USDA Raises Forecast for 2023 - '24 Corn Use in Ethanol

  • Monday, 13 November 2023 09:24

Ethanol Producer Magazine

Nov 9, 2023

The USDA raised its forecast for 2023-’24 corn use in ethanol production by 25 million bushels in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Nov. 9. The agency also reduced its forecasted corn price. 

The USDA said the current 2023-’24 corn outlook is for larger production, domestic use, exports and ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 170 million from the October WASDE on a 1.9-bushel increase in yield to 174.9 bushels per acre. 

With larger supplies, feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion. 

The USDA currently expects 5.325 billion bushels of corn to go to ethanol production for 2023-’24, up from last month’s forecast of 5.3 billion bushels. The agency’s estimate for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol was revised down slightly, from 5.177 billion bushels in the October WASDE to 5.176 billion bushels in this month’s report. Approximately 5.32 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production in 2021-’22.

The USDA increased its forecast for 2023-’24 corn exports by 50 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.85 per bushel. 

Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Ukraine, Russia, Burma and Paraguay are partly offset by declines for Mexico, Egypt and Indonesia. Corn production for Ukraine and Russia is raised based on harvest results to date. Mexico production is lowered reflecting a reported decline in summer corn area. 

Major global trade changes include larger corn exports for the U.S., Russia, Turky, Ukraine and Paraguay. Corn imports are raised for Canada, Egypt, Mexico, the EU and Saudia Arabia but lowered for Iran and Bangladesh. Global corn ending stocks, at 315 million tons, are up 2.6 million.

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