Duluth News Tribune

January 21, 2017

By Don Davis and Maureen McMullen

ST. PAUL — Minnesota's plant-based fuel industries of ethanol and biodiesel are success stories, but their future depends on the new Trump administration.

"We are a little nervous," Assistant Commissioner Andrea Vaubel of the Minnesota Department of Agriculture said, not knowing the future U.S. agriculture secretary's biofuels attitude.

Vaubel has reason to be nervous. Leading up to Trump's Friday inauguration, based on reporting from national media with access to his inner circle.

Minnesota officials say they know little about former Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue, whom Trump nominated as U.S. secretary of agriculture, about his stance on ethanol.

Two other Cabinet nominees who would be involved in biofuel decisions have anti-biofuel histories.

The questions come at a time when the Minnesota biofuels industry is mature and doing well.

Tim Rudnicki, executive director of the Minnesota Biofuels Association, described biofuel as "apolitical."

"It’s about people, the environment and the economy and really about wins for everybody," he said.

The biofuel industry pumps $6 billion into the state economy annually.

The state was the first to require that all gasoline include 10 percent corn-based ethanol, helping spur the construction of 20 ethanol plants, providing corn farmers a lucrative new market. More than a billion gallons of ethanol come out of the plants each year.

Minnesota has the country's most pumps for E85, a blend of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline that can be used in "flex fuel" capable vehicles.

Minnesota legislators voted to require 2 percent biodiesel — made from soybeans, animal fat, used cooking oil and other oil products — in most diesel sold in Minnesota in 2002. That rose to 5 percent four years later and 10 percent in 2012.

Three state commissioners must decide later this year if 20 percent biodiesel will be required May 1, 2018.

Chairman Paul Anderson, R-Starbuck, of the state House Agriculture Policy Committee said that early problems with biodiesel gelling and causing other problems, mostly in cold weather, largely have disappeared.

"We did go through some growing pains," Anderson said, adding that "I have not heard many complaints the last few years."

As to ethanol, Anderson said, one of the major factors people should know is "has helped clean up the air. We sometimes forget that."

A 2015 study from the University of Illinois in Chicago determined the use of E15, a gasoline mixture with 15 percent ethanol, would eliminate 385,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide each year. This, according to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency calculations, would have the same result of eliminating more than 75,000 passenger vehicles from Minnesota's roads.

Most biofuel programs operate at the mercy of the federal government
In many cases, federal agencies must approve higher biofuel use. In other situations, the state uses federal money to help support biofuels.

When Trump campaigned in Iowa, the country's top ethanol producer, he usually delivered the same line: "I love ethanol."

At one Iowa stop, he added: "You’re going to get a really fair shake from me."

However, he provided few details and his inner circle raises questions about what his intentions are with ethanol.

"Billionaire Carl Icahn, a special adviser to Donald Trump and a skeptic of the U.S. ethanol mandate, said there are others on the president-elect’s team who have even deeper criticisms of the program," Bloomberg News reported in late December.

Many of Trump's top advisors, including Icahn, are involved in petroleum production, and may see biofuels as competition.

Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt is Trump's pick to head the Environmental Protection Agency, key to deciding the percentage of biofuel that goes into fuel. He is described as an ethanol opponent, but some Midwesterners have been assured Trump told him to back ethanol.

A December survey of 3,000 Midwestern Trump voters found that 88 percent believe ethanol is important to create American jobs, and 85 percent believe it is important for U.S. energy security.

Read the original story: Successful Minnesota Biofuels Industry Awaits Trump

Ethanol Producer Magazine

January 19, 2017

By Erin Voegele

The U.S. ethanol industry has broken production records for three consecutive weeks. Production reached at new record the week ending Jan. 13, with production averaging 1.054 barrels per day, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The previous record, set the week ending Jan. 6, was at 1.049 million barrels per day. That record replaced the one set the week ending Dec. 30, when production reached 1.043 million barrels per day. 

The U.S. ethanol repeatedly broke records for ethanol production last year. Prior to Dec. 30, the record was set the week ending Dec. 9, when production averaged 1.04 million barrels per day.

The U.S. ethanol industry has surpassed the 1 million barrel per day mark only 26 times, all since November 2015. Prior to November 2015, the ethanol production record sat at 994,000 barrels per day, which was set the week of June 19, 2015.

Read the original story: US Ethanol Production Breaks Record for Third Consecutive Week

Feedstuffs

January 16, 2017

Exports of U.S. ethanol are off to a strong start for the first quarter of the 2016-17 marketing year and are at their highest levels during that time frame over the past five years, according to data recently released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS).

Exports totaled 353.2 million gal. for the months of September, October and November 2016, the first quarter of the 2016-17 marketing year.

Brazil, Canada and China were the top three customers for U.S. ethanol, respectively. India, Peru, South Korea and Mexico were the next largest markets for U.S. ethanol exports, totaling 62.4 million gal. over the same time period. According to the U.S. Grains Council (USGC), these top seven markets accounted for 88% of U.S. ethanol exports in the first quarter. As such, USGC said it, as well as industry partners, are currently or will be working these countries to further develop demand for U.S. ethanol.

Exports of U.S. ethanol to Brazil increased substantially to 111.6 million gal. in the first three months of the current marketing year, representing nearly a third of total U.S. ethanol exports -- the second highest volume of U.S. ethanol exports to that country over the last decade.

“Enforceable government ethanol mandates are driving the increases in Brazilian imports of U.S. ethanol, as Brazilian sugarcane has been diverted to sugar production to capture a price premium,” USGC noted. “To enforce its mandates, Brazil ramped up imports of price-competitive U.S. ethanol, highlighting the important role of trade in meeting ethanol mandates globally.”

U.S. ethanol exports to Canada totaled 87.8 million gal. during the first quarter of the 2016-17 marketing year. USGC said this is the highest level of U.S. ethanol imports by Canada during this time frame, with a 26% increase in imports over the first quarter of marketing year 2015-16.

USGC said it will continue working to increase ethanol demand. In fact, the council and its partners in global ethanol market development -- Growth Energy, the Renewable Fuels Assn. and USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service -- recently conducted technical workshops in Asia and Latin America describing the positive environmental and public health benefits of increased ethanol use. USGC also uses trade missions to target countries, trade teams bringing stakeholders to the U.S. and industry working groups to support the development of the global ethanol market.

Read the original story: U.S. Ethanol Exports up 85% During First Quarter

Seattle Pi

January 13, 2017

By Daniel DeMay

Sea-Tac Airport could become one of the first major U.S. airports to start using biofuel for every flight that leaves its tarmac.

That’s the lofty goal that drove a study released yesterday on how to build the infrastructure needed to get aviation biofuel into Sea-Tac’s fuel supply.

“Here in Seattle, we’re in such a unique position to lead in this industry,” said John Creighton, president of the Seattle Port Commission. “We live in a community that inspires us to think bigger about sustainability and in the Northwest, we understand that climate change is real.”

The study is the work of a partnership between the Port of Seattle, Alaska Airlines and Boeing, and focused on finding a site where biofuel could be mixed with jet fuel (planes can only run up to a 50-50 mix of aviation biofuel and jet fuel) and then fed into the existing fuel supply for the airport.

Widespread use of biofuel could significantly reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, sulphur, soot and other particulates from commercial aircraft -- a footprint of 50 to 80 percent less than regular jet fuel, according to the study.

David Williams, with engineering firm WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff, led the study, looking first at 29 different sites with access to the Olympic Pipeline -- the primary source of jet fuel from northern refineries. Williams narrowed it down to three and found that the best short-term solution would be to incorporate the biofuel infrastructure at the existing Sea-Tac fuel farm.

Biofuel could be trucked in, mixed and added to the Olympic Pipeline supply at that site for the lowest cost -- estimated at $13.95 million.

But to get to a large-scale operation -- the study’s goal is 50 million gallons of biofuel per year initially, ramping up to 100 million gallons after 2025 --  found that creating the infrastructure at one of the three northern refineries would the best long-term solution, albeit a more costly one at something around $104 million.

These estimates are far from concrete, however, as since there are currently no commercial producers of aviation biofuel in the region, transport costs are almost a total unknown, Williams said.

Another study focused on financing this kind of infrastructure is due out sometime this spring, Creighton said.

The lack of a commercial biofuel producer also makes it hard to come up with a timeline for how soon such a project could come to fruition at Sea-Tac.

Alaska Airlines has set a goal of bringing commercial aviation biofuel to one of its airports by 2020, with a preference for Sea-Tac, said Carol Sim, director of environmental affairs for Alaska.

In 2011, the Seattle-based airline flew 75 flights on a blend of used cooking oil biofuel, and has since flown two more flights on biofuel variants -- one on a corn alcohol-based fuel and one on a “woody biomass” fuel, Sim said.

Alaska is in talks with several fuel producers now, with the hopes of striking a deal that will provide a consistent supply of aviation biofuel, Sim said.

“If it’s before 2020, that would be great,” she said. But more likely, it will take longer to get the project airborne at full-scale.

The Port will also take aim at integrating the biofuel infrastructure goals into the new Sustainable Airport Master plan, said Stephanie Meyn, climate protection program manager at the Port of Seattle.

Sea-Tac won’t be the first airport to use biofuel on a regular basis, as Los Angeles’ LAX already sends some amount of biofuel up in most flights, Meyn noted. In May, United Airlines began flying routes to San Francisco using a blended fuel with 30 percent biofuel, with the goal of eventually flying all its routes on biofuel blends.

Read the original story: Study Looks at Biofuel for Flights Out of Sea-Tac

Ethanol Producer Magazine

January 13, 2017

By Erin Voegele

The U.S. Energy Information Administration recently released the January edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, predicting ethanol production will average approximately 1 million barrels per day in 2017, increasing slightly to 1.02 million gallons per day in 2018. In 2016, production averaged 1 million barrels per day. In its December STEO, the EIA predicted ethanol production would average only 990,000 barrels per day in 2016, increasing to 1 million barrels per day in 2017. 

On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is expected to average 1 million barrels per day during the first and second quarters of 2017, increasing to 1.02 million barrels per day during the third quarter, and falling to 1 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. In 2018, ethanol production is expected to be at 1.03 million barrels per day during the first quarter, falling to 1.02 million barrels per day during the second and third quarters, and falling to 990,000 barrels per day during the fourth quarter. 

Ethanol consumption averaged approximately 940,000 barrels per day last year, and is expected to be maintained at that level in 2017. In 2018, ethanol consumption is expected to increase to 950,000 barrels per day. According to the EIA, this level of consumption results in the ethanol share of the total gasoline pool averaging approximately 10 percent in both 2017 and 2018. Only marginal increases in higher-level ethanol blends are assumed to occur during the STEO forecast period.

Biodiesel production averaged 99,000 barrels per day in 2016 and is expected to increase to an average of 104,000 barrels per day this year and 111,000 barrels per day next year. Net imports of biomass-based diesel are expected to increase from 47,000 barrels per day in 2016 to 51,000 barrels per day in 2017 and 57,000 barrels per day in 2018.

Within the STEO, the EIA predicts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices will increase from an average of $2.25 per gallon in December to $2.31 per gallon during the first quarter of 2017. Overall, gasoline prices are forecast to average $2.38 per gallon this year, increasing to $2.41 per gallon in 2018.

The EIA’s most recently weekly ethanol production data shows a new record was set the week ending Jan. 6, with production reaching an average of 1.049 million barrels per day. The most recent monthly import data shows the U.S. imported only 31,000 barrels of ethanol in September, all from Brazil. In October, the U.S. exported nearly 3.14 million barrels of ethanol, with top export destinations of Brazil, Canada and India.

Read the original story: EIA: Ethanol Production Expected to Increase Slightly in 2018

Energy AgWired

January 16, 2017

By Cindy Zimmerman

A new report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) finds that food prices declined for the fifth year in a row in 2016, down 1.5 percent from 2015. That included a steady decline in cereal prices- which includes maize or corn – which fell 9.6 percent from 2015 and were down 39 percent from their 2011 peak.

At the same time last year, the U.S. ethanol industry set records for both production and exports, and the final 2016 corn harvest is estimated at 15.1 billion bushels, 11% higher than 2015.

“The FAO news clearly demonstrates that increased ethanol and corn production has not driven up food prices,” said Renewable Fuels Association president and CEO Bob Dinneen, who notes that U.S. ethanol production will use just 2.95% of global grain supplies, the lowest in six years. “As yet another analysis has found, it’s time to put an end to the demonstrably false ‘food vs fuel’ myth that our opponents inexplicably continue to pass off as fact. There is more than enough corn to both feed and fuel the world.”

Dinneen said the FAO report backs up findings of a recent analysis commissioned by the RFA, which found that retail food prices were “not impacted in any demonstrable way by expansion of U.S. grain ethanol production under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) over the past decade.”

Read the original story: New UN Report Shows Food vs Fuel Fallacy

Biomass Magazine

January 10, 2017

By Erin Voegele

On Jan. 9, Gevo Inc. published an update describing fourth quarter operations at its Luverne, Minnesota, biorefinery. The U.S. EPA also recently released a notice approving a fuel pathway for the plant regarding the production of butanol from corn and sorghum.

In its update, Gevo indicated the Luverne plant produced approximately 190,000 gallons of isobutanol during the final three months of 2016, achieving the highest quarterly production level in the company’s history. Based on results measured across the final six weeks of the quarter, Gevo said it demonstrated an isobutanol production capacity of approximately 1.5 million gallons per year. For the full year 2016, isobutanol production reached approximately 440,000 gallons.

According to Gevo, it also produced a record number of batches during the quarter since switching the plant to the side-by-side model of production, achieving its targeted back-to-back five-day turnaround batch times over much of the three-month period. In addition to butanol, 2.8 million gallons of ethanol was produced during the fourth quarter.

Gevo also noted it surpassed production cost targets for butanol and demonstrated variable costs of production of less than the targeted $3:00-3:50 per gallon.

In its statement, Gevo announced the Luverne plant was taken offline on Dec. 21 to perform unplanned necessary repairs and maintenance on certain components of the plant’s regenerative thermal oxidizer (RTO). As of Jan. 9, the plant remained offline, as the company said it decided to make further upgrades to the RTO, which was installed approximately 10 years ago. The facility is expected to be back online within the next two weeks.

Also in early January, the EPA posted a notice to its website announcing the agency has approved a fuel pathway filed by Gevo for the production of butanol from corn starch and grain sorghum. The pathway approval applies to both D5 advanced biofuel and D6 renewable fuel renewable identification numbers (RINs).

Within the approval, the EPA states that Gevo’s butanol produced from corn starch feedstocks appears to already qualify under an existing pathway for the production of D6 RINs, assuming the company satisfies the pathway specifications and other requirements specified in the Clean Air Act and regulations. The EPA also said it has determined that butanol produced by the Luverne facility from grain sorghum feedstock can also qualify for D-code 6 RINs, and butanol produced by the Luverne facility from corn starch and grain sorghum feedstock can qualify for D-code 5 RINs if the fuel meets the conditions and certain associated regulatory provisions.

Documents published by the EPA notes corn starch butanol produced at the Luverne plant achieves a 50.3 percent lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction when compared to baseline gasoline, while grain sorghum butanol produced at the plant achieves a 54.6 percent lifecycle GHG reduction when compared to baseline gasoline.

A full copy of the pathway approval can be downloaded from the EPA’s website.

Read the original story: Gevo Releases Operational Update, Achieves EPA Pathway Approval

United States Department of Agriculture

January 12, 2017

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack today announced the release of a report studying the lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of corn ethanol. The report, A Life-Cycle Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Corn-Based Ethanol, finds that GHG emissions associated with corn-based ethanol in the United States are about 43 percent lower than gasoline when measured on an energy equivalent basis. Unlike other studies of GHG benefits, which relied on forecasts of future ethanol production systems and expected impacts on the farm sector, this study reviewed how the industry and farm sectors performed over the past decade to assess the current GHG profile of corn-based ethanol.

"This report provides evidence that corn ethanol can be a GHG-friendly alternative to fossil fuels, while boosting farm economies" said Vilsack.

This report found greater lifecycle GHG benefits from corn ethanol than a number of earlier studies, driven by a variety of improvements in ethanol production, from the corn field to the ethanol refinery. Farmers are producing corn more efficiently and using conservation practices that reduce GHG emissions, including reduced tillage, cover crops and improved nitrogen management. Corn yields are also improving—between 2005 and 2015, U.S. corn yields increased by more than 10 percent.

Between 2005 and 2015, ethanol production in the U.S. also increased significantly—from 3.9 to 14.8 billion gallons per year. At the same time, advances in ethanol production technologies, such as the use of combined heat and power, using landfill gas for energy, and co-producing biodiesel helped reduce GHG emissions at ethanol refinery plants.

By 2022, given current trends, the GHG profile of corn-based ethanol is expected to be almost 50 percent lower than gasoline primarily due to improvements in corn yields, process fuel switching, and transportation efficiency.

The report also examines a range of factors that could enhance the GHG benefits of corn ethanol production and provides estimates of how those factors change ethanol's lifecycle GHG emissions. For example, the report examined the benefits of improving the efficiency of ethanol refinery plants and adoption of additional conservation practices on corn-producing farms. In a scenario where these improvements and practices are universally adopted, the GHG benefits of corn ethanol are even more pronounced over gasoline, about a 76 percent reduction.

There are several reasons this report found greater lifecycle GHG benefits from corn ethanol than a number of earlier studies. Previous estimates anticipated that growing corn to produce ethanol would result in "indirect land use change"—in other words, land would be converted from grasslands and forests to commodity production as a result of increased demand for corn used in ethanol production. But based on new data and research, there is compelling evidence that while land use changes have occurred, the actual patterns of changes and innovation within the farm sector have resulted in these indirect emissions being much lower than previously projected.

Recent studies of international agricultural land use trends show that that the primary land use change response of the world's farmers from 2004 to 2012 has been to use available land resources more efficiently rather than to expand the amount of land used for farming. Instead of converting new land to production, farmers in Brazil, India and China have increased double cropping, expanded irrigation, reduced unharvested planted area, reduced fallow land and reduced temporary pasture. Much of the international attention on supply of corn for ethanol has focused on Brazil, where earlier estimates anticipated conversion of rainforests to commodity production. But between 2004 and 2012, at the same time U.S. corn ethanol production increased more than 200 percent, deforestation in Brazil's Amazon decreased from 10,200 to 2,400 square miles per year.

The report also demonstrates the added GHG benefits of on-farm conservation practices like reduced tillage, nitrogen stewardship, and cover crops—the same practices outlined in USDA's Building Blocks for Climate Smart Agriculture and Forestry strategy, which aims to reduce GHG emissions by over 120 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year by 2025.

Continuing to support adoption of these practices on farms will further reduce GHG emissions associated with agriculture—as well as benefiting the positive trends in lifecycle GHG balance of corn-based ethanol.

For a summary of the report findings see the USDA Factsheet: Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Corn-Based Ethanol. 

Read the full USDA study here

Read the original release: USDA Releases New Report on Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Balance of Ethanol

Ethanol Producer Magazine

January 11, 2017

By Erin Voegele

The U.S. ethanol industry opened 2017 with a new weekly production record. Production reached an average of 1.049 million barrels per day the week ending Jan. 6, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The new record replaces one set the final week of 2016, when ethanol production reached an average of 1.043 million barrels per day the week ending Dec. 30.  

The U.S. ethanol repeatedly broke records for ethanol production in 2016. Prior to Dec. 30, the record was set the week ending Dec. 9, when production averaged 1.04 million barrels per day.

The U.S. ethanol industry has surpassed the 1 million barrel per day mark only 25 times, all since November 2015. Prior to November 2015, the ethanol production record sat at 994,000 barrels per day, which was set the week of June 19, 2015.

Read the original story: US Ethanol Industry Opens 2017 with Record-Setting Production