs related to the installation of fuel pumps, related equipment and infrastructure. Under the program, higher blends include ethanol blends of greater than 10 percent and biodiesel blends of greater than 5 percent.
Grants made under the program can cover up to 50 percent of total eligible project costs, up to $5 million. According to the notice, the USDA has set a targeted assistance goal that aims to make approximately 40 percent of funds available to applicants that own 10 or fewer fueling stations/locations. The USDA may also target applicants located in markets that are currently underserved by higher blends and give preference to first time applicants to the HBIIP program, according to the notice.
The USDA has already made three rounds of awards through the HBIIP. The agency awarded $22 million under the program to 40 recipients in 14 states in October 2020, $18.4 million to 23 recipients in 20 states in April 2021, and $26 million to support 34 projects located in 23 states in August 2021.
A full copy of the notice can be downloaded from the USDA website.
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Minneapolis, Aug 19 - The Minnesota Bio-Fuels Association (MN Bio-Fuels) and KS95 FM rewarded drivers who chose E15 during an hour-long promotion at the Holiday station on Old Hudson Road in St Paul earlier today.
The promotion was held from 12 pm to 1 pm. Drivers who fueled up with E15 during the promotion won prizes such as $20 in cash, tickets to Minnesota United, tickets to the St Paul Saints, gift cards to Applebee’s and KS95 merchandise.
MN Bio-Fuels staff and KS95’s personality, Greg “Hutch” Hutchinson were at the station during the promotion to educate drivers on the benefits of fueling up with E15.
“More and more Minnesotans are choosing E15. In the first six months of this year, 47.16 million gallons of E15 was sold in Minnesota, 17 percent higher than the volume sold over the same period in 2021,” said Brian Kletscher, president of MN Bio-Fuels.
Today’s event was the 10th time MN Bio-Fuels and KS95 FM have teamed up this year at a gas station in the Twin Cities metro to promote E15.
Aug 16, 2022
President Joe Biden on Aug. 16 signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law, calling the legislation the “biggest step forward in climate—ever” and stressing it will allow the U.S. to boldly take addition steps towards meeting its climate goals.
The expansive legislative package addresses a wide range of issues, including inflation reduction, domestic energy production and manufacturing, carbon emissions reductions, Medicare and health care costs, and tax loopholes.
Of interest to the biofuel and bioenergy industries, the newly signed law establishes new tax credits for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), clean transportation fuels and clean hydrogen. It also extends several existing tax credits that benefit transportation biofuels, such as renewable diesel and biodiesel, and includes funding for biofuel infrastructure development. Other provisions of the bill support the production of biogas- and biomass-based electricity and offer tax incentives for homeowners to install biomass-fired residential heating appliances. The bill also extends and expands the Section 45Q tax credit for carbon capture and storage (CCS).
The new SAF tax credit starts at $1.25 per gallon for SAF that achieves a 50 percent greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction when compared to a baseline fossil fuel. An additional 1 cent per gallon is available for each percentage point by which the lifecycle GHG emission reduction of the fuel exceeds 50 percent. The tax credit is capped at $1.75 per gallon. The new also establishes a competitive grant program in support of alternative aviation fuels and low-emission aviation technologies. In part, the program would provide grants to eligible entities to carry out projects located in the U.S. that produce, transport, blend or store SAF. Nearly $250 million in funding would be available to support SAF projects under the program.
The newly established Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit is a technology-neutral tax credit that aims to support the production of low-emissions transportation fuel. It will apply to transportation fuel produced and sold in 2025, 2026 and 2027. To qualify, the fuel will have to achieve a GHG reduction of approximately 40 percent when compared to diesel and meet other requirements.
The new law also establishes a Section 45V production tax credit (PTC) for clean hydrogen produced at qualified facilities that begin construction before the end of 2032. The credit will apply to hydrogen produced after the end of 2022. Depending on the specific project, the credit could range from 12 cents per kilogram to $3 per kilogram, according to the bill text.
The Inflation Reduction Act also extends several existing bioenergy and biofuel tax credits. The $1 per gallon blends tax credit for biodiesel and renewable diesel is extended through the end of 2024. It also extends the 50-cent per gallon alternative fuels tax credit, the second-generation biofuel income tax credit, and the alternative fuel vehicle refueling property credit.
In addition, it appropriates $500 million to support the development of biofuel infrastructure, including infrastructure improvements for blending, storing, supplying or distributing biofuels; installing, retrofitting or upgrading fuel dispensers to supply higher blends of biofuels; and for building and retrofitting home heating oil distribution centers to supply biofuels. The new law also includes an estimated $18 billion in support of climate-smart agriculture, which will benefit biofuel producers through the production of lower-carbon feedstocks.
For renewable electricity, the Inflation Reduction At extends the Section 45 production tax credit (PTC), which benefits qualified biogas, open-loop biomass and closed-loop biomass facilities, to qualified facilities that begin construction before Jan. 1, 2025. For home heating, the it extends and modifies of the Section 25 tax credit, which, in part, supports the installation residential biomass-fired stove and boilers. The tax credit for these residential appliances is capped at $2,000.
The Inflation Reduction Act supports CCS projects through an extension and modification of the Section 45Q tax credit. It extends the Section 45Q tax credit to any carbon capture, direct air capture or carbon utilization project that begins construction before Jan. 1, 2033. It also increases the value of the credit for industrial facilities and power plants that capture their carbon emissions to $85 per metric ton of CO2 stored in secure geologic formations, $60 per ton for the beneficial utilization of captured carbon emissions, and $60 per ton for CO2 stored in oil and gas fields. For direct air capture technologies, the credit is increased to $180 per metric ton for projects that store captured CO2 in secure geologic formations, $130 per ton for carbon utilization, and $130 per ton for CO2 stored in oil and gas fields.
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Aug 9, 2022
The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecasts for 2022 and 2023 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Aug. 9. The agency also maintained its forecast for 2022 and 2023 ethanol consumption.
The EIA currently predicts U.S. fuel ethanol production will average 1.02 million barrels per day this year, falling to 1 million barrels per day next year. Production averaged 980,000 barrels per day in 2021.
On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is expected to average 1.01 million barrels per day during the third quarter of this year, expanding to 1.02 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter. Moving into 2023, ethanol production is expected to average 990,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, 1 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 990,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1.02 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
The EIA currently predicts ethanol blending will average 910,000 per day in 2022 and 920,000 barrels per day in 2023. Ethanol blending averaged 910,000 barrels per day last year.
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Aug 4, 2022
The U.S. exported 101.48 million gallons of ethanol and 1.01 million metric tons of distillers grains in June, according to data released by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service on Aug. 4. Exports of both products were up when compared to June 2021.
The 101.48 million gallons of ethanol exported in June was down when compared to the 147.06 million gallons exported in May, which was a four-year high, but up from the 82.09 million gallons exported during the same month of last year.
The U.S. exported ethanol to more than 30 countries in June. Canada was the top destination for U.S. ethanol at 41.2 million gallons, followed by South Korea at 13.64 million gallons and the UK at 12.02 million gallons.
The value of U.S. ethanol exports was at $324.77 million in May, down from $410.39 million the previous month, but up from $187 million in June 2021.
Total U.S. ethanol exports for the first half of 2022 reached 827.39 million gallons at a value of $2.25 billion, compared to 662.62 million gallons exported during the same period of 2021 at a value of $1.27 billion.
The 1.01 million metric tons of distillers grains exported in June was up from both 966,108 metric tons in May and 938,280 metric tons in June 2021.
The U.S. exported distillers grains to approximately three dozen countries in June. Vietnam was the top destination at 197,192 metric tons, followed by Mexico at 158,501 metric tons and Turkey at 109,819 metric tons.
The value of U.S. distillers grains exports was at $311.08 million in June, down slightly from $311.85 million the previous month but up from $248.47 million in June of last year.
Total U.S. distillers grains exports for the first six months of the year reached 5.67 million metric tons at a value of $1.67 billion, compared to 5.4 million metric tons exported during the same period of last year at a value of $1.42 billion.
Additional data is available on the USDA FAS website.
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Aug 2, 2022
On Friday, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) posted the Renewable Fuels Association’s (RFA) and Growth Energy’s joint multimedia evaluation of E15 blends Tier 1 report. The Tier 1 report is a comprehensive review of E15, a 15 percent ethanol blended fuel, and the first step in a three-tiered evaluation process of the fuel blend.
“RFA is pleased to see that CARB has accepted and posted the comprehensive Tier I report on E15’s environmental and public health impacts,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “This is an important milestone in the process to approve the use of E15 in California, meaning the state’s consumers are one step closer to finally accessing lower-cost, lower-carbon liquid fuels. Similar to the recent University of California emissions testing results, the Tier I report demonstrates that E15 reduces emissions and is better for the environment than today’s regular gasoline.”
“CARB’s posting of the Tier 1 report, which includes a wealth of data on the environmental benefits of E15, is an encouraging sign of progress,” said Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor. “As California works to address climate change and air quality challenges and meet its ambitious carbon reduction goals, E15 can help to reduce emissions from cars on the road today and lower prices at the pump. CARB’s posting of the Tier 1 report, paired with its recently released study from University of California-Riverside on the benefits of shifting from E10 to E15, continues the progress toward E15 approval in the state.”
The final Tier 1 report is available here. The University of California-Riverside's study on E15 is available here.
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Jul 27, 2022
RALEIGH, North Carolina — Novozymes introduces Innova® Apex and Innova® Turbo to the Innova platform. Innova Apex and Turbo are tailored to work in specific fermentation times, enabling ethanol producers to maximize their fermentation process to achieve their desired production targets and business goals.
The Innova brand of yeasts can reduce chemical costs by lowering demand for expensive urea by up 90% and eliminating the need for other fermentation aids like nutritional supplements. Innova Apex delivers up to 2% more ethanol and exceptional robustness to stressors while Innova Turbo’s novel metabolism and stress management in high throughput plants increases ethanol yield by 1.5-2%. Apex and Turbo join Innova® Quantum — together these 3 advanced yeasts provide the industry with the highest level of performance and application to production demands and needs.
Built with Innova yeast strain technology, Innova Apex and Innova Turbo tolerate the toughest fermentation stressors, enabling plants to avoid slowdowns and de-risk production. These new yeast strains are built specifically for today’s industrial fermentation conditions helping ethanol producers make the most of their fermentations, consistently liberating the highest levels of ethanol production.
“Since the launch of our Innova platform in 2018, Innova yeasts have become the most sought-after fermentation solution in the industry,” says Rene Garza, Novozymes Region President, NA and VP, Agriculture & Industrial Biosolutions. “Innova Apex and Innova Turbo are the next generation strain technologies to help our ethanol customers continually improve their operations. Innova Apex and Innova Turbo individually provide the most unique and trusted performance, redefining fermentation opportunities in their operational segments. Each unleashes fermentation performance unlike any yeast in the market."
Innova Apex is specifically designed for corn ethanol fermentations that run between 52 and 65 hours, while Innova Turbo is designed for fermentations times of 52 hours or less. Apex and Turbo join Innova Quantum launched in 2021; Quantum is designed for fermentation 65 hours or longer.
Innova® Apex: Power through production challenges
Innova Apex allows ethanol production facilities to push their plants to up to 36% dry solids and reduce glycerol by up to 38%. The advanced yeast solution consistently delivers reliability and production KPIs under the most difficult process conditions, including temperature spikes up to 101º F. This advanced yeast solution can power through common bacterial infections by tolerating up to 0.6% lactic acid and 0.4% acetic acid.
Compared to the previous Innova Force yeast solution, Innova Apex improves ethanol yield by 2% for even more profitability and improved DDGS quality. Additional profits can be gained by using Innova yeast solutions to significantly reduce input costs such as urea and eliminating fermentation aids, while also reducing organizational stress and process complexity. Additional yield and fewer failed fermentations have delivered, on average, up to $1.8 million in profits.
As a drop-in solution, Innova Apex is an easy-to-use solution for ethanol production facilities. The advanced yeast solution has been proven through rigorous laboratory and full-scale plant trials.
Innova Turbo: Higher throughput, higher yield
Innova Turbo offers 1-3% throughput yield gains, 1.5%-2% more ethanol yield in fast fermentations, consistently ferments high solids of more than 35% and is robust to high ethanol concentrations of more than 16%. Ethanol production plants using Innova Turbo during fermentation reduced acetaldehyde off-gas.
This advanced yeast solution powers through tough operating conditions and compounding stressors such as high fermentation temperature excursions plus organic acids from bacterial infections with thermotolerance up to 101o F and up to 0.8% lactic acid and 0.4% acetic acid.
Fast kinetics in Innova Turbo helps ensure ethanol production plants hit production targets while reducing glycerol up to 20% without risk to a facility’s fermentation reliability and consistency. Starting and finishing the fermentation process strong, Innova Turbo drop glucose averages 0.05% in 48-hour fermentations for clean, effective, on-time ethanol production, so operations can avoid work-arounds such as needing more time to finish.
Using Innova Turbo to break bottlenecks that hurt productivity and increased ethanol yield can result in additional profitability. Lower glycerol can aid in dried distiller’s grains (DDGS) handling.
The Innova® Portfolio: Not a one-size-fits-all approach
Innova Apex and Turbo join Innova® Quantum, released in October 2021, which is an advanced yeast solution specifically developed for fermentation times of more than 65 hours and delivers 2-3% more ethanol yield with exceptional robustness. Each product in the Novozymes Innova fermentation solution portfolio has ideal fermentation kinetics specific to each plant’s operational needs, achieved with yeast designed to work in those targeted operating conditions, and not a one-size-fits-all approach. Only Innova yeast solutions allow ethanol producers to significantly reduce urea or eliminate inputs, such as yeast fermentation aids, which can cost plants up to $300,000 annually, all while increasing dry solids for improved production efficiency and powering through tough operational conditions to smooth plant consistency.
All Innova advanced yeast solutions have elite breeding for robustness and advanced enzyme expression, each developed with MicroBioGen breeding technology and Novozymes biological engineering and world-leading enzyme expertise. The Innova yeast portfolio provides the ethanol industry’s most trusted fermentation performance and value.
For more information on Novozymes or Innova yeast solutions, visit biosolutions.novozymes.com.
Read the original press release here.
Jul 27, 2022
Sens. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, on July 26 introduced the Next Generation Fuels Act, which aims to leverage higher-octane fuels to improve engine efficiency and performance.
The bill, S. 4621, was referred to the Senate Committee on Finance. To date, Sens. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., and Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., have signed on to cosponsor the legislation. Similar legislation was introduced in both 2020 and 2021 by Rep. Cindy Axne, D-Iowa. Axne’s bill currently has 26 cosponsors.
The legislation aims to establish high-octane (95 and 98 RON) certification test fuels containing 20-30 percent ethanol, while requiring automobile manufacturers to design and warrant their vehicles for the use of these fuels beginning with model year 2026. Today, the typical octane rating is 91 RON. It also requires sources of the added octane value to reduce carbon emissions by at least 40 percent compared to baseline gasoline, measured using the U.S. Department of Energy’s GREET model.
Other provisions included in the bill address regulatory impediments that have slowed the commercialization of high-octane, low-carbon fuels and the vehicles that consume them. For example, the bill includes provisions that would set a limit on aromatics in gasoline another, ensure that all ethanol blends receive the same Reid vapor pressure (RVP) treatment as E10, and require future vehicles and future retail stations are compatible with higher blends of ethanol.
The Renewable Fuels Association is welcoming introduction of the bill. “We sincerely thank Sen. Grassley, along with Sens. Klobuchar, Ernst, and Duckworth, for introducing the Next Generation Fuels Act in the Senate,” said Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the RFA. “These lawmakers recognize that Americans will continue to rely on liquid fuels and internal combustion engines for decades to come, and their legislation would ensure consumers have access to more efficient, lower-carbon, lower-cost fuels for their vehicles. This summer’s geopolitical instability, record-high gas prices, and more frequent climate disasters all underscore the need for real and immediate energy solutions for American families. This bill provides those sensible solutions, and we look forward to working with clean fuel supporters in both chambers of Congress to turn this bold vision into a reality.”
Growth Energy is also applauding the introduction of the Next Generation Fuels Act. “The Next Generation Fuels Act represents a clear roadmap for delivering cleaner, more affordable options at the pump for American drivers,” said Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy. “With a natural octane of 113, ethanol is the only high-performance, renewable fuel ready to help decarbonize cars on the road today – and with the added benefit of offering consumers significant savings at the pump. We applaud Senators Grassley, Klobuchar, Ernst, and Duckworth for working to promote the use of high-octane, lower-carbon biofuel blends that hold enormous potential for rural America’s role in clean energy production and lowering prices at the pump. We urge swift passage of this legislation as it works to offer both climate solutions and gas price relief to the American people.”
A full-text copy of the bill is available on the Congress.gov website.
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Jul 26, 2022
OMAHA, Neb., Navigator CO2 ("Navigator") announced today the relocation of its corporate headquarters to Omaha, Nebraska and the key addition of Tyler Durhamas as Chief Development Officer and Senior Vice President.
"I'm proud to call Omaha home and eager to continue building our team in the Midwest, which is the heart of our project footprint," said Matt Vining, CEO of Navigator. "Tyler will be an invaluable asset to accelerating our vision for becoming a preeminent carbon handling platform, having technical expertise across multiple aspects of CCUS and success in growth initiatives and corporate investment strategy. His focus will be on accelerating the continued growth of our complementary service offerings, while leading the evaluation of strategic transactions and the many corporate investments currently in front of us. His leadership will increase our speed to market and position us as a key player in the dynamic carbon economy."
Tyler Durham – Chief Development Officer and Senior Vice President
Durham brings over 16 years of experience in the energy sector and corporate venture capital, which included global assignments in Canada, the United States, and the Middle East. He most recently served as Director in Schlumberger New Energy's CCS division, where he led partnership agreements, investment decisions, and integration. Durham holds a Bachelor's in Chemical Engineering from Dalhousie University and an MBA with Honors from the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business.
As Navigator continues the buildout of its team and new Nebraska headquarters, the development of its signature project, Heartland Greenway, continues to make notable advancements in parallel. The proposed system will capture CO2 from more than 30 receipt points, transport it via pipeline, and safely store it underground. The Heartland Greenway will provide biofuel producers and other industrial customers in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota with a long-term and cost-effective means to reduce their carbon footprint. Full-scale operations are expected to commence in early 2025.
About Navigator CO2: Navigator CO2 is a company developed and managed by the Navigator Energy Services management team with over 200 years of collective industry experience. The company specializes in CCUS, and the management team has safely constructed and operated over 1,300 miles of new infrastructure since 2012. The company is committed to building and operating its projects to meet and exceed safety requirements while minimizing the collective impact on the environment, landowners, and the public during construction and ongoing operations. Navigator CO2 is headquartered in Omaha, NE at 13333 California St., Suite 202. For more information, visit: navigatorco2.com or heartlandgreenway.com, or visit us on Facebook and Twitter.
Read the original press release here.
Jul 20, 2022
U.S. fuel ethanol production increased by nearly 3 percent the week ending July 15, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on July 20. Stocks of fuel ethanol were down slightly.
Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.034 million barrels per day the week ending July 15, up 29,000 barrels per day when compared to the 1.005 million barrels per day of production reported for the previous week. When compared to the same week of last year, production for the week ending July 15 was up 6,000 barrels per day.
Weekly ending stocks of fuel ethanol fell to 23.553 million barrels the week ending July 15, down 53,000 barrels when compared to the 23.606 million barrels of stocks reported for the previous week. When compared to the same week of last year, stocks for the week ending July 15 were up 1.035 million barrels.
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Jul 18, 2022
By Geoff Cooper
It’s been said that “the cure for high prices is … high prices.” In other words, when prices for a product rise to an unbearable level, consumers reduce consumption or stop buying the product altogether. In turn, supplies of the product increase and prices eventually fall.
But in the case of gas prices—which set a new record of $5 per gallon in June—there is a better cure available that won’t force Americans to cancel their daily commutes or abandon summer road trips. At gas stations across the country, the cure for high prices isn’t more high prices—it’s ethanol. Refiners and blenders can lower gas prices for consumers simply by adding more ethanol, which has been $1–$1.50 per gallon cheaper than gasoline for much of the summer.
However, refiners don’t make ethanol and they don’t like the idea of blending more, even though market forces suggest they should. Fortunately, the Biden administration has taken action this summer to compel refiners to increase the availability and use of ethanol—the antidote to record high pump prices.
Back in June, the Environmental Protection Agency took regulatory action to bring order and certainty to the Renewable Fuel Standard, giving our industry a solid foundation to grow production, boost energy security and expand the use of low-carbon renewable fuels. Specifically, EPA set the 2022 blending requirement for conventional renewable fuel at 15.25 billion gallons—the highest ever—and put an end to the abuse of the refinery exemption program.
The Renewable Fuel Standard reduces the price of gasoline in two ways. First, the RFS drives greater usage of ethanol, which is less expensive than petroleum-based gasoline (recently selling at a discount of roughly $1.50 per gallon at the wholesale level). Additionally, RFS compliance credits, known as renewable identification numbers, or RINs, are attached to each gallon of ethanol sold domestically. These are provided free of charge and help offset the blender’s cost of gasoline.
Second, the use of ethanol extends the overall fuel supply and reduces the consumption of petroleum-based gasoline, thereby lowering the demand for crude oil and refined products. In a 2019 study, Dr. Philip Verleger determined that by expanding fuel supplies, the RFS reduced the price of crude oil by $6 per barrel on average from 2015 to 2018. In turn, gasoline prices were reduced by an average of 22 cents per gallon, the equivalent of $250 annually for a typical household.
The EPA and the Biden administration are restoring integrity and stability to the RFS program after several years of mismanagement and abuse by the previous administration. The combination of a strong RVO for 2022, restoration of illegally waived volume from 2016, and a new direction for the small refinery exemption program puts the RFS program on solid footing for the future. We thank Administrator Regan and President Biden for honoring their commitments to implement the RFS in a way that is fair, transparent and focused on growth—giving us a great steppingstone for moving forward in the future.
In addition, President Biden, Regan and USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack worked to ensure lower-cost E15 is available all summer for consumers. Meanwhile, a group of Midwest state governors are also working to make year-round E15 permanent in their states. Summertime E15 will help lower the cost for consumers as they travel this summer and all year long.
Clearly, the cure for high prices at the pump isn’t more high prices. The cure is opening the market to higher volumes of ethanol and spurring competition. RFA will continue to lead and advocate for a larger role for ethanol in the United States fuel supply. We could not be more hopeful for the opportunities in the future as we continue moving forward, and the action we’re seeing from the White House this summer gives us cause for more optimism.
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Jul 14, 2022
The U.S. ethanol industry delivered a very strong second quarter, according to the latest quarterly report issued by CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange on July 14. Ethanol profits and production remain robust despite record gas prices, according to the report.
The ethanol industry experienced few visible signs of demand destruction during the second quarter despite a spike in retail gasoline prices, rising inflation, aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate actions, a significant showdown in the U.S. economy and deteriorating consumer sentiment, according to CoBank.
The report indicates that ethanol production during the second quarter was down slightly when comparted to the first quarter, averaging 15.5 billion gallons on an annualized basis. According to CoBank, second quarter operating margins were at 33 cents per gallon, well above the five-year average of 22 cents per gallon. CoBank said the relatively high margins were driven by a 16 percent increase in fuel ethanol prices, which exceed input costs of corn and natural gas.
U.S. ethanol exports reached a four-year high in April, at 185 million gallons, with sales diversified among several key trading partners. Overall, ethanol exports for the first four months of the year were up 67 percent, according to CoBank. U.S. exports of dried distillers grains (DDGS) were also up during the fourth month period, but at a lower rate of 8 percent. The report also notes that consumer gasoline demand remains stable despite prices that have reached $4.88 per gallon, up from $3.10 per gallon a year ago.
A full copy the CoBank Knowledge Exchange’s latest quarterly report can be downloaded from the company’s website.
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Jul 13, 2022
The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecasts for 2022 and 2023 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released July 13. The forecast for 2023 fuel ethanol consumption was also increased.
The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 1.02 million barrels per day in 2022, up from the June STEO forecast of 1 million barrels per day. The agency also increased its forecast for 2023 fuel ethanol production to 1 million barrels per day, up from 990,000 barrels per day forecasted last month. Production averaged 980,000 barrels per day in 2021.
Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.02 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, falling to 1.01 million barrels per day in the second quarter. Production during the third quarter is expected to remain at 1.01 million barrels per day before returning to 1.02 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2023, ethanol production is expected to average 990,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, 1 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 990,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1.02 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Fuel ethanol blending is currently expected to average 910,000 per day in 2022, a forecast maintained from the June STEO, and 920,000 barrels per day in 2023, up from 910,000 barrels per day predicted last month. Fuel ethanol blending was at 910,000 barrels per day in 2021.
According to the EIA, fuel ethanol consumption for the first half of 2022 was up when compared to the same period of last year. The agency said the increase is primarily attributed to more gasoline consumption. Similar levels of gasoline and ethanol consumption are expected for the second half of this year. The EIA currently predicts that fuel ethanol consumption will remain around 2022 levels next year and that the ethanol share of U.S. gasoline consumption will be near 10.3 percent. However, if favorable blend economics for fuel ethanol, driven by lower relative fuel prices, and high RIN prices persist, the fuel ethanol share of gasoline consumption could potentially increase.
The EIA also said consumption of biofuels has risen in the U.S. this year. That growth is expected to continue, according to the agency. Increased demand for transportation fuels, higher 2022 Renewable Fuel Standard blending obligations, and new renewable diesel production capacity coming online all contribute to that expected growth.
The EIA noted that prices for renewable identification numbers (RINs) have increased in 2022, reaching near record-high prices, which has facilitated growing biofuel consumption. When compared to the first half of 2021, ethanol consumption for the first half of 2022 was up 32,000 barrels per day, or 3 percent. During the same period, renewable diesel consumption grew by 32,000 barrels per day, or 46 percent, while the consumption of other biofuels increased by 6,000 barrels per day, or 133 percent. Biodiesel consumption was unchanged, according to the EIA.
The EIA currently predicts that renewable diesel consumption will average 116,000 barrels per day in 2022, up 41,000 barrels per day or 53 percent when compared to last year. Renewable diesel consumption is expected to average 164,000 barrels per day in 2023. The EIA cautioned that that forecast assumes that some of the capacity scheduled to come online in 2022 and 2023 will have delays or be affected by high agricultural feedstock costs.
Because 1 gallon of renewable diesel produces more RIN credits under the RFS than biodiesel and faces no infrastructure or blending constraints, the EIA said it expects new renewable diesel plants to be brought online to secure scarce oil feedstocks, such as soybean oil, outpacing biodiesel refineries and limiting biodiesel production. The agency forecasts biodiesel consumption to increase slightly from 2021 levels this year, but to decrease in 2023 as renewable diesel increasingly satisfies RFS requirements. Biodiesel production for 2022 is expected to fall 8 percent when compared to last year, averaging less than 100,000 barrels per day, the lowest annual average since 2015.
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Jul 12, 2022
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released July 12. The 2022-’23 corn outlook is for increased supplies and higher ending stocks.
The USDA beginning stocks are raised 25 million bushels, to 1.51 billion bushels, based on reduced feed and residual use for 2021-’22 as indicated in the agency’s June 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production for 2022-’23 is forecast 45 million bushels higher, at 14.505 billion bushels, based on greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. Projected yield is unchanged at 177 bushels per acre.
The USDA maintained its June forecast that 5.375 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production in 2022-’23, flat with 2022-’21. Approximately 5.033 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production in 2020-’21. The USDA also maintained its June forecasts for feed and residual use, along with food, seed and industrial use.
With no use changes, ending stocks are up 70 million bushels, to 1.47 billion bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.65 per bushel.
The USDA’s forecast for foreign corn production is down, with reductions for Russia, the European Union and Kenya, partially offset by an increase for Paraguay. Russia corn production is lowered reflecting a cut in area. EU corn production is reduced with a forecast decline for Italy. For 2021-’22, corn production is raised for Paraguay with increases to both area and yield.
Major global trade changes for 2022-’23 include larger corn exports for Paraguay with a reduction for Russia. Corn imports are raised for Zimbabwe. Foreign corn ending stocks are up marginally relative to last month. Global corn stocks, at 313 million tons, are up 2.5 million tons relative to last month.
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