In the News

Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jan 10, 2024

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased both its estimate of 2023 fuel ethanol production and forecast for 2024 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Jan. 9. 

The EIA currently estimates that U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.02 million barrels per day in 2023, up from last month’s forecast of 1.01 million barrels per day. The agency also increased its forecast for 2024 fuel ethanol production to 1.02 million barrels per day, up from the forecast of 1 million barrels per day included in its December STEO. In addition, the January STEO includes the EIA’s first short-term forecast for 2025, with the agency predicting fuel ethanol production will continue to average 1.02 million barrels per day next year. 

On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.02 million barrels per day during the first quarter of this year, falling to 1.01 million barrels per day in the second and third quarters, and expanding to 1.03 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2025, fuel ethanol production is currently expected to average 1.02 million barrels per day in the first and second quarters, 1.01 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1.04 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.05 million barrels per day in the final quarter of 2023.

The EIA maintained both its estimate that fuel ethanol blending averaged 930,000 barrels per day in 2023 and that fuel ethanol blending will continue to average 390,000 barrels per day in 2024. The agency currently predicts fuel ethanol blending will expand to 940,000 barrels per day in 2025.

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Renewable Fuels Association

Jan 9, 2024

U.S. ethanol exports dipped 1% to a robust 115.9 million gallons (mg). Canada was our largest destination for the 32nd consecutive month despite a 23% drop in volume. Shipments totaled 50.0 mg (of which 91% was denatured), accounting for 43% of global sales. The U.S. exported 22.6 mg to Colombia (up from essentially zero), which is a record high for that market. India imported 13.5 mg (a -1% decline) while the European Union (down 54%) and United Kingdom (down 39%) each imported 7.7 mg. Virtually all remaining ethanol exports landed in South Korea (3.8 mg, -37%), Mexico (3.4 mg, -33%), Jamaica (3.3 mg, a 6-fold increase), Peru (2.9 mg, -50%), and Singapore (0.8 mg, +47%). Brazil again was notably absent from the market. Ethanol exports through November 2023 totaled 1.27 billion gallons, 3% ahead of the same period in 2022.

The U.S. imported 3.3 mg of undenatured ethanol from Brazil and minimal volumes of denatured ethanol from South Africa. Total ethanol imports through November 2023 totaled 20.6 mg, 73% less than the same period in 2022.

Exports of dried distillers grains (DDGS), the animal feed co-product generated by dry-mill ethanol plants, slowed 7% to 829,911 metric tons (mt)—the lowest volume since April. Shipments landing in our top ten largest customers were mixed but up 3% overall, while a cumulative decline across our smaller markets (-44%) pulled down the November total. Mexico was our largest destination for the 17th consecutive month with exports of 177,724 mt. Still, this was an 8% decrease from October and a 6-month low. Other larger importers included South Korea (108,922 mt, +42%), Vietnam (101,389 mt, -16%), Indonesia (83,558 mt, +26%), Canada (78,341 mt, - 16% decline), Colombia (52,365 mt, quadrupled to an 11-month high) and China (33,189 mt, +9% to a 22-month high). DDGS exports through November 2023 totaled 9.82 million mt, lagging 3% behind the same period in 2022.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Dec 28, 2023

U.S. fuel ethanol production was up 3 percent the week ending Dec. 22, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Dec. 28. Stocks of fuel ethanol were also up 3 percent, while exports were down 33 percent. 

Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.107 million barrels per day the week ending Dec. 22, up 36,000 barrels per day when compared to the 1.071 million barrels per day of production reported for the previous week, and the highest level of production reported since October 2021. When compared to the same week of last year, production for the week ending Dec. 22 was up 144,000 barrels per day. 

Weekly ending stocks of fuel ethanol for the reached 23.517 million barrels the week ending Dec. 22, up 611,000 barrels when compared to the 22.906 million barrels of stocks reported for the previous week. When compared to the same week of last year, stocks for the week ending Dec. 22 were up 1.119 million barrels.

Fuel ethanol exports averaged 132,000 barrels per day the week ending Dec. 22, down 64,000 barrels per day when compared to the 196,000 barrels per day of exports reported for the previous week. Data on weekly ethanol exports is not available for the corresponding week of 2022 as the EIA began reporting weekly data on fuel ethanol exports in June 2023. No fuel ethanol imports were reported for the week ending Dec. 22.

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Ethanol Proucer Magazine

Dec 21, 2023

CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange on Dec. 14 released a report focused on forces that will shape the U.S. rural economy next year. The report predicts that both ethanol producers and soybean crushers will benefit from rising demand for biofuels in 2024. 

“The biofuel sector at large carries the momentum of historically large profit margins into the new year,” CoBank wrote in the report. With renewable identification number (RIN) prices declining, selling renewable diesel outside of the California market is expected to be less profitable. Ethanol margins are expected to remain comparatively healthy in 2024 due to a combination of affordable natural gas prices and corn prices that are under pressure from a record harvest and weak export demand. 

A slowing global economy and surplus of energy on the work market is currently depressing fuel and ethanol prices. The risk of conflict spreading in the Middle East and disrupting supply lines among oil-exporting countries could result in a global energy shock and surge in fuel and ethanol prices, according to the report. 

The report also notes that the booming renewable diesel industry combined with the shorter U.S. soybean crop harvest of 2023 will drive an expansion of soybean acreage in the U.S. next year, reducing available acreage for other crops. Soybean planted acreage is currently expected to be up 4 percent when compared to 2023, at 87 million acres. Corn acreage is expected to fall 4 percent to 91 million acres. 

A full copy of the report is available on the CoBank website.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Dec 19, 2023

The U.S. EPA on Dec. 18 delivered its final rule to allow year-round E15 sales in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin to the White House Office of Management and Budget. OMB reviews marks a final step before a rulemaking is promulgated. 

Several Midwestern governors  in April 2022 filed petitions with the EPA requesting that the agency remove the 1-psi Reid vapor pressure (RVP) waiver for summer gasoline-ethanol blended fuels, which would effectively allow E15 to be sold year-round within their states.

The EPA is required by statute to respond to such petitions within 90 days but, to date, has failed to take final action. The agency  released a proposed rule  to implement the requested change in February 2023. A comment period on the proposed rule was open through April 20. The agency has now submitted the final rule for OMB review. Information released by OMB indicates the target issue date for the final rule is “to be determined,” but the agency has stated as part of an ongoing lawsuit that it currently plans to promulgate the final rule next spring.

That ongoing lawsuit was filed by the attorneys general of Iowa and Nebraska on Aug. 7  over the agency’s failure to respond to the Midwest E15 petitions. Documents filed as part of that ongoing lawsuit indicate that the EPA currently plans to issue a final rule by March 28, 2024.

The Renewable Fuels Association is urging the OMB to quickly finalize the rulemaking. “We are relieved to see that this rule has finally moved forward to the White House for review,” said Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the RFA. “OMB review marks the final step in this long and arduous regulatory process. We are urging OMB to move quickly to finalize the Governors’ request so that the marketplace will have adequate lead time to continue preparing for implementation in 2024. Swift completion of this rule will ensure drivers in these eight Midwest states enjoy cleaner air and have uninterrupted, year-round access to lower-cost, lower-carbon E15 in 2024 and every year after that.

“While we strongly support the action being taken by these eight Midwestern states, the optimal solution for the marketplace is a permanent legislative fix that applies nationwide,” Cooper continued. “As a first order of business in the new year, we urge Congress to expeditiously adopt the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act to provide the market certainty and stability that the entire nation is looking for.”

The American Coalition for Ethanol is also calling on OMB to move quickly with its review of the rule. "We are gratified EPA has at long last sent the final rule to allow Midwest states to offer E15 on a year-round basis,” said Brian Jennings, CEO of ACE. “Despite the upcoming Christmas holiday, we urge OMB to quickly perform its closing review so the final rule can be issued early in 2024. All market participants, including but not limited to retailers, wholesalers, terminal operators and refineries, should expect and plan for this rule to take effect in the eight states for the 2024 summer driving season and plan accordingly."

Growth Energy expressed gratitude that the rulemaking is moving forward. “This is a welcome step forward for farmers and drivers across the Midwest,” said Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy. “We’re grateful to the governors of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin for pressing for uninterrupted access to low-cost, low-carbon E15, and we’ll continue to call on EPA and the White House to grant year-round E15 nationwide. Biofuels like E15 are a critical part of reaching our climate goals, and we urge President Biden to swiftly approve the expanded sale of E15.” 

Additional information is available on the OMB website.

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Renewable Fuels Association

Dec 6, 2023

U.S. ethanol exports decreased 3% to a still-healthy 117.1 million gallons (mg). Canada was our largest destination for the 31st consecutive month with exports of 64.6 mg (94% denatured) accounting for 55% of total sales on a 7% increase from September. This is the largest single-country purchase since Brazil’s offtake in March 2019. The U.S. exported 13.7 mg to India (following four months of near-zero volumes) and 12.6 mg to the United Kingdom (down 8% from September). Virtually all remaining ethanol exports were distributed among seven markets, with the largest volumes landing in the Philippines (6.5 mg, +176%), South Korea (6.0 mg, +17%), Peru (5.7 mg, +89%), and Mexico (5.1 mg, -9%). Brazil again was notably absent from the U.S. ethanol export market. Year-to-date exports, totaling 1.16 billion gallons, are steady with last year at this time.

There were no U.S. imports on record in October, according to the monthly data. Only 17.4 mg of foreign ethanol has been imported thus far in 2023, of which essentially all was sourced from Brazil.

Exports of dried distillers grains (DDGS), the animal feed co-product generated by dry-mill ethanol plants, tightened by 13% to a 6-month low of 896,708 metric tons (mt). Mexico was our largest destination for the sixteenth consecutive month with exports of 193,524 mt—a 4% decrease from September. DDGS exports to Vietnam were robust at 121,271 mt despite a 13% decline. Shipments strengthened to Canada, up 47% to a 16-month high of 92,924 mt. Other larger markets included South Korea (76,456 mt, -31%), Indonesia (66,351 mt, +7%), Turkey (38,325, +22%), Japan (35,451 mt, +1%), and China (30,530 mt, -8%). There was a notable lift in exports to Central American countries (a 5-year high) as well as record volumes to Cambodia. Year-to-date U.S. DDGS exports total 8.99 million mt, which lags 4% behind last year at this time.

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US Grains Council

Nov 30, 2023

The U.S. Grains Council (USGC) recently participated in a panel at the Latin American Energy Organization's (OLADE's) annual Energy Week. Pictured from left to right, the panel included Juan Diaz, USGC Latin America regional ethanol consultant; Julio Minelli of the Brazilian Association of Biofuels Producers; Flavio Castellari of the Brazilian Ethanol Cluster; Patrick Adam of the Chamber of Corn Ethanol in Argentina; Agustin Torroba of the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture; and Yamila Hana of the National Alcohol and Portland Fuels Administration.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Grains Council (USGC) was invited by the Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE) to participate in a panel, “Opportunities for Liquid Biofuels in Latin America and its Role in the Decarbonization of the Transportation Sector,” during the VIII Energy Week event held in Montevideo, Uruguay.

OLADE offers technical assistance and helps ensure cooperation and coordination in promotion and use of Latin America’s energy resources.

“The Council’s participation, along with IICA and the Pan American Coalition for Biofuels, represents an opportunity to provide updated information on the role of biofuels in decarbonizing the transportation sector and illustrating the capability that the Americas, as a region, has to expand the use of biofuels and become a successful case to emulate in the world,” said Juan Diaz, USGC Latin America (LTA) regional ethanol consultant.

The  panel  featured USGC’s LTA Regional Ethanol Consultant Juan Diaz; Yamila Hana of the National Alcohol and Portland Fuels Administration (ANCAP); Patrick Adam of the Chamber of Corn Ethanol in Argentina (Biomaíz); Julio Minelli of the Brazilian Association of Biofuels Producers (Aprobio); Flavio Castellari of the Brazilian Ethanol Cluster (APLA); and Agustin Torroba of the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA), who discussed biofuel’s contribution to the decarbonization of the transportation sector. The discussion also highlighted the potential the LTA region has to expand the production and the promotion of biofuels.

The Council shared a timeline of the ethanol industry and how the United States was able to create an industry that is the largest ethanol producer in the world but also one of the most committed industries to reach net zero by 2050. The audience was impressed by the ambitious goals of the U.S. ethanol industry, including the 2030 milestone of ethanol creating a 70 percent carbon reduction compared to gasoline.

“While there has been a lot of attention paid to electro-mobility in the energy transition discussion, the organizations participating in this session elevated the use of biofuels as an alternate solution in determining a pathway to replace fossil fuels with other cleaner sources,” Diaz said.

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Congresswoman Angie Craig

Nov 30, 2023

WASHINGTON, DCU.S. Representatives Angie Craig and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) introduced bipartisan legislation aimed at expanding flex fuel vehicle production in the United States.

The  Flex Fuel Fairness Act  would incentivize automakers to manufacture flex fuel vehicles – which would provide consumers with more options and support Minnesota’s family farmers and producers.

“Renewable fuels are a solution we can implement to combat climate change right now, and we know that flex fuel vehicles help Minnesotans save money at the pump, support family farmers and producers and help protect the environment. That’s why I introduced this bipartisan bill with my colleague Rep. Miller-Meeks to expand flex-fuel vehicle production – and I’ll keep working to get our bill passed,”said Rep. Craig.

“As we look toward a cleaner energy future with options to lower carbon emissions, it’s imperative to amplify solutions like flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) and ensure that they are included as a low-carbon option,”said Rep. Miller-Meeks.“FFVs provide more options for consumers and the U.S. supply chain and unlock increased use of lower-carbon liquid fuel blends containing higher levels of ethanol, like E30 and E85. I am proud to lead the ‘Flex Fuel Fairness Act of 2023,’ and level the playing field for FFVs as a practical alternative to Electric Vehicles.”

“The Minnesota Bio-Fuels Association applauds Representative Craig for her leadership in introducing the Flex Fuel Fairness Act in the House. To reduce transportation emissions quickly and meaningfully, we need to utilize clean energy vehicle technologies that accelerate the use of higher blends of low-carbon, renewable fuels that are produced here in Minnesota. This bipartisan bill will help unlock the carbon reduction potential of renewable fuels and flex fuel vehicles. We sincerely appreciate Rep. Craig’s work on it,”said Brian Werner, Executive Director of the Minnesota Biofuels Association.

“We thank Reps. Craig, Miller-Meeks, and all the co-sponsors for introducing the Flex Fuel Fairness Act. This bill acknowledges the important emissions benefits of flex fuel vehicles and promotes the continued production of these popular automobiles,”said Renewable Fuels Association President and CEO Geoff Cooper.“This legislation would give automakers more ways to comply with increasingly stringent vehicle emissions standards while providing more clean vehicle options for consumers. By leveling the playing field for all clean vehicle technologies, this bill allows low-carbon liquid fuels like ethanol to work alongside clean electricity, electric vehicles, and other technologies to reduce emissions from transportation.”

Rep. Craig has long advocated for the expansion of biofuel production in Minnesota and across the country. Earlier this year, she was given the National Corn Growers Association’s President’s Award  for her work to support ethanol and biofuel producers in Congress.

Full text of the Flex Fuel Fairness Act  can be found here.

Read the original press release here