Will 2015 Ethanol Consumption Exceed EPA's RFS Target?

  • Thursday, 03 September 2015 00:00

Based on the latest data from the EPA on RIN generation, domestic ethanol consumption this year may exceed the 13.4 billion gallons targeted by the EPA in its proposed RFS target for the year.

According to the EPA's latest RIN generation data, domestic ethanol production in the first seven months of the year totaled 8.41 billion gallons. On an annualized basis, this amounts to 14.41 billion gallons for the year, close to the EIA's estimate of 14.5 billion gallons for 2015.

During the same period, data from the RFA indicate ethanol exports totaled 515.24 million gallons while imports were at 13.73 million gallons. Annualizing both exports and imports would give us a total of 883.26 million gallons and 23.48 million gallons respectively.

As such, if the current trend in ethanol production, exports and imports continue, domestic ethanol consumption could total 13.55 million gallons this year, above the EPA's target of 13.4 million gallons.

The higher consumption of ethanol this year is partly due to higher consumption of gasoline as motorists take advantage of low prices at the pump. The EIA estimates gasoline consumption this year to total 139.96 billion gallons compared to 136.74 billion gallons in 2014.

Still, states like Minnesota have also seen a steady increase in the usage of higher ethanol-blends this year.

E85 sales in Minnesota for the first seven months totaled 7.18 million gallons with the volume in July (1.4 million gallons) the highest in 21 months.

E15 sales have surged in tandem with an increase in stations offering E15 in the state.

From January to July this year, E15 sales totaled 1.18 million gallons in comparison to 257,855 gallons sold for the whole of 2014.