In the News
Sep 2, 2020
Highwater Ethanol LLC, a 59 MMgy ethanol plant located in Lamberton, Minnesota, filed an 8-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Sept. 1 announcing an agreement with Nelson Baker Biotech Inc. for the installation of a system to produce 20 MMgy of hydrous USP grade ethanol, which is used in the sanitizer market.
The filing indicates Highwater and Nelson Baker executed the construction agreement on Aug. 26. The agreement provides for a fixed price, which includes design, engineering and construction management.
Construction is expected to begin before the end of the current fiscal year, which ends Oct. 31. The project is expected to be complete during the second fiscal quarter of 2021.
A full copy of the 8-K is available on the SEC website.
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Aug 28, 2020
The USDA recently released its Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report for August, reporting that corn use for fuel ethanol production was at 379 million bushels in June, up from the previous month, but down from June 2019.
Total corn consumed for alcohol and other uses was 431 million bushels in June, up 22 percent from May, but down 15 percent from June of the previous year. June usage included 90.8 percent for alcohol and 9.2 percent for other purposes.
Corn consumed for fuel alcohol was at 379 million bushels, up 26 percent from the previous month, but down 17 percent when compared to June 2019. Corn consumed in June for dry milling fuel production and wet milling fuel production was 89 percent and 11 percent, respectively.
Sorghum consumption for fuel alcohol production fell to 1.286 million hundredweight (cwt) (72,016 tons) down from 2.047 million cwt in May and 4.918 million cwt in June 2019.
At dry mills, condensed distillers solubles production was at 86,233 tons, up from 81,971 tons in May, but down from 97,365 tons in June 2019. Corn oil production was at 135,676 tons, up from 104,898 tons in May, but down from 164,266 tons the same month of the previous year. Distillers dried grains production was at 268,201 tons, up from 205,750 tons in May and 369,394 tons in June 2019. Distillers dried grains with solubles production was at 1.66 million tons, up from 1.23 million tons the previous month, but down from 1.96 million tons in June 2019. Distillers wet grains production was at 824,313 tons, up from 242,264 tons in May, but down from 391,650 tons in June of the previous year. Modified distillers wet grains production was at 309,981 tons, up from 242,264 tons in May, but down from 391,650 tons in June 2019.
At wet mills, corn germ meal production was at 65,113 tons, up from 64,200 tons in May, but down from 66,291 tons in June 2019. Corn gluten feed production increased to 294,074 tons, up from 291,064 tons the previous month and 286,101 tons in June 2019. Corn gluten meal production fell to 90,257 tons, down from 91,013 tons in May and 92,107 tons in June 2019. Wet corn gluten feed production was at 244,097 tons, up form 224,695 tons in May, but down from 250,826 tons in June 2019.
At wet and dry mills, carbon dioxide captured was at 184,413 tons in June, up from 149,453 tons the previous month, but down from 260,283 tons in June 2019.
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Aug 27, 2020
The U.S. EPA has released renewable identification number (RIN) data for July, reporting that 1.62 billion RINs were generated during the month under the Renewable Fuel Standard, up from 1.51 billion RINs generated in June.
More than 40.63 million D3 cellulosic biofuel RINs were generated in July, including 30.89 million generated for compressed renewable natural gas (RNG) by domestic producers, 6.79 million generated for liquified RNG by domestic producers, 1.88 million generated for compressed RNG by importers, 809,299 generated for liquefied RNG by importers, and 256,193 generated for cellulosic ethanol by domestic producers.
Total D3 RIN generation for the first seven months of 2020 reached 223.85 million. That volume includes 177.93 million generated for compressed RNG by domestic producers, 37.73 million generated for liquefied RNG by domestic producers, 9.85 million generated for RNG by importers, 7.04 million generated for compressed RNG by importers, and 1.11 million generated for cellulosic ethanol by domestic producers.
More than 382.23 million D4 biomass-based diesel RINs were generated in July, including 243.78 million generated for biodiesel by domestic producers, 72.96 million generated for nonester renewable diesel by domestic producers, 36.44 million generated for nonester renewable diesel by foreign entities, 26.59 million generated for biodiesel by importers, and 2.46 million generated for renewable jet fuel by domestic producers.
Total D4 RIN generation for the first seven months of the year reached 2.48 billion. That volume includes I.52 billion generated for biodiesel by domestic producers, 482.62 million generated for nonester renewable diesel by domestic producers, 299.46 million generated for nonester renewable diesel by foreign entities, 173.38 million generated for biodiesel by importers, and 5.76 million generated for renewable jet fuel by domestic producers.
Nearly 28.79 million D5 advanced biofuel RINs were generated in July, including 22.04 million generated for ethanol by importers, 3.15 million generated for naphtha by domestic producers, 1.8 million generated for ethanol by domestic producers, 1.26 million generated for nonester renewable diesel by domestic producers, 458,114 generated for LPG by domestic producers, 65,164 generated for renewable heating oil by domestic producers, and 10,378 generated for compressed RNG by domestic producers.
Total D5 RIN generation for the first seven months of 2020 reached 141.74 million. That volume includes 66.36 million generated for ethanol by importers, 38.45 million generated for nonester renewable diesel by domestic producers, 16.91 million generated for naphtha by domestic producers, 13.44 million generated for ethanol by domestic producers, 1.46 generated for renewable heating oil by domestic producers, 2.04 million generated for LPG by domestic producers, and 34,676 generated for compressed RNG by domestic producers.
Nearly 1.17 billion D6 renewable fuel RINs were generated in July, including nearly 1.17 billion generated for ethanol by domestic producers, 831,504 generated for nonester renewable diesel by foreign entities, and 572 generated for butanol by domestic producers.
Total D6 RIN generation for the first seven months of the year reached 7.28 billion. That volume includes 7.19 billion generated for ethanol by domestic producers, 91.37 million generated for nonester renewable diesel by foreign entities, 5.43 million generated for ethanol by importers, and 572 generated for butanol.
No D7 cellulosic diesel RINs have been generated so far this year.
According to EPA data, total RIN generation for the first seven months of 2020 was more than 10.14 billion, compared to 11.45 billion generated during the same period of last year.
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Aug 25, 2020
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Aug. 25 issued a statement describing his commitment to the Renewable Fuel Standard and criticizing the Trump Administration’s administration of the program.
“Instead of standing with those who till our land and sow our fields, we have a president who has sold out our farmers by undercutting the Renewable Fuel Standard with the granting of waivers to Big Oil,” Biden said. “Those waivers severely cut ethanol production, costing farmers income and ethanol plant workers their jobs. Now, President Trump refuses to announce the 2021 renewable fuel production levels until after the election, leaving farmers concerned of further cuts to production. The Renewable Fuel Standard marks our bond with our farmers and our commitment to a thriving rural economy. Donald Trump doesn't respect that connection, and he's thrown it away to the detriment of generations of producers across the Midwest and around the country—many of whom put their trust in him four years ago.
“The Obama-Biden Administration kept our word to farmers,” he continued. “A Biden-Harris Administration will promote and advance renewable energy, ethanol, and other biofuels to help rural America and our nation’s farmers, and will honor the critical role the renewable fuel industry plays in supporting the rural economy and the leadership role American agriculture will play in our fight against climate change.”
A Renewable Fuels Association spokesperson said the group is encouraged that the Biden campaign is hearing concerns about small refinery exemptions (SREs) and noted the RFA was able to discuss the issue last week at its welcome event during the NDC’s Leaders of American Agriculture virtual symposium.
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Aug 25, 2020
The Senate Democrats' Climate Committee released a new report on Aug. 25 that details how climate action by Congress can create new jobs and grow the U.S. economy. Biofuels and bioenergy are among the topics discussed.
The 263-page report specifically calls on Congress to achieve 100 percent global net-zero emission by 2050, stimulate economic growth by increasing federal spending on climate action to at least 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) annually, and create at least 10 million new jobs.
In the near-term, the report calls on the U.S. to significantly grow solar and wind energy, energy storage, and electric vehicles while conducting more research into new technologies, advanced biofuels and smaller and safer nuclear power.
One section of the report specifically discusses opportunities associated with the bioeconomy. “The United States can create and expand the economic value and market for agricultural products while reducing the use of fossil fuels, because byproducts of agricultural commodities and other natural waste products can be processed into biobased fuels and chemicals that replace fossil fuel-based products,” the committee wrote. “The growing biobased products industry contributes $393 billion and 4.2 million jobs to the American economy. These products have helped the United States transition away from foreign fossil fuels, generating a 19- 48 percent reduction in emissions when switching from petroleum gasoline to corn-based ethanol for transportation. Many of the bio-based alternatives to fossil fuel-derived chemicals are also less hazardous to human and environmental health; transitioning to them reduces risks to workers, costs associated with handling hazardous chemicals, and long-term contamination passed on to future generations. Additionally, opportunity exists in developing bioproducts that can improve the performance of manmade materials. For example, cellulosic nanomaterials derived from woody biomass can be mixed into concrete and other products to add strength and durability. These technologies offer a significant economic opportunity for farmers and managers of working lands, as well as their rural communities.”
While the federal government has invested in research and development of these products for years, the committee stresses that regulatory uncertainty and market volatility create barriers to private sector investment in advanced biofuels, such as cellulosic ethanol. The committee calls for increased federal funding for research, development and demonstration of advanced biofuels and biobased products from waste products and non-food crops, noting those efforts could significantly accelerate the adoption of advanced biofuels and bioproducts in American commerce, thereby lowering emissions in the transportation, electric and industrial sectors.
“We need a stable framework that accounts for the climate and ecosystem benefits of these fossil fuel alternatives—and passes this value on to farmers and advanced biofuel producers,” the committee wrote. “This would promote the sustained investment necessary to develop the next generation of these products and accelerate their use by consumers and industry. But as this sector grows, we must focus on increasing productivity on each parcel of land, while protecting high-worth conservation areas.”
The report also addresses the potential of on-farm anaerobic digestion (AD) projects. While AD projects have been piloted and deployed over the past two decades, the report notes that their widespread use has been stymied by technical challenges, shifting regulatory climates, and energy prices that did not cover the costs of operation.
“For methane digester systems to be financially viable and truly beneficial to reaching climate goals, farmers must be compensated for capturing methane from their herds,” the committee wrote. “This could be achieved by incorporating the added value of the renewable fuel into its price, resulting in additional income and reduced emissions. Additionally, we must make using them less risky, more practical, and increasingly reliable. Biogas companies are actively innovating in how digesters are owned and operated, which may attract farmers who otherwise would not be willing to host a digester on their farm. To take advantage of the emissions capture potential in this technology, financial incentives should be provided to help with the costs of getting a digester up and running smoothly. These upfront costs can be prohibitive to farmers without assistance, but represent relatively modest investments compared to other emissions sequestration strategies.”
In the electric sector, the report stresses the U.S. needs to develop ways to reduce the price of on-demand, low-carbon generators, such as biomass, geothermal, advanced nuclear, or fossil generation paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS). The committee highlights the potential of biomass power paired with CCS, noting it could potentially contribute to net-negative carbon emission electrical generation.
The report also addresses the potential of CCS paired with advanced and cellulosic biofuels in the liquid fuels sector, stressing that those renewable fuels have the potential to serve as alternatives to fossil fuels if the U.S. continues to invest in their development.
Regarding the Renewable Fuel Standard, the committee notes the use of advanced biofuels has not developed as rapidly as the authors of the RFS envisioned. “This is at least in part because the Trump administration continues to lower biofuel volumes and waive blending requirements under the RFS, jeopardizing the market stability that the RFS was intended to create,” the committee wrote in the report. “New policy tools may be needed to encourage growth of new advanced fuels beyond just corn starch ethanol and soybean biodiesel.”
According to the committee, a federal Low Carbon Fuel Standard may be an effective policy to reduce the carbon intensity of the fuel supply. The report cites the California LCFS as helping to avoid 38 million tons of carbon pollution and the use of 13.7 billion gallons of gasoline to date.
Growth Energy, the Renewable Fuels Association and the American Coalition for Ethanol have spoken out to welcome the inclusion of biofuels in the committee’s climate plan.
“Investments in American biofuels continue to pay dividends for our climate, driving down carbon emissions and replacing toxic fuel additives that poison our air,” said Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy. “We’re pleased to see climate leaders in the Senate examining opportunities to accelerate progress toward a carbon-neutral future by opening the door for cleaner low-carbon biofuels, more green jobs, and continued innovation in renewable bioproducts to replace petroleum. It’s encouraging to see a growing chorus of lawmakers ready to harness the full potential of biofuels to decarbonize our transportation sector, open new doors for agricultural innovation, and break down regulatory barriers holding back production of advanced biofuels.”
“We are glad to see Senate Democrats recognize that renewable fuels like ethanol have an important part to play in our nation’s low-carbon future,” said Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the RFA. “We are pleased to see the Committee acknowledge the role the Renewable Fuel Standard has already played in reducing emissions and we welcome the report’s discussion of a potential national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). This report complements the House Select Committee’s recommendations in June, and it is clear that consensus is building around the need to further reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector.”
“ACE has been laying the strategic groundwork necessary to leverage ethanol’s low carbon value in the market through new clean fuel policy solutions at the state and federal level,” said Brian Jennings, CEO of ACE. “We appreciate the Senate Committee acknowledging the significant role alternative liquid fuels could play in reducing the carbon intensity of the transportation sector and our reliance on petroleum, as well as the need for new policy tools like a Low Carbon Fuel Standard due to improper implementation of the RFS in recent years.”
A full copy of the report can be downloaded Senate Democrats Climate Committee’s website.
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Aug 21, 2020
The agency has received another nine new small refinery exemption requests for previous years, along with three new current waiver petitions for 2019-2020. The prior year petitions include one each for 2011 and 2012, two each for the years 2013 through 2015, and a new one for 2016. That brings the total requests for so-called “gap year” waivers to 67 – all of which have been filed since the 10th Circuit Court decision in January which struck down a set of waivers granted because they were not direct extensions of ones previously granted, as required by law.
Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) president and CEO Geoff Cooper says it is past time for President Trump to intervene. “As more and more waiver requests pile up, we are again asking the President to ensure EPA immediately adopts the recent Tenth Circuit court decision nationwide and rejects these nonsensical gap-year petitions, Cooper said. “The Saudi-Russia oil price war, COVID pandemic, ongoing trade war, and now a historic derecho have already taken a devastating toll on our markets, and faithful enforcement of the Renewable Fuel Standard is more important now than ever before.”
“This week in Iowa, President Trump promised to personally speak with EPA about these absurd gap-year waivers and the impact they are having on ethanol producers and the farm economy. That conversation can’t happen soon enough, as pending petitions are now closing in on the century mark,” said Cooper.
It was during a briefing in Iowa on Tuesday that Sen. Joni Ernst asked President Trump to talk with EPA about the issue and request they follow the intent of the law with the Renewable Fuel Standard. “We’ll speak to them,” said the president. “I’ll do it myself.”
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Aug 19, 2020
U.S. ethanol production increased by nearly 1 percent the week ending Aug. 14, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Aug. 19. Weekly ending stocks of fuel ethanol were up nearly 3 percent.
U.S. ethanol production averaged 926,000 barrels per day the week ending Aug. 14, up from 918,000 barrels per day the previous week. Production seems to have stabilized in recent weeks after falling to historic lows last spring due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
EIA data shows U.S. ethanol production hit a low of 537,000 barrels per day the week ending April 24. Production trended upward in May and June as travel restrictions associated with the pandemic began to ease and fuel demand increased. Production levels since July have generally stabilized in the range of 900,000 to 950,000 barrels per day, down roughly 10 percent when compared to the same period of last year.
Ethanol production was down 97,000 barrels per day when compared to the same week of last year, and down 153,000 barrels per day when compared to the final week of February, before COVID-19 began to impact fuel markets.
Weekly ending stocks for fuel ethanol increased to 20.27 million barrels the week ending Aug. 14, up from 19.75 million barrels the previous week. Stocks of fuel ethanol have fallen significantly over the past few months after reaching a record high of 27.689 million barrels the week ending April 17. When compared to the same week of last year, ethanol stocks were down 3.097 million barrels.
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Aug 18, 2020
Leaders of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, Iowa Soybean Association, Iowa Renewable Fuels Association and Iowa Biodiesel Board published an open letter to President Trump on Aug. 18 expressing the need for robust and stable markets for crops and biofuels.
The letter coincided with Trump’s Aug. 18 visit to Iowa to discuss damage caused by a historic “derecho” windstorm the previous week that may have impacted up to 14 million acres of Iowa’s crops.
“On behalf of Iowa’s farmers and biofuel producers, we want to thank you for visiting Iowa during this very trying time,” the groups wrote. “The loss of key export markets, abuse of Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) refinery exemptions by the EPA, and the economic downturn resulting from COVID-19 have combined to stretch rural Iowa to its limit.”
While the groups said they appreciate the expedited approval of needed disaster aid, they stressed “rural Iowa will not complete the long road back to normal without robust and stable markets for our crops and biofuels.”
“So we write today beseeching you to fulfill your promise to protect the RFS and to implement the program at statutory levels,” they continued. “One senior White House official has even told us that the 15-billion-gallon conventional level for the RFS was ‘biblical’ to you. Yet, the fact of the matter is that the RFS has not actually been enforced at the statutory levels during the four years of your presidency.”
The letter stresses that the EPA has already undermined the RFS by granting dozens of illegal small refinery exemptions (SREs), which have destroyed demand for more than 4 billion gallons of biofuels, and in turn destroys markets for Iowa corn and soybean crops.
“Now, the EPA is considering a plan to double-down on efforts to undermine the RFS with retroactive handouts that would allow multi-billion-dollar oil companies to claim ‘hardship’ exemptions from obligations dating as far back as 2011,” the groups wrote. “These retroactive handouts are designed to sidestep a January 2020 court ruling curtailing EPA’s abuse of RFS exemption provisions.
“Mr. President, you have the power to immediately end the frustration of farmers related to biofuels and to remove all doubt of your commitment to the RFS,” they continued. “Please order EPA Administrator Wheeler to reject all of the nearly 60 new, baseless RFS exemption petitions and to apply the 10th Circuit decision to all pending RFS refinery exemption requests. Uphold the integrity of the law by enforcing that 15 billion gallons of corn-ethanol means corn ethanol or remove the cap for corn all together so that farmers have access to the market for clean-burning homegrown fuels.
“Make no mistake, we often hear from farmers: ‘If we can’t trust the Trump Administration to do the right thing before the election, then why on Earth would we expect them to treat us fairly after the election?’ Many rural voters are waiting to see if you will uphold the RFS and your promise before the election. Iowa may very well hang in the balance.”
The letter concludes by urging Trump to immediately direct the EPA to reject all gal year SRE petitions and apply the Tenth Circuit Court of Appeal’s decision to all SRE petitions going forward.
A full copy of the letter is available on the IRFAwebsite.
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Aug 17, 2020
The Biogenic CO2 Coalition today released ascientific literature reviewconducted by Seungdo Kim, a leading researcher at Michigan State University, that surveyed peer-reviewed journal articles from all over the world. The review confirms biogenic CO2 emissions from annual agriculture crops do not contribute to elevated greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.
Of the 108 articles related to ag-based biogenic emissions and greenhouse gas accounting published since 2010 that were found in the literature review, an overwhelming 104 articles show biogenic CO2 emissions from agriculture crops “are completely balanced by biomass regrowth over a short period of time.” This finding supports the long-held position of the Coalition that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) should issue a rulemaking clarifying the de minimis nature of those emissions. The scientific literature review used the Web of Science database, which accesses more than 8,500 academic scientific journals.
Additionally, the analysis by Kim identified multiple accounting methodologies that are applied to biogenic carbon emissions. Regardless of the approach used, the research reveals that the emissions from agriculture crops do not contribute to additional CO2 in the atmosphere. The review was commissioned by the Biogenic CO2 Coalition.
“Dr. Kim’s study further confirms that science from all around the world shows thede minimisnature of emissions from the use of annual agriculture crops. EPA is the only regulatory body in the world to treat agricultural crops and fossil fuels the same and this unfair regulatory barrier has limited the potential of America’s heartland for far too long,” said Thomas Parks, spokesperson for the Biogenic CO2 Coalition. “It’s time the EPA followed sound science and cleared this regulatory barrier to benefit rural America and the U.S. bioeconomy.”
This study aligns with the scientific consensus regarding CO2 emissions from annual agricultural feedstocks. A group of 21 leading scientistsrecently wrotea letter to the EPA asserting that is it imperative the Agency act swiftly to adopt a rule that recognizes thede minimis character of emissions from annual crops.
By following sound science and promulgating such a rule, EPA has a unique opportunity to spur investments in rural economies, drive the creation of green jobs, and enable American farmers and businesses to fairly compete in the international marketplace for renewable products.
Members of Congress also agree the EPA needs to provide regulatory clarity for annual farm crops. Reps. Rodney Davis, R-IL.; Collin Peterson, D-Minn.; Dave Loebsack, D-Iowa; and Roger Marshall, R-Kan., recentlysent a letterto EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler requesting regulatory clarity for annual farm crops.
Last year, a bipartisan group of 18 Senators alsopressed the EPAfor swift action on this issue in a letter. A group of five Governors have alsourged the agencyfor action on the same issue.
The Biogenic CO2 Coalition has been calling for the fair, science-based treatment of these crops. The Coalition recently announced anew video and digital ad campaignurging EPA to unleash the U.S. bioeconomy and rural industries by recognizing the de minimis character of carbon emissions from common agricultural crops.
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Aug 13, 2020
A group of six former U.S. EPA administrators representing both republican and democratic administrations are calling for a “reset” of the agency as it approaches its 50th anniversary. The Renewable Fuel Standard and a potential federal Low Carbon Fuel Standard among the issues discussed in a report released on the effort.
The former EPA administrators, including Lee Thomas, William Reilly, Carol Browner, Christine Todd Whitman, Lisa Jackson and Gina McCarthy, are backing a plan published by the Environmental Protection Network, a bipartisan group launched in 2017 that includes hundreds of former EPA staff.
The report, titled “Resetting the Course of the EPA,” outlines specific and actionable steps that the group said EPA can take to reset the course of the agency to address the most significant and pervasive threats to public health and the environment.
The group names six priorities it says are critical to creating a renewed EPA. Those priorities include:
- EPA must reaffirm its commitment to fully protect public health and the environment.
- EPA must conduct its scientific and economic analysis free from political interference.
- EPA must incorporate environmental justice in every aspect of its work in order to address and resolve inequitable environmental conditions.
- EPA must focus on the most significant and pervasive public health and environmental risks, prioritizing actions that provide the greatest health benefit for the greatest number of people, including vulnerable populations.
- EPA must innovate and collaborate with states, tribes, local governments, and federal agencies as coregulators, as well as with stakeholders, including the private and non-profit sectors and community groups, to build an effective and resilient system of public health and environmental protections.
- EPA must earn and maintain broad public trust by demonstrating the best ethical behavior, transparently considering all stakeholder viewpoints, and providing objective environmental information.
One of the many recommendations released by the group focuses specifically on reducing air emissions from mobile sources. Under that recommendation, the Environmental Protection Network calls on the EPA to closely examine the RFS program and consider potential changes to increase greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions from renewable fuels. In addition, the group recommends the EPA evaluate the adoption of a federal LCFS under the Clean Air Act, including close examination of potential interactions with other federal and state programs. The recommendation notes that a federal LCFS could preempt state LCFS programs, and EPA should consider the pros and cons of additional state LCFSs. The recommendation also specifies that under the CAA, a federal LCFS would be in addition to—and not a substitute for—the RFS. The group also said the EPA should consider what cost-effective reductions could be achieved under a LCFS incremental to the RFS.
Additional information is available on the Environmental Protection Network website.
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Aug 12, 2020
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2020-’21 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report, released on Aug. 12. Projections for corn production and yield were revised up, while corn prices were revised down.
The USDA said the 2020-’21 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.3 billion bushels, up 278 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 181.8 bushels per acre, is 3.3 bushels higher than last month’s trend-based projection.
Within the WASDE report, the USDA cited a Aug. 12 Crop Production report that shows Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio are forecast to have yields above a year ago, with record-high yields expected for Minnesota and South Dakota.
Feed and residual use is raised based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected prices.
An estimated 5.2 billion bushels of corn is expected to go to ethanol production in 2020-’21, up from an estimated 4.85 billion bushels in 2019-’20, but down from 5.378 billion in 2018-’19.
Exports are higher reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and relatively low world market prices. With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are raised 108 million bushels to 2.8 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 25 cents to $3.10 per bushel.
Internationally, EU corn production is lowered, mostly reflecting reductions for Romania and France that are partially offset by increases for several countries, including Poland, Italy, and Hungary. Ukraine corn production is forecast higher, largely reflecting higher expected area. Other notable corn production changes include projected increases for Mozambique and Malawi, with reductions for Canada and Thailand.
Corn imports are raised for the EU, Canada and Thailand, but reduced for India. Foreign corn ending stocks are slightly lower relative last month, reflecting an increase for Indonesia that is more than offset by declines for Canada and India.
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Aug 11, 2020
The U.S. Energy Information Administration slightly increased its forecasts for 2020 and 2021 ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, which was released Aug. 11. Forecasts for ethanol blending were also revised up.
The EIA currently predicts ethanol production will average 910,000 barrels per day this year, up from the 900,000-barrel-per-day prediction made in the agency’s July STEO. The EIA has also increased its forecast for 2021 ethanol production to an average of 1.01 million barrels per day, up from its July prediction of 1 million barrels per day. Production averaged approximately 1.03 million barrels per day in 2019.
On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is expected to average 930,000 barrels per day during the third quarter of this year, increasing to 970,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. EIA data shows ethanol production averaged 1.02 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2020, falling to 710,000 barrels per day during the second quarter. In 2021, ethanol production is expected to average 1 million barrels per day during the first quarter, 1.01 million barrels per day during the second quarter, and 1.02 million barrels per day in the third and fourth quarters.
The EIA currently expects the U.S. to blend 840,000 barrels per day of ethanol this year, up from the July prediction of 836,000. Blending in 2021 is expected to average 930,000 barrels per day, up from the 919,000-barrel-per-day prediction made in July. Ethanol blending averaged 950,000 barrels per day in 2019.
The EIA’s most recently weekly ethanol data shows production averaged 931,000 barrels per day the week ending July 31, down from 958,000 barrels per day the previous week. Ethanol stocks were at 20.346 million barrels the week ending July 31, up form 20.272 million barrels the previous week.
The agency’s most recent monthly data shows the U.S. imported 255,000 barrels of ethanol in March, all from Brazil. The U.S. exported 1.622 million barrels of ethanol in May, primarily to India, Canada and Mexico.
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Aug 5, 2020
U.S. ethanol exports were 78.5 million gallons (mg) in June, an 11.0 mg increase (up 16%). Sales across our northern border returned to pre-COVID levels, as Canada purchased 27.4 mg (up 89% from May), regaining its status as our largest export market. However, sales to India slipped 15% in June to 12.6 mg, and exports to Mexico eased 1% to 9.0 mg. Other sizable customers of U.S. ethanol included Finland (7.8 mg), South Korea (4.6 mg), the Netherlands (3.4 mg), and Jamaica (3.0 mg), while Brazil was nearly absent. Exports over the first half of the year were 730.7 mg.
U.S. undenatured fuel ethanol shipments in June dropped 58% to 12.4 mg—the lowest volume since September 2018—with India’s departure from the market responsible for the bulk of that dip. However, exports increased by 9% to Mexico, reaching 7.3 mg (representing roughly 60% of U.S. global sales). Jamaica (2.7 mg) and Switzerland (1.8 mg) also purchased significant volumes of American-made undenatured fuel ethanol.
Sales of U.S. denatured fuel ethanol nearly doubled in June to a three-month high of 54.1 mg. Shipments to chief customer Canada rose 11.8 mg to 23.8 mg (accounting for 44% of total exported product). Other large markets were India (9.3 mg), Finland (7.8 mg), South Korea (4.4 mg), the Netherlands (3.4 mg), and Peru (2.7 mg).
Exports of U.S. ethanol for non-fuel, non-beverage purposes grew 25% to 12.0 mg. India (3.3 mg), Canada (3.3 mg), Nigeria (2.3 mg), and Mexico (1.6 mg) were our largest customers.
The U.S. imported 10.5 mg of cane ethanol from Brazil, the first shipments since March. Imports totaled 46.5 mg during the first half of the year.
U.S. exports of dried distillers grains (DDGs)—the animal feed co-product generated by dry-mill ethanol plants—shot up 47% to 883,193 metric tons (mt). Thailand became our largest market for the first time with a record purchase of 208,456 mt, or nearly a quarter of June U.S. DDGs export sales. Mexico reduced imports by 18% to a five-year low of 97,873 mt, while sales were robust in Vietnam (94,277 mt, +38%), Turkey (86,925 mt, +82%), South Korea (69,231 mt, +33%), and Indonesia (56,780 mt, -10%). Worldwide U.S. DDGs exports for the first half of 2020 were 4.98 million mt.
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Aug 4, 2020
The U.S. Department of Energy has recommended that some of the oil refiners that applied for retroactive exemptions from the nation’s biofuel blending law be granted partial relief, two sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
The move could help bring those refining companies into compliance with a court ruling earlier this year that requires waivers granted since 2010 to take the form of an extension - the latest twist in a long-running battle between the refining and biofuel industries over the program.
At present there are 58 pending requests from refiners for waivers covering the years 2011 through 2018, according to government data. The sources said the DOE recommended to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, which has final say on the waivers, that “a number” of those requests be partially granted. The sources, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly, could not immediately provide further details.
“EPA has received initial feedback from the Department of Energy on certain petitions for small refinery exemptions for past compliance years under the Renewable Fuel Standards Program,” EPA spokesperson Molly Block said. “Our staff is reviewing.”
DOE did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), oil refiners must blend billions of gallons of biofuels into their fuel, or buy credits from those that do. Small refiners that prove the rules would financially harm them can apply for exemptions.
In January, the Denver-based 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that waivers granted to small refineries after 2010 had to take the form of an “extension.” Most recipients of waivers in recent years have not continuously received them.
Biofuel advocates say blending waivers hurt demand for corn-based ethanol. The oil industry disputes that, and says blending requirements are too expensive.
The EPA has 90 days to act once it receives a petition, according to EPA guidelines.
Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst, both from Iowa, the top ethanol-producing state, sent a letter to DOE on Tuesday asking for further details on the recommendations and expressing opposition to the waivers.
The senators had earlier in the day voted against the confirmation of Mark Menezes as Deputy Secretary of Energy as a protest, but failed to block his confirmation.
“We could not in good faith support Mr. Menezes at this time,” Grassley and Ernst said in a statement.
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Aug 3, 2020
ST. LOUIS — The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit's ruling early this year that struck down three Small Refinery Exemptions improperly issued by the Environmental Protection Agency hasn’t deterred companies from filing more requests.
Geoff Cooper, Renewable Fuels Association president and CEO, said there are currently 52 “gap year” exemption requests for 2011 to 2018 and another 28 requests for 2019 and 2020 that have yet to be ruled on by the EPA.
Under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, oil refineries are required to blend billions of gallons of biofuels such as ethanol into their fuel or buy credits from those that do. The EPA can waive those obligations if they prove compliance would cause them financial distress.
EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said earlier this month the SRE petitions that were received from companies for previous years have been forwarded to the Department of Energy for review — the first step in the process.
“We’ve not gotten recommendations back from Department of Energy yet. Some of these petitions go back to 2012 and the (Renewable Identification Numbers) from that year are no longer active and have expired, so there’re questions about whether or not they can show economic harm and what the remedy would be. We’re waiting to see what the Department of Energy has to say about those small refinery exemptions,” Wheeler said.
Cooper addressed this and other challenges the renewable fuel industry is facing during a recent podcast.
What are you hearing from the EPA regarding the pending SRE requests?
One of the big unresolved issues is what the EPA is going to do with these small refinery exemptions. It has been six months since the 10th Circuit Court struck down three of those exemptions that EPA illegally granted and set a precedent that should significantly limit or constrain EPA’s ability to give these exemptions to refiners moving forward.
So, rather than taking that decision and adopting it nationally and just moving ahead, EPA is kind of twiddling its thumbs and still hasn’t told anybody what it intends to do with these exemption requests and with this court decision. All they’ve said is the refiners may appeal this to the Supreme Court and so sort of need to wait until the Supreme Court decides whether they want to hear this case or not.
The chances of the Supreme Court showing any interest in reviewing this case are slim to zero, yet that’s the excuse that EPA is using. So, we have 52 new gap year exemption requests where refiners are looking for exemptions for past years going all the way back to 2011 and the scheme there is to get these exemptions as a way of circumventing the 10th Circuit Court decision so they can remain eligible to get more waivers moving forward.
So, we’re looking at another 80 SRE exemption petitions that are sitting at EPA or soon to be at EPA that haven’t been decided. That’s one big unresolved issue that is creating enormous uncertainty in the marketplace.
The ethanol industry also awaits EPA to announce the Renewable Volume Obligations under the RFS for 2021. The ruling for 2020 was made on July 5, 2019, and appears to be put on indefinite hold by EPA for next year.
Uncertainty reins around the RFS program and if there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years, no one in the marketplace likes uncertainty. That’s true whether we’re talking about ethanol and biodiesel producers or whether we’re talking about the obligated parties, the refiners that are obligated to blend renewable fuels.
We are just in a cloud of confusion around the RFS right now because EPA is not making decisions and just seems to want to kick the can down the road on just about all of these important decisions.
We’re waiting for EPA to make several very important decisions about the RFS, four or five major issues that need some resolutions here very soon. And we’re growing more and more worried that EPA is just trying to drop back and punt on these decisions and wait until after the election. They want to delay any decisions that are going to be controversial or decisive.
We know the industry is being intimidated and pushed around by the oil refiners and so it seems like their solution right now is just to throw up their hands and do nothing. That’s just not an acceptable solution.
EPA has laws that it needs to follow and it has statutory deadlines that it needs to meet, so it is time to move forward on these unresolved RFS issues and give the industry some answers.
All of this is happening a time when the ethanol industry tries to recover from major production reductions from lower demand at the onset of the pandemic and stay-at-home requests. How is the ethanol industry doing at this point?
At the low point in April, more than half of the industry’s capacity was idled. We had more than 100 facilities that had either completely shutdown or had significantly reduced output rate. So, at the apex of this thing it was a bloodbath for the industry. We saw deeply negative margins.
We had one-half the industry’s capacity offline. We lost billions of dollars in sales revenues. In the weeks since then, we have seen incremental recovery and a rebound of sorts, but the industry still has a long way to go. We are still operating 15% below levels of a year ago and it appears that things have kind of plateaued and we’re not expecting to get back to that sort of pre-COVID market dynamic any time soon.
We still have a number of facilities that are idled. We still have a number of facilities that are running at less than full capacity. The margin structure has improved but it’s still not great when viewed in historical terms. So, it remains a very challenging market environment.
We came into this year expecting to produce something around 16 billon gallons. We know that number is going to be closer to 13.5 billion gallons. So, when you think about the lost revenue associated with that big drop in production and, at the same time, we have lower ethanol prices, the financial hit to the industry is enormous.
We originally estimated something around a possible $10 billion loss to the industry. As we take a fresh look at some those numbers, we think that was a pretty good estimate. It looks like we’re on track if things play out the way we think they will, to see an $8 billion to $10 billion loss for the industry this year.
Now we’re looking at the possibility of another round of stay-at-home orders in the late summer and fall. What happens to some of these estimates and predictions if we do have states like Texas, California and Florida going through another round of stay-at-home orders? It just adds more uncertainty and more cloudiness to the recovery. It’s another reason our industry continues to seek some assistance and help from Congress as they begin to think about a fourth stimulus package.
We remain confident that biofuels and ethanol specifically will not be left behind this time as we had been in the previous stimulus packages but we’ve got to stay vigilant and continue to make our case to Congress.
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Jul 31, 2020
The Renewable Fuels Association this week responded to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s request for comment on its Agriculture Innovation Agenda (AIA). Regarding renewable fuels, the agenda calls for Increased biofuel feedstock production and biofuel production efficiency and competitiveness to achieve market-driven blend rates of E15 in 2030 and E30 in 2050.
“Not only will the AIA initiative’s Renewable Energy benchmarks, if achieved, stimulate long-term economic growth in rural America, they will also enhance sustainability, improve environmental quality, and provide lower costs and greater consumer choice at the pump,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “The AIA’s Renewable Energy goals are proactive and ambitious, and the USDA should be applauded for undertaking such a forward-looking initiative that provides clear benefits to American consumers.”
RFA’s response identified the following five opportunities for the industry:
- Increasing productivity in crops and ethanol to meet volume requirements sustainably
- Stimulating more demand and reducing more emissions from the current RFS policy
- Facilitating greater demand from future policy
- Continuing USDA infrastructure investments to expand biofuel deployment and sell higher blends
- Adopting carbon capture, sequestration and utilization technologies
In addition, the association identified several roadblocks that need to be addressed by the federal government. This includes providing RVP (Reid Vapor Pressure) parity for all ethanol blends, removing or significantly revising E15 fuel survey requirements and labeling requirements, revising EPA’s outdated lifecycle greenhouse gas analysis of corn ethanol, and eliminating unnecessary registration and pathway certification barriers to cellulosic ethanol production from corn kernel fiber.
“RFA has worked had to build a bold, sustainability-driven vision for the future of agriculture and transportation, and through our membership, we have positioned ourselves to lead that effort as advocates,” Cooper said. “On behalf of the nation’s ethanol producers, we are fully committed to collaborating with USDA to sustainably increase the production and availability of renewable fuels to achieve nationwide average blend rates of E15 in 2030 and E30 in 2050.”
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