In the News

Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jan 11, 2022

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2022 U.S. fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Jan. 11. The outlook for ethanol blending in 2022 was also increased.

The EIA currently predicts that U.S. fuel ethanol production will average 1.02 million barrels per day in both 2022 and 2023, up from an estimated 980,000 barrels per day in 2021. In its December STEO, the agency predicted that 2022 fuel ethanol production would average 1.01 million barrels per day, up from an expected 970,000 barrels per day in 2021. The predictions for 2022 and 2023 production are significantly higher than the 910,000 barrels per day of production reported for 2020, but lower than the 1.03 million barrels per day of production reported for 2019.

Fuel ethanol blending is currently expected to average 930,000 barrels per day in 2022, increasing to 950,000 barrels per day in 2023. Fuel ethanol blending averaged an estimated 910,000 barrels per day in 2021. In December, the EIA predicted 2022 ethanol blending would average 920,000 barrels per day, up from an expected 900,000 barrels per day for 2021. Ethanol blending averaged only 820,000 barrels per day in 2020. The EIA said the increased forecast in ethanol consumption included in the January STEO reflects the agency’s expectation of increasing gasoline demand. At the forecasted levels for 2022 and 2023, the EIA said the ethanol share of gasoline consumption would be near the 2020 and 2021 levels of 10.3 percent.

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Energy AgWired

Jan 10, 2022

Despite a slight drop, U.S. ethanol production kept above the million barrels per day level for the last week of 2021. Production maintained a million barrels per day for 12 weeks in a row the last half of the year, for a total of 24 weeks in 2021. 

According to EIA data  analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association  for the week ending December 31, ethanol production eased by 11,000 barrels per day (b/d), or 1.0%, to 1.048 million b/d, equivalent to 44.02 million gallons daily. Production was 12.1% above the same week last year, which was affected by the pandemic, but 1.3% less than the same week two years ago. The four-week average ethanol production volume decreased 1.0% to 1.061 million b/d, equivalent to an annualized rate of 16.27 billion gallons (bg).

Ethanol stocks jumped 3.3% to a twenty-week high of 21.4 million barrels. Stocks were 8.3% below the year-ago level and 4.9% less than the same week two years ago

In 2020, ethanol production was over a million barrels per day for the first 12 weeks of the year but never hit that mark again after COVID struck and total production for the year was under 14 billion gallons, the lowest in more than five years. Production this year is expected to be well above 15 billion gallons, but not as high as the record 16 billion set in 2018.

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Brownfield Ag News

Jan 5, 2022

The director of global ethanol market development for the U.S. Grains Council says ethanol exports felt the full weight of the pandemic during the last marketing year.

But Brian Healy tells Brownfield the numbers were still relatively positive and the fifth highest ever at 1.31 billion gallons.

“A lot of the losses that we saw in early 2020 rebounded as some of those stay-at-home orders eased. We saw that demand change here in the U.S. and certainly saw that pick up in terms of fuel demand around the world.”

Canada was the largest market last year, followed by India.

“It’s an industrial use market, so not for fuel use at this time. But certainly (USGC) is optimistic that their policy for E20 will hold and create some new demand opportunities there.”

Healy says South Korea, China and the European Union rounded out the top five markets for U.S. ethanol in 2021.

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Renewable Fuels Association

Jan 4, 2022

By Randall Doyal

I write today in response to an opinion piece published on Wednesday. This piece,  authored by John DeCicco,  is rampant with errors and false assumptions concerning the biofuels industry. As a 40 year veteran of the industry, I have seen and heard a lot of misinformation concerning biofuels, particularly ethanol. The petroleum industry has been fighting against ethanol since the early 1900s and that fight to control the market continues on with the DeCicco piece. Would it surprise your readers to learn that the “research” done by DeCicco and his group at the University of Michigan was actually heavily funded by API, the American Petroleum Institute? That is a fact.

The author claims that the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) was enacted in the wake of 9/11. That is not true. The RFS was enacted after the petroleum industry was unsuccessful in getting Congress to protect the use of a petroleum product called MTBE as an oxygenate in gasoline. Because MTBE is very hazardous and causes serious environmental harm, states began to ban its use around 2004. So, the petroleum industry made the switch to using ethanol, which is also an oxygenate, instead, in 2005, and agreed to support the RFS requiring ethanol’s use. Communities all over the corn belt responded quickly to the RFS by building additional ethanol plants. In light of that rapid response to the new demand, and in recognition of increasing dependence on foreign crude oil, Congress decided to move forward with an expanded RFS in 2007. The vision here was to use cleaner, less polluting fuels that could be produced sustainably and renewably and thus help reduce our dependence on foreign oil, while also reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and tailpipe pollutants.

The Renewable Fuel Standard has been an outstanding success in reducing harmful emissions from gasoline by displacing some of the worst actors, which are called “aromatics.” These chemicals were used primarily for their high octane value (octane helps gasoline burn more completely and efficiently). But ethanol has the highest octane value of any fuel and is available at the lowest cost.  And according to various universities and government research labs, the use of ethanol in our fuel in 2020 alone reduced the total CO2 emissions from our vehicles by 47.3 million metric tons. And that calculation even includes excessive and speculative modeling assumptions for CO2 production from farming and ethanol production, as well as an additional emissions penalty for hypothetical and unproven “land-use changes.” This CO2 emissions reduction is the same as if we had removed 10 million vehicles from the roads for the year, or if we had shut down 12 large coal-fired power plants. This is the one place we are actually having a huge impact on the reduction of atmospheric carbon, and the real results are even better. Hopefully, the research will one day catch up to the dynamic improvements in farming and in ethanol production, rather than lagging behind more than 5 years as they do currently.

It is important to note the huge anti-farm, and particularly the anti-corn, bias built into the emissions models used by EPA in the creation of the RFS. People assumed that if we created all this new demand for corn to produce ethanol, we would have to convert a whole lot of land into new farmland to continue to supply all the food and feed that land currently supplied. So, a large carbon emissions penalty was added to ethanol to account for this supposed “land-use change” that would occur if forest and grassland were converted to cropland. Now, even if that false assumption were true, the penalty for conversion would be a one-time penalty. Instead, it is added to every gallon produced over all these years. That makes no sense at all. But even with that added carbon penalty and using data that is more than 5 years old in terms of efficiency and energy consumption, ethanol still reduces total carbon emission by about half compared to gasoline. And the actual results are better than that!

How much has our land use changed? The change has indeed been significant…but is the exact opposite of what Professor DeCicco would lead you to think.  In 1999, the U.S. had 365 million acres of land planted to crops, or listed as prevented plant, or in CRP. The assumptions in the models behind the RFS would lead you to believe that we would need about another 35 million acres planted after the RFS was enacted in 2007. Looking to 2017-2020 after the ethanol industry reached full capacity under the RFS, the actual amount of land that was planted to crops, prevent planted, or in CRP actually dropped to 345 million acres. Instead of needing more land, we are actually using less land for crop production than we did before the RFS. Why? The first reason is urbanization, where one to two million acres of prime farmland is lost to houses every year. But what is also overlooked is how much more efficient our farmers are, producing more and more bushels per acre while using fewer inputs and energy each year. Here are the facts: in 2007 (the year the RFS was expanded), Minnesota farmers planted 8.4 million acres of corn and averaged 146 bushels per acre. In 2021, farmers here planted 8.3 million acres of corn and averaged 186 bushels per acre – even with drought affecting parts of the state! Those are the facts we should all be celebrating.

But another part of what is missing is the understanding of the ethanol process. Making ethanol does not reduce our supply of livestock feed in any real sense. Our livestock need the protein in the corn, not the starch. Located in farm country, ethanol plants buy corn from local farmers, remove the starch and convert it into ethanol. The process also captures some of the corn oil for use in producing biodiesel. The remaining fractions of the corn are concentrated into a higher protein, higher value feed called distiller grains. This product then requires only one-third the volume of transportation to deliver basically the same protein value to the livestock growers. That is a huge saving in energy and reduction of carbon emissions just in transportation. So, we didn’t need more acres to produce the feed, we just changed the form to something more efficient.

America’s farmers are producing renewable, sustainable crops like corn with greater efficiencies and greater yields, while simultaneously lowering the inputs and energy consumed. They are doing so in ways that increasingly provide greater sequestration of carbon in their fields, and they have only just begun that effort. What do you see when you look at a field of corn? I see an incredible array of natural solar collectors that are using solar energy to drive photosynthesis, pulling huge volumes of CO2 out of the atmosphere, and producing huge amounts of oxygen, which we all need to breathe! Were you aware that our midwestern fields produce more oxygen than the rainforests of South America during our growing season? That is a fact. And our ethanol industry gets to access the solar energy stored by the corn in tiny batteries called corn kernels, converting it to a liquid fuel that burns cleaner and reduces CO2 emissions from our vehicles, while concentrating the protein and sending it on to feed our livestock.

Don’t fall for the false opinions funded by API or their ilk. Look instead at the facts, the reality, and see the amazing success we have created locally and sustainably that starts right here at home and positively impacts our world. DeCicco would have you use more petroleum rather than less. Let’s use more renewable, sustainable, cleaner energy produced right here from the sunlight falling on our farms.

Read the original RFA story here.

Today morning, Minnesota Bio-Fuels Association's executive director, Tim Rudnicki, testified during a virtual hearing on the EPA's proposed RVOs for 2020, 2021 and 2022. Read his prepared testimony below:

Good morning.  My name is Timothy J. Rudnicki.  I represent the Minnesota Bio-Fuels Association, a trade organization for ethanol producers in Minnesota. 

In Minnesota, the annual total ethanol production has once again exceeded 1 billion gallons.  Our ethanol is a greenhouse gas emission cutting tool because our producers reuse water, operate innovative production technology, including combined heat and power systems, and explore ways to further reduce GHG emissions in the supply chain.

These and other production factors make renewable ethanol an important tool in the efforts to cut transportation sector GHG emissions.  The EPA acknowledges this point in the Federal Register at page 72441. 

We recognize the EPA is requesting comment on several critical provisions of the proposed rule.  To keep my comments here short, we will submit written comments addressing specific issues with the proposed rule.  With that, I will briefly speak to what appears to be a fundamental EPA assumption about the lack of effectiveness of the RFS and the RVOs.

At the outset, we commend the EPA for taking some steps to get the RFS back on track.  Yet, perhaps, a fundamental assumption about the inability of the Renewable Fuel Standard to increase the use of higher ethanol blends may be holding the EPA back on the RVO track.

The EPA, at Federal Register page 72447, talks about the limited success the RFS has and will have in growing the use of ethanol beyond E10 even with various incentive programs.  

From our vantage point in Minnesota, the RFS has actually helped to grow the use of ethanol well beyond the mythical E10 blendwall.

In Minnesota, the greater the RVO numbers, the greater the incentive for the fuel supply chain to use higher blends of renewable ethanol.  In Minnesota, the combination of state and federal programs and private investments help fuel retailers transition to offering E15 as evidenced by the 408 fuel retailers that now offer E15.  In Minnesota, based on the last data sets from the Energy Information Administration, at least 12.6% of the liquid fuel for internal combustion engines was renewable ethanol.

So, from our vantage point, the RFS is helping to grow the use of renewable fuel.  The RFS is boosting the economy in Minnesota while helping to make us more energy independent.  And the RFS is helping to cut GHG emissions.  We need the EPA to stand strong and set forth aggressive RVOs to keep the focus on reducing the use of fossil fuels and using biofuels to cut transportation sector GHG emissions.

U.S. Grains Council

Dec 9, 2021

The U.S. Grains Council's (USGC's) South Korea office recently took part in the Seoul Mobility Show. At the event, the Council worked to display the benefits of ethanol through conversations with attendees, interviews with the media and handing out promotional items. Pictured, USGC director in South Korea Haksoo Kim speaks with show-goers on the Council's ethanol work.

Little visitors spent time with the Council's interactive booth components.

To convey the benefits of ethanol to government and industry stakeholders, the media and consumers, the U.S. Grains Council’s (USGC’s) South Korea office participated in the Seoul Mobility Show from Nov. 25 – Dec. 5.

“The Seoul Mobility Show was an excellent opportunity to inform the media and other trade show participants about the carbon-saving benefits of ethanol,” said Haksoo Kim, USGC director in South Korea. “We remain optimistic that the Korean government will include bioethanol in the carbon-neutral scenario in the transportation sector next year.”

Nearly 8,000 visitors stopped by the Council’s “I Love Bioethanol” booth throughout the 10-day event to learn more about the necessity of introducing a bioethanol policy in Korea.

Council staff conducted a survey with those who stopped by the booth, participated in more than 20 interviews for local media and passed out recycled tumblers and eco-bags that featured the “I Love Bioethanol” logo.

“Of the 2,964 people who responded to the survey, 93.4 percent said carbon reduction was necessary in the transportation sector, and 80.2 percent said it is necessary to blend bioethanol to reduce carbon in the transportation sector in South Korea,” Kim said.

South Korea, a strong industrial-use market for ethanol, is currently exploring ways for the transport sector to reduce emissions, illustrated during the  Climate Crisis And Biofuel Symposium  held in early September.

“Ethanol has a compelling role in Korea to reduce its transport sector carbon emissions,” said Brian Healy, USGC director of global ethanol market development. “Events like this mobility show are a great way to highlight the pathway for a direct blending policy.”

With a goal of realizing carbon neutrality by 2050, the Council’s South Korea office has emphasized the important part ethanol can play in carbon reduction in the transportation sector by hosting educational programs and participating in public events.

U.S. ethanol exports to Korea totaled 137 million gallons in the 2020/2021 marketing year, a 23 percent increase compared to the previous marketing year.

Read the original story here.

Successful Farming

Dec 21, 2021

Happy days are here again at ethanol plants, with profits nearing the all-time high set in 2014.

The black ink has all but erased the industry’s bad old days of 2020 brought on by the pandemic-induced cutback in liquid fuel use.

Scott Irwin, Laurence J. Norton chair of agricultural marketing at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, says the rapid rise in ethanol plant profits has brought smiles to ethanol plant operators and owners across the United States. 

“Happy days are here again is an accurate statement right now,” Irwin says. While he doubts 2021’s profit margins will top the record returns from seven years ago, he expects them to be close because of the incredible ethanol price spike that occurred in the last four months of the year. On March 28, 2014, a representative Iowa ethanol plant modeled by Irwin chalked up a record profit margin of $1.53 per gallon. In mid-November 2021, profits at the representative Iowa plant totaled $1.34 a gallon.

“We are in rarefied territory for ethanol prices and profits, and it’s happened over a pretty short period of time,” Irwin notes. “What’s really interesting is that on August 1, plants were basically operating at break-even margins. Since then, ethanol prices and profits have gone literally straight up.” At the beginning of 2021, Iowa plants were selling each gallon of ethanol for $1.39. By November, ethanol prices had more than doubled to $3.17 a gallon. 

Connie Lindstrom, senior biofuels benchmarking analyst at Christianson, PLLP, in Willmar, Minnesota, says ethanol prices have been pushed higher because ethanol demand has outpaced supplies and corn prices have stabilized since harvest began. Ethanol plants also have seen strong demand for the coproducts they produce, particularly for corn oil that is processed into renewable diesel, she adds.

Christianson, which analyzes the finances of 60 ethanol plants that account for 35% of U.S. ethanol production, also has noted that prices paid for corn have stabilized because of favorable yields from the 2021 harvest, according to Lindstrom. “We had a good corn harvest this year,” she says, “which kept corn prices stable.” The twin trends of higher ethanol demand and abundant feedstock supply should continue, she adds, “which means we should get some pretty good profitability going forward.”

Scott Richman, chief economist at the Renewable Fuels Association in St. Louis, Missouri, says the financial fortunes of ethanol plants started to turn around in August. That’s when stocks of old-crop corn were running low, corn prices were relatively high, and margins for ethanol producers were quite thin, he says. Those negative factors led to a drop in ethanol production through mid-September.

PROFITS RISE 

When the 2021 corn crop started arriving in September, Richman states, gasoline demand surged and ethanol plants’ profit margins rose considerably. “Since then, ethanol production has really geared up,” he says, “and we’ve been producing more than a million barrels of ethanol a day for six straight weeks, approaching all-time production records a couple of times. And because ethanol demand has remained so strong, we’ve been unable to rebuild stocks.”

Walt Wendland, president and chairman of the board of Ringneck Energy in Onida, South Dakota, says dry weather cut corn yields in the area, but the plant has been profitable because higher ethanol prices have outstripped the higher corn prices the plant is paying.

Ringneck Energy, which began production in April 2019, produces 80 million gallons of ethanol a year. After a challenging first year, Wendland says, Ringneck Energy was turning the corner financially in March 2020, when COVID-19 hit and demand for gasoline and ethanol both plummeted. “Our start-up year in 2019 was extremely challenging, but when we went into 2020, things were starting to look better until COVID hit,” Wendland recalls. “Eventually, we’ve come out of it OK, and things are looking pretty promising.”

During the depths of the economic implosion caused by the pandemic, Ringneck Energy cut production by 50% or more when there was little demand. “During the third and fourth quarters of 2020,” Wendland says, “we returned to full production.”

CORN USE JUMPS

Corn remains the preferred feedstock for ethanol plants. In November, the USDA estimated corn used for ethanol production in the 2021-2022 marketing year to total 5.25 billion bushels, up 50 million from its previous estimate.

Because dry weather cut average corn yields in central South Dakota, where Ringneck Energy is located, the plant has been bringing in 20 to 25 railcars of corn every week to supplement the local corn it purchases for processing. The plant processes 80,000 bushels of corn a day. Local corn yields averaged about 100 to 120 bushels per acre (bpa) in 2021, Wendland notes. Normal yields are closer to 150 bpa and 190 to 220 bpa in a good year.

“We had an extended shutdown in August thinking that we’d have an early harvest in mid-September,” Wendland says, “but we had some rains that delayed the start of harvest until the first of October.” The late harvest meant that Ringneck Energy had to start using a 50-50 corn-to-milo mix for processing, although corn is the preferred feedstock for the plant’s ethanol. Milo accounts for less than 5% of the plant’s production, according to Wendland, who credits the plant’s marketing team for keeping it supplied with feedstocks, despite the dry weather.

Ethanol stocks haven’t increased because ethanol demand has risen even faster, Wendland says, and higher ethanol prices have outpaced corn prices. Ringneck Energy ships 60% of its ethanol on the BNSF Railway to the West Coast, and 40% of its ethanol goes to markets in the South and western United States, he adds. 

The company sells wet distillers’ grains to local cattle-feeding and cow-calf operations in the area, which means it saves on natural gas expenses by not having to dry the distillers’ grains.

“Corn oil prices have been unbelievable,” Wendland notes, because of renewable diesel demand. “That’s been a real growth market for our corn oil and an industry-wide focus for increasing profits.” Ringneck Energy has capitalized on those high prices by increasing its corn oil yields by 50%, he says.

2022 OUTLOOK 

Steve Roe, general manager and CEO at Little Sioux Corn Processors, LLC, in Marcus, Iowa, says the plant had one of its best quarters ever in the third quarter of 2021 and the fourth quarter looks to be even better.

As for 2022, “I don’t see how we are going to have as good a year as we’ve had in 2021,” he notes. “I just don’t think these large returns are sustainable.”

Exports are the wild card for 2022. “Export prospects look promising because oil prices are high worldwide, so that will push ethanol exports up as people substitute ethanol for gasoline,” Roe says. Domestic demand for ethanol will be 14.5 billion gallons in 2021 based on the amount of gasoline consumed. With U.S. ethanol production expected to exceed 15 billion gallons this year, exports are going to have to make up the difference, he adds. 

Domestic demand is expected to remain high.

Read the original story here.

UCF Today

Dec 14, 2021

A new material developed by the University of Central Florida may one day mean people could be pouring a drink for their car. That’s because UCF researchers are developing an alcohol-based power source for cars and other technology.

The power source —an ethanol fuel cell — is a renewable energy alternative to fossil fuels and uses less fuel and produces less emissions compared to a combustion engine.

This is because ethanol is used as a fuel to generate electricity rather than heat generated by combustion as in an engine. As a bonus, the approach requires no recharging time like is needed for battery-based electric vehicles, meaning consumers will have more options for alternatives to fossil fuels.

The fuel cell would be replenished similar to refilling a gas tank in a car, but instead of gasoline, ethanol would be used. Ethanol can be generated through fermentation of biomass such as corn and other plants.

The new technology is described in this month’s edition of the journal  Nature Energy.

“Our research enables direct ethanol fuel cells to become a new player to compete with hydrogen-fuel cells and batteries in various sustainable energy fields,” says Yang Yang, an associate professor in UCF’s  NanoScience Technology Center  and study co-author.

The development of ethanol fuel cells has been hindered in the past by sluggish internal reactions that hamper their performance, he says.

UCF researchers are overcoming this problem by adding the element fluorine to the palladium-nitrogen-carbon catalysts that spur electrical production in the fuel cell.

“Our lab has continued to work on fluorine-doped materials for energy and sustainability,” Yang says. “We spent more than two years on this project, we never stop because we believe this invention will change the world.”

Yang says the fluorine works to increase the effectiveness of the ethanol fuel cell by enhancing catalytic activity and decreasing corrosion.

The researchers found their designed catalyst achieves a maximum power density of 0.57 watts per centimeter square and more than 5,900 hours of operation in direct energy ethanol fuel cells. This has several times more power and operation time than previously developed ethanol fuel cells.

Yang says the technology is ready for commercialization now, and the research team is working on reducing the raw materials used and to reduce the manufacturing cost of the developed catalysts.

Study co-authors at UCF were Jinfa Chang, a postdoctoral researcher with UCF’s NanoScience Technology Center; Guanzhi Wang and Wei Zhang, doctoral students with the NanoScience Technology Center and UCF’s  Department of Materials Science and Engineering;  and Nina Orlovskaya, an associate professor in UCF’s  Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering.

Yang holds joint appointments in UCF’s NanoScience Technology Center and the Department of Materials Science and Engineering, which is part of the university’s  College of Engineering and Computer Science.  He is a member of UCF’s  Renewable Energy and Chemical Transformation (REACT) Cluster.  He also holds a secondary joint-appointment in UCF’s  Department of Chemistry.  Before joining UCF in 2015, he was a postdoctoral fellow at Rice University and an Alexander von Humboldt Fellow at the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg in Germany. He received his doctorate in materials science from Tsinghua University in China.

Read the original story here.