USDA Increases Forecast for 2020 - '21 Corn Use in Ethanol

  • Monday, 12 April 2021 09:40

Ethanol Producer Magazine

Apr 9, 2021

The USDA increased its forecast for 2020-’21 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released on April 9. The outlook for feed and residual use was also increased.

The USDA said the forecast for feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion based on corn stocks reported as of March 1, which indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter increased about 6 percent relative to a year ago.

Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels based on the most recent data for the USDA’s Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and the pace of weekly ethanol production during march as indicated by U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

The USDA now predicts 4.975 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production in 2020-’21, up from the agency’s March forecast of 4.95 billion bushels. An estimated 4.857 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production in 2019-’20, down from 5.377 billion in 2018-’19.

The outlook for corn exports is increased by 75 billion bushels based on export inspection data for the month of March that was the largest monthly total on record, surpassing the previously high set in November of 1989.

The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.30 per bushel, as reported prices through February indicate much of the crop was marketed at lower prices.

Globally, corn production is raised for Pakistan, the EU-27+U.K. and Ecuador, with partly offsetting reductions for Argentina and Indonesia.

Major global trade changes include lower forecast corn exports for Ukraine, based on shipment data to date. Corn imports are raised for Bangladesh. Foreign corn ending stocks are essentially unchanged from last month, mostly reflecting increases for South Korea and Pakistan that are offset by a reduction for Saudi Arabia.

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