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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Aug 13, 2020

A group of six former U.S. EPA administrators representing both republican and democratic administrations are calling for a “reset” of the agency as it approaches its 50th anniversary. The Renewable Fuel Standard and a potential federal Low Carbon Fuel Standard among the issues discussed in a report released on the effort.

The former EPA administrators, including Lee Thomas, William Reilly, Carol Browner, Christine Todd Whitman, Lisa Jackson and Gina McCarthy, are backing a plan published by the Environmental Protection Network, a bipartisan group launched in 2017 that includes hundreds of former EPA staff.

The report, titled “Resetting the Course of the EPA,” outlines specific and actionable steps that the group said EPA can take to reset the course of the agency to address the most significant and pervasive threats to public health and the environment.

The group names six priorities it says are critical to creating a renewed EPA. Those priorities include:

  • EPA must reaffirm its commitment to fully protect public health and the environment.
  • EPA must conduct its scientific and economic analysis free from political interference.
  • EPA must incorporate environmental justice in every aspect of its work in order to address and resolve inequitable environmental conditions.
  • EPA must focus on the most significant and pervasive public health and environmental risks, prioritizing actions that provide the greatest health benefit for the greatest number of people, including vulnerable populations.
  • EPA must innovate and collaborate with states, tribes, local governments, and federal agencies as coregulators, as well as with stakeholders, including the private and non-profit sectors and community groups, to build an effective and resilient system of public health and environmental protections.
  • EPA must earn and maintain broad public trust by demonstrating the best ethical behavior, transparently considering all stakeholder viewpoints, and providing objective environmental information.

One of the many recommendations released by the group focuses specifically on reducing air emissions from mobile sources. Under that recommendation, the Environmental Protection Network calls on the EPA to closely examine the RFS program and consider potential changes to increase greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions from renewable fuels. In addition, the group recommends the EPA evaluate the adoption of a federal LCFS under the Clean Air Act, including close examination of potential interactions with other federal and state programs. The recommendation notes that a federal LCFS could preempt state LCFS programs, and EPA should consider the pros and cons of additional state LCFSs. The recommendation also specifies that under the CAA, a federal LCFS would be in addition to—and not a substitute for—the RFS. The group also said the EPA should consider what cost-effective reductions could be achieved under a LCFS incremental to the RFS.

Additional information is available on the Environmental Protection Network website.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Aug 12, 2020

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2020-’21 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report, released on Aug. 12. Projections for corn production and yield were revised up, while corn prices were revised down.

The USDA said the 2020-’21 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.3 billion bushels, up 278 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 181.8 bushels per acre, is 3.3 bushels higher than last month’s trend-based projection.

Within the WASDE report, the USDA cited a Aug. 12 Crop Production report that shows Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio are forecast to have yields above a year ago, with record-high yields expected for Minnesota and South Dakota.

Feed and residual use is raised based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected prices.

An estimated 5.2 billion bushels of corn is expected to go to ethanol production in 2020-’21, up from an estimated 4.85 billion bushels in 2019-’20, but down from 5.378 billion in 2018-’19.

Exports are higher reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and relatively low world market prices. With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are raised 108 million bushels to 2.8 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 25 cents to $3.10 per bushel.

Internationally, EU corn production is lowered, mostly reflecting reductions for Romania and France that are partially offset by increases for several countries, including Poland, Italy, and Hungary. Ukraine corn production is forecast higher, largely reflecting higher expected area. Other notable corn production changes include projected increases for Mozambique and Malawi, with reductions for Canada and Thailand.

Corn imports are raised for the EU, Canada and Thailand, but reduced for India. Foreign corn ending stocks are slightly lower relative last month, reflecting an increase for Indonesia that is more than offset by declines for Canada and India.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Aug 11, 2020

The U.S. Energy Information Administration slightly increased its forecasts for 2020 and 2021 ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, which was released Aug. 11. Forecasts for ethanol blending were also revised up.

The EIA currently predicts ethanol production will average 910,000 barrels per day this year, up from the 900,000-barrel-per-day prediction made in the agency’s July STEO. The EIA has also increased its forecast for 2021 ethanol production to an average of 1.01 million barrels per day, up from its July prediction of 1 million barrels per day. Production averaged approximately 1.03 million barrels per day in 2019.

On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is expected to average 930,000 barrels per day during the third quarter of this year, increasing to 970,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. EIA data shows ethanol production averaged 1.02 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2020, falling to 710,000 barrels per day during the second quarter. In 2021, ethanol production is expected to average 1 million barrels per day during the first quarter, 1.01 million barrels per day during the second quarter, and 1.02 million barrels per day in the third and fourth quarters.

The EIA currently expects the U.S. to blend 840,000 barrels per day of ethanol this year, up from the July prediction of 836,000. Blending in 2021 is expected to average 930,000 barrels per day, up from the 919,000-barrel-per-day prediction made in July. Ethanol blending averaged 950,000 barrels per day in 2019.

The EIA’s most recently weekly ethanol data shows production averaged 931,000 barrels per day the week ending July 31, down from 958,000 barrels per day the previous week. Ethanol stocks were at 20.346 million barrels the week ending July 31, up form 20.272 million barrels the previous week.

The agency’s most recent monthly data shows the U.S. imported 255,000 barrels of ethanol in March, all from Brazil. The U.S. exported 1.622 million barrels of ethanol in May, primarily to India, Canada and Mexico.

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Renewable Fuels Association

Aug 5, 2020

U.S. ethanol exports were 78.5 million gallons (mg) in June, an 11.0 mg increase (up 16%). Sales across our northern border returned to pre-COVID levels, as Canada purchased 27.4 mg (up 89% from May), regaining its status as our largest export market. However, sales to India slipped 15% in June to 12.6 mg, and exports to Mexico eased 1% to 9.0 mg. Other sizable customers of U.S. ethanol included Finland (7.8 mg), South Korea (4.6 mg), the Netherlands (3.4 mg), and Jamaica (3.0 mg), while Brazil was nearly absent. Exports over the first half of the year were 730.7 mg.

U.S. undenatured fuel ethanol shipments in June dropped 58% to 12.4 mg—the lowest volume since September 2018—with India’s departure from the market responsible for the bulk of that dip. However, exports increased by 9% to Mexico, reaching 7.3 mg (representing roughly 60% of U.S. global sales). Jamaica (2.7 mg) and Switzerland (1.8 mg) also purchased significant volumes of American-made undenatured fuel ethanol.

Sales of U.S. denatured fuel ethanol nearly doubled in June to a three-month high of 54.1 mg. Shipments to chief customer Canada rose 11.8 mg to 23.8 mg (accounting for 44% of total exported product). Other large markets were India (9.3 mg), Finland (7.8 mg), South Korea (4.4 mg), the Netherlands (3.4 mg), and Peru (2.7 mg).

Exports of U.S. ethanol for non-fuel, non-beverage purposes grew 25% to 12.0 mg. India (3.3 mg), Canada (3.3 mg), Nigeria (2.3 mg), and Mexico (1.6 mg) were our largest customers.

The U.S. imported 10.5 mg of cane ethanol from Brazil, the first shipments since March. Imports totaled 46.5 mg during the first half of the year.

U.S. exports of dried distillers grains (DDGs)—the animal feed co-product generated by dry-mill ethanol plants—shot up 47% to 883,193 metric tons (mt). Thailand became our largest market for the first time with a record purchase of 208,456 mt, or nearly a quarter of June U.S. DDGs export sales. Mexico reduced imports by 18% to a five-year low of 97,873 mt, while sales were robust in Vietnam (94,277 mt, +38%), Turkey (86,925 mt, +82%), South Korea (69,231 mt, +33%), and Indonesia (56,780 mt, -10%). Worldwide U.S. DDGs exports for the first half of 2020 were 4.98 million mt.

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Reuters

Aug 4, 2020

The U.S. Department of Energy has recommended that some of the oil refiners that applied for retroactive exemptions from the nation’s biofuel blending law be granted partial relief, two sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday. 

The move could help bring those refining companies into compliance with a court ruling earlier this year that requires waivers granted since 2010 to take the form of an extension - the latest twist in a long-running battle between the refining and biofuel industries over the program. 

At present there are 58 pending requests from refiners for waivers covering the years 2011 through 2018, according to government data. The sources said the DOE recommended to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, which has final say on the waivers, that “a number” of those requests be partially granted. The sources, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly, could not immediately provide further details. 

“EPA has received initial feedback from the Department of Energy on certain petitions for small refinery exemptions for past compliance years under the Renewable Fuel Standards Program,” EPA spokesperson Molly Block said. “Our staff is reviewing.” 

DOE did not immediately respond to requests for comment. 

Under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), oil refiners must blend billions of gallons of biofuels into their fuel, or buy credits from those that do. Small refiners that prove the rules would financially harm them can apply for exemptions. 

In January, the Denver-based 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that waivers granted to small refineries after 2010 had to take the form of an “extension.” Most recipients of waivers in recent years have not continuously received them. 

Biofuel advocates say blending waivers hurt demand for corn-based ethanol. The oil industry disputes that, and says blending requirements are too expensive. 

The EPA has 90 days to act once it receives a petition, according to EPA guidelines. 

Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst, both from Iowa, the top ethanol-producing state, sent a letter to DOE on Tuesday asking for further details on the recommendations and expressing opposition to the waivers. 

The senators had earlier in the day voted against the confirmation of Mark Menezes as Deputy Secretary of Energy as a protest, but failed to block his confirmation. 

“We could not in good faith support Mr. Menezes at this time,” Grassley and Ernst said in a statement.

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AgriNews

Aug 3, 2020

ST. LOUIS — The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit's ruling early this year that struck down three Small Refinery Exemptions improperly issued by the Environmental Protection Agency hasn’t deterred companies from filing more requests.

Geoff Cooper, Renewable Fuels Association president and CEO, said there are currently 52 “gap year” exemption requests for 2011 to 2018 and another 28 requests for 2019 and 2020 that have yet to be ruled on by the EPA.

Under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, oil refineries are required to blend billions of gallons of biofuels such as ethanol into their fuel or buy credits from those that do. The EPA can waive those obligations if they prove compliance would cause them financial distress.

EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler said earlier this month the SRE petitions that were received from companies for previous years have been forwarded to the Department of Energy for review — the first step in the process.

“We’ve not gotten recommendations back from Department of Energy yet. Some of these petitions go back to 2012 and the (Renewable Identification Numbers) from that year are no longer active and have expired, so there’re questions about whether or not they can show economic harm and what the remedy would be. We’re waiting to see what the Department of Energy has to say about those small refinery exemptions,” Wheeler said.

Cooper addressed this and other challenges the renewable fuel industry is facing during a recent podcast.

What are you hearing from the EPA regarding the pending SRE requests?

One of the big unresolved issues is what the EPA is going to do with these small refinery exemptions. It has been six months since the 10th Circuit Court struck down three of those exemptions that EPA illegally granted and set a precedent that should significantly limit or constrain EPA’s ability to give these exemptions to refiners moving forward.

So, rather than taking that decision and adopting it nationally and just moving ahead, EPA is kind of twiddling its thumbs and still hasn’t told anybody what it intends to do with these exemption requests and with this court decision. All they’ve said is the refiners may appeal this to the Supreme Court and so sort of need to wait until the Supreme Court decides whether they want to hear this case or not.

The chances of the Supreme Court showing any interest in reviewing this case are slim to zero, yet that’s the excuse that EPA is using. So, we have 52 new gap year exemption requests where refiners are looking for exemptions for past years going all the way back to 2011 and the scheme there is to get these exemptions as a way of circumventing the 10th Circuit Court decision so they can remain eligible to get more waivers moving forward.

So, we’re looking at another 80 SRE exemption petitions that are sitting at EPA or soon to be at EPA that haven’t been decided. That’s one big unresolved issue that is creating enormous uncertainty in the marketplace.

The ethanol industry also awaits EPA to announce the Renewable Volume Obligations under the RFS for 2021. The ruling for 2020 was made on July 5, 2019, and appears to be put on indefinite hold by EPA for next year.

Uncertainty reins around the RFS program and if there’s one thing we’ve learned over the years, no one in the marketplace likes uncertainty. That’s true whether we’re talking about ethanol and biodiesel producers or whether we’re talking about the obligated parties, the refiners that are obligated to blend renewable fuels.

We are just in a cloud of confusion around the RFS right now because EPA is not making decisions and just seems to want to kick the can down the road on just about all of these important decisions.

We’re waiting for EPA to make several very important decisions about the RFS, four or five major issues that need some resolutions here very soon. And we’re growing more and more worried that EPA is just trying to drop back and punt on these decisions and wait until after the election. They want to delay any decisions that are going to be controversial or decisive.

We know the industry is being intimidated and pushed around by the oil refiners and so it seems like their solution right now is just to throw up their hands and do nothing. That’s just not an acceptable solution.

EPA has laws that it needs to follow and it has statutory deadlines that it needs to meet, so it is time to move forward on these unresolved RFS issues and give the industry some answers.

All of this is happening a time when the ethanol industry tries to recover from major production reductions from lower demand at the onset of the pandemic and stay-at-home requests. How is the ethanol industry doing at this point?

At the low point in April, more than half of the industry’s capacity was idled. We had more than 100 facilities that had either completely shutdown or had significantly reduced output rate. So, at the apex of this thing it was a bloodbath for the industry. We saw deeply negative margins.

We had one-half the industry’s capacity offline. We lost billions of dollars in sales revenues. In the weeks since then, we have seen incremental recovery and a rebound of sorts, but the industry still has a long way to go. We are still operating 15% below levels of a year ago and it appears that things have kind of plateaued and we’re not expecting to get back to that sort of pre-COVID market dynamic any time soon.

We still have a number of facilities that are idled. We still have a number of facilities that are running at less than full capacity. The margin structure has improved but it’s still not great when viewed in historical terms. So, it remains a very challenging market environment.

We came into this year expecting to produce something around 16 billon gallons. We know that number is going to be closer to 13.5 billion gallons. So, when you think about the lost revenue associated with that big drop in production and, at the same time, we have lower ethanol prices, the financial hit to the industry is enormous.

We originally estimated something around a possible $10 billion loss to the industry. As we take a fresh look at some those numbers, we think that was a pretty good estimate. It looks like we’re on track if things play out the way we think they will, to see an $8 billion to $10 billion loss for the industry this year.

Now we’re looking at the possibility of another round of stay-at-home orders in the late summer and fall. What happens to some of these estimates and predictions if we do have states like Texas, California and Florida going through another round of stay-at-home orders? It just adds more uncertainty and more cloudiness to the recovery. It’s another reason our industry continues to seek some assistance and help from Congress as they begin to think about a fourth stimulus package.

We remain confident that biofuels and ethanol specifically will not be left behind this time as we had been in the previous stimulus packages but we’ve got to stay vigilant and continue to make our case to Congress.

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Renewable Fuels Association

Jul 31, 2020

The Renewable Fuels Association this week responded to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s request for comment on its Agriculture Innovation Agenda (AIA). Regarding renewable fuels, the agenda calls for Increased biofuel feedstock production and biofuel production efficiency and competitiveness to achieve market-driven blend rates of E15 in 2030 and E30 in 2050.

“Not only will the AIA initiative’s Renewable Energy benchmarks, if achieved, stimulate long-term economic growth in rural America, they will also enhance sustainability, improve environmental quality, and provide lower costs and greater consumer choice at the pump,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “The AIA’s Renewable Energy goals are proactive and ambitious, and the USDA should be applauded for undertaking such a forward-looking initiative that provides clear benefits to American consumers.”

RFA’s response identified the following five opportunities for the industry:

  • Increasing productivity in crops and ethanol to meet volume requirements sustainably
  • Stimulating more demand and reducing more emissions from the current RFS policy
  • Facilitating greater demand from future policy
  • Continuing USDA infrastructure investments to expand biofuel deployment and sell higher blends
  • Adopting carbon capture, sequestration and utilization technologies

In addition, the association identified several roadblocks that need to be addressed by the federal government. This includes providing RVP (Reid Vapor Pressure) parity for all ethanol blends, removing or significantly revising E15 fuel survey requirements and labeling requirements, revising EPA’s outdated lifecycle greenhouse gas analysis of corn ethanol, and eliminating unnecessary registration and pathway certification barriers to cellulosic ethanol production from corn kernel fiber.

“RFA has worked had to build a bold, sustainability-driven vision for the future of agriculture and transportation, and through our membership, we have positioned ourselves to lead that effort as advocates,” Cooper said. “On behalf of the nation’s ethanol producers, we are fully committed to collaborating with USDA to sustainably increase the production and availability of renewable fuels to achieve nationwide average blend rates of E15 in 2030 and E30 in 2050.”

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Jul 29, 2020

U.S. ethanol production was up approximately 5.5 percent the week ending July 24, while weekly ending stocks of fuel ethanol increased by about 2.4 percent, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on July 29.

U.S. ethanol production averaged approximately 958,000 barrels per day the week ending July 24, up from an average of 908,000 barrels per day the previous week. Ethanol production has been trending upward since hitting a low of 537,000 barrels per day the week ending April 24 due to market impacts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Production was down 73,000 barrels per day when compared to the same week of last year, and down 121,000 barrels per day when compared to the final week of February, before COVID-19 began to impact U.S. fuel markets.

Weekly U.S. ethanol ending stocks increased to 20.272 million barrels the week ending July 24, up from 19.801 million barrels the previous week. Stocks of fuel ethanol have fallen significantly over the past few months after reaching a record high of 27.689 million barrels the week ending April 17. When compared to the same week of last year, ethanol ending stocks were down 4.196 million barrels.

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