May 10, 2024
The USDA expanded its estimate for 2023-’24 corn use in ethanol to 5.45 billion bushels in its latest World Agriculture and Supply and Demand Estimates report, released May 10. The agency currently expects the volume of corn that goes to ethanol production to remain at that level for 2024-’25.
The overall 2024-’25 corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.9 billion bushels, down 3% from last year’s record as s decline in area is partially offset by an increase in yield.
The yield projection of 181 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2023 time period.
With higher beginning stocks, total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017-’18, according to the USDA.
Total U.S. corn use for 2024-’25 is forecast to rise just under 1% relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports. Food, seed and industrial use is forecast at 6.9 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is projected higher on larger supplies and lower expected prices.
The USDA increased its estimate for 2023’24 corn use in ethanol to 5.45 billion bushels, up from the April forecast of 5.4 billion bushels. Corn use for fuel ethanol was at 5.176 billion bushels for 2022-’23. The USDA currently expects corn use for ethanol to remain at 5.45 billion bushels for 2024-’25.
U.S. corn exports for 2024-’25 are forecast to rise 50 million bushels to 2.2 billion, supported by a combined 5.4-million-ton reduction in exports for Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. is projected to the be world’s largest exporter for the second consecutive year, with an expected increase in global market share.
With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2024-’25 ending stocks are up 80 million bushels from last year and, if realized, would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018-’19. Stocks would represent 14.2% of use, up from 13.7% the prior year and the highest since 2019-20. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, down 25 cents from 2023-’24.
World corn production is forecast to decline from the prior year’s record to 1.220 billion metric tons, with the largest declines for the U.S., Ukraine, Zambia, Argentina, Malawi, Mozambique, and Turkey. Partly offsetting are larger crops projected for Brazil, the EU, China, South Africa, and Mexico. Lower area expectations drive a decline in corn production for Argentina, in contrast to Brazil where production is forecast higher on expanded area. Ukraine corn production is expected to be down on reductions to both area and yield. Corn crop prospects for Russia are down as higher area is more than offset by a decline in yield.
World corn use is expected to rise less than 1% to a record 1.221 billion metric tons, with foreign consumption increasing modestly. World corn imports are forecast to fall just under 1%, driven by declines for several countries, including the EU, Canada, Iraq, and Venezuela. Partly offsetting are increases for Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Egypt, and Iran.
Global corn ending stocks for 2024-‘25 are down 800,000 tons to 312.3 million. Stocks in the major exporting countries of Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. are projected down slightly, reflecting higher stocks in the U.S. mostly offset by declines for Brazil and Ukraine. For China, corn imports are projected unchanged at 23.0 million tons.
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