EIA Predicts Increased Ethanol Blending This Summer

  • Thursday, 11 April 2019 14:25

Ethanol Producer Magazine

April 10, 2019

By Erin Voegele

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the April edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, maintaining its March forecast for 2019 and 2020 ethanol production and predicting increased ethanol blending during the upcoming summer driving season.

In the new STEO, the EIA maintains its previous prediction that ethanol production will average 1.04 million barrels per day this year, increasing to 1.05 million barrels per day next year.

On a quarterly basis, the EIA shows ethanol production averaged approximately 1.01 million barrels per day during the first three months of this year. Production is expected to increase to 1.05 million barrels per day during the second quarter, and then fall to 1.04 million barrels per day during the final half of 2019. In 2020, ethanol production is expected to average 1.04 million barrels per day during the first quarter, before increasing to 1.05 million barrels per day for the remainder of the year.

The EIA currently expects ethanol consumption to average 950,000 barrels per day in both 2019 and 2020, up from 940,000 barrels per day in 2018.

The EIA’s April STEO also addresses ethanol blending in its outlook for summer gasoline. According to the report, the EIA currently forecasts fuel ethanol blending will reach 974,000 million barrels per day during the second quarter of this year, up 3.2 percent when compared to the same quarter of last year. Ethanol blending during the third quarter is expected to reach 966,000 barrels per day, up 0.8 percent when compared to the same period of 2018.  For the full six-month period, the EIA expects ethanol blending to average 970,000 barrels per day, up 2 percent when compared to the same period of last year.

The EIA’s most recent weekly data shows ethanol production averaged 1.0.2 million barrels per day the week ending April 5, up from 999,000 barrels per day the previous week. Weekly ending stocks of ethanol fell to 23.193 million barrels the week ending April 5, down from 23.992 million barrels the previous week.

The agency’s most recent monthly data shows the U.S. imported 255,000 barrels of ethanol in December, all from Brazil. The EIA’s most recent export data shows the U.S. exported 3.048 million barrels of ethanol in January, primarily to Brazil, Canada, and India.

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