In the News

Ethanol Producer Magazine

May 30, 2024

The USDA expanded its outlook for 2024 ethanol exports in its latest quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report, released May 29. The agency now expects ethanol exports to reach $4 billion this year, up $400 million from the February outlook. 

Total U.S. agricultural exports in for fiscal year (FY) 2024 are currently projected at $170.5 billion, unchanged from the February forecast. Higher exports of livestock and dairy, as well as increased ethanol sales, largely offset expected reductions in grain and feed, oilseeds and horticulture products. 

The USDA attributed the $400 million increase in its forecast for ethanol exports to competitive U.S. prices which facilitate a record volume projection. If achieved, the expected $4 billion in ethanol exports would match the FY 2022 record in terms of value. 

According to the USDA, the per-unit values for U.S. ethanol are well below the record-highs of the previous three years, which is expected to lead to a more favorable U.S.-Brazil price spread, boosting the price competitiveness of U.S. ethanol exports. That boosted competitive is expected to clear the way for shipments to surpass the previous FY 2018 ethanol volume record of 1.6 billion gallons. The USDA said record shipments are expected to more than half of the top 10 markets, most importantly Canada, India, the U.K. and Colombia. 

The report notes that Canada remains a top destination for U.S. ethanol exports by a wide margin supported by higher ethanol-gasoline blending in Ontario and Quebec. India’s push to higher fuel ethanol blending and border protection for fuel-quality ethanol create opportunity to backfill demand in the industrial chemical market, the USDA said. Exports to the U.K. remain at record levels with higher E10 blending and U.S. suppliers replacing those on continental Europe, while surging U.S. ethanol exports to Colombia are supported by the country’s recent return to E10 blending despite a countervailing duty, the agency added. 

A full copy of the report is available on the USDA website.

Renewable Fuels Association

May 22, 2024

Memorial Day is the unofficial start of summer, which is the busiest time of year for travel by automobile. According to AAA, “38.4 million people will travel by car over Memorial Day weekend, the highest number for that holiday since AAA began tracking in 2000.”[1] This is 4% higher than last year and exceeds pre-pandemic levels.

Consumers are proving to be resilient despite high prices for many basic necessities, including gasoline. Retail gas prices are at their second-highest level for any Memorial Day for at least a decade, behind only 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine (Figure 1). Importantly, prices would be even higher if not for the presence of ethanol in almost all gasoline sold in the U.S.

Over the last month, the national average wholesale price of ethanol has been as much as$1.20 per gallon lower than that of petroleum gasoline blendstock, according to OPIS, mirroring trends in the price relationship between ethanol swaps and gasoline blendstock (RBOB) futures traded on commodities exchanges (Figure 2). This translates to a lower cost of finished motor gasoline (i.e., blendstock plus ethanol) at the fuel distribution terminal.

According to a Renewable Fuels Association analysis of terminal “rack” prices published by the Nebraska Energy Office, in April the cost of E10 (a blend of 10% ethanol and 90% gasoline) was $0.33 per gallon less than gasoline that did not contain ethanol.[2] Assuming a similar retail gasoline price discount over Memorial Day weekend, ethanol will save drivers $112 million in fuel costs.[3]

The discount for E15 relative to ethanol-free gasoline was $0.40 per gallon in April. If all gasoline sold in the U.S. over Memorial Day weekend were E15, consumers would save an additional $12 million compared to E10, even after accounting for E15’s slightly lower fuel economy.[4]

Moreover, the RFA analysis of Nebraska Energy Office data indicates that the discount for E10 versus ethanol-free gasoline has averaged $0.37 per gallon, or 13%, over the last 12 months. At the national level, this translates to annual consumer savings of $49 billion, or $377 per household. The E15 discount has been $0.44 per gallon over the same period, implying that consumers would have saved an additional $9 billion, or $70 per household, if all the gasoline sold in the U.S. had been E15.

Additionally, the estimates above reflect only the direct savings associated with ethanol. In other words, the estimates do not include additional savings associated with ethanol’s displacement of crude oil, refined gasoline, and more expensive octane boosters. (Lower demand for these petroleum products leads to lower prices in aggregate.) A 2023 study by energy economists from the University of California-Berkeley and leading universities in Brazil and the Czech Republic determined that the use of ethanol in the U.S. fuel supply “decreases the price paid by U.S. drivers at the pump. We estimate the average discount per gallon to be $0.77 between 2019 and 2022 and averaged across our models.”[5]

Likewise, ethanol helps make America more energy secure. Virtually all the ethanol used in the U.S. is produced domestically, and in 2023 the average ethanol content in the nation’s gasoline pool hit a record 10.4 percent.

As consumers fill up their vehicles over the holiday, it’s worth keeping these benefits in mind. More importantly, even as Americans enjoy the long weekend, they should take time to remember the meaning of Memorial Day.[6]

# # #

1] https://newsroom.aaa.com/2024/05/memorial-day/

[2] RFA analysis of Nebraska Energy Office rack price  data  for Omaha. Takes into account the value of Renewable Fuel Standard RINs.

[3] Assumes 38.4 million travelers by automobile; 200 miles per trip  (Bureau of Transportation Statistics  and  The Vacationer); average fuel economy of 22.8 miles per gallon  (Federal Highway Administration); and $0.33/gal savings attributable to ethanol (RFA analysis of Nebraska Energy Office data).

[4] E15 had a 1.28% lower fuel efficiency than E10, on average, in tests of 20 vehicles conducted by the University of California, Riverside

[5] https://ethanolrfa.org/media-and-news/category/news-releases/article/2023/02/new-university-study-ethanol-cuts-gas-prices-by-77-cents-per-gallon

[6] https://www.cem.va.gov/history/Memorial-Day-History.asp">https://www.cem.va.gov/history/Memorial-Day-History.asp

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Renewable Fuels Association

May 20, 2024

The Renewable Fuels Association today, along with Growth Energy,  filed a petition  in the Supreme Court of the United States requesting review of the Fifth Circuit Court’s recent opinion that it is a proper venue to consider challenges to the Environmental Protection Agency’s adjudication of small refinery exemption (SRE) petitions under the Renewable Fuel Standard.

In a 2-1 decision, the Fifth Circuit concluded in November 2023 that it was an appropriate venue to hear a challenge brought by oil refiners whose SRE petitions had been denied by EPA. RFA, which intervened in the Fifth Circuit case on behalf of EPA, argued that the Fifth Circuit was not an appropriate venue for the challenge, because SREs are nationally applicable and have nationwide scope or effect. Thus, RFA argued, the only proper venue for SRE challenges is the D.C. Circuit Court. Similar challenges brought by refiners were transferred or dismissed in the Third, Seventh, Ninth, Tenth, and Eleventh Circuit Courts, as those courts all affirmed they were not the proper venue to review a nationwide policy issue. In addition, the dissenting opinion in the Fifth Circuit case, written by Judge Patrick E. Higginbotham, agreed that the Fifth Circuit was an inappropriate venue and that the challenge should have instead been heard in the D.C. Circuit.

“As our petition makes clear, the Fifth Circuit never should have heard this challenge brought by refiners,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “EPA decisions on small refinery exemption petitions are inherently national in scope because the RFS establishes proportional renewable fuel volume requirements for every obligated party in the nation. When an exemption is granted, regardless of where the refinery is located, a nationwide shortfall of renewable fuel blending is created. As underscored by five other Circuit Courts and the dissenting opinion in the Fifth Circuit, the D.C. Circuit is obviously theonly proper venue for reviewing EPA’s denial of small refinery exemption petitions. The Supreme Court should overturn the Fifth Circuit’s flawed opinion and ensure that any SRE challenges are considered by the singular D.C. Circuit venue.”

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

May 10, 2024

Relying on its background in ethanol plant cleaning, Premium Plant Services leverages new technologies and methods to eliminate stubborn ethanol process residues. With the addition of two new Premium offices in New Jersey and Indiana, the company now has an expanded service area spanning the United States. Ian Hughes, general manager of the Midwest division of Premium Plant Services, explains that dry ice blasting is one of the innovations that makes cleaning safer and less messy.

Unlike hydroblasting, dry ice does not leave behind a messy slurry to be removed. Blasting also happens at a much lower pressure with dry ice, running at 120 psi rather than 10,000 to 20,000 psi, reducing the safety risk.

“We’ll use dry ice on separator cones, TOs (thermal oxidizers) and economizers, the HRSGs (heat recovery steam generators), the receiving lines, the RTOs—we can do all those with water—but with our expanded capabilities we can offer dry ice blasting to complement hydroblasting—giving plants the option to choose,” Hughes says.

The company’s dry ice blasting robot is the only one of its kind in the cleaning industry, Hughes explains. The robot is used for cleaning receiving lines and connections between grain bins; it is fitted with cameras on the front and back to ensure cleanliness. Able to clean lines ranging from eight to 52 inches in diameter, the dry ice robot is more effective than flushing the system with water.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

May 10, 2024

The USDA expanded its estimate for 2023-’24 corn use in ethanol to 5.45 billion bushels in its latest World Agriculture and Supply and Demand Estimates report, released May 10. The agency currently expects the volume of corn that goes to ethanol production to remain at that level for 2024-’25.

The overall 2024-’25 corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.9 billion bushels, down 3% from last year’s record as s decline in area is partially offset by an increase in yield. 

The yield projection of 181 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2023 time period. 

With higher beginning stocks, total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017-’18, according to the USDA. 

Total U.S. corn use for 2024-’25 is forecast to rise just under 1% relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports. Food, seed and industrial use is forecast at 6.9 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is projected higher on larger supplies and lower expected prices. 

The USDA increased its estimate for 2023’24 corn use in ethanol to 5.45 billion bushels, up from the April forecast of 5.4 billion bushels. Corn use for fuel ethanol was at 5.176 billion bushels for 2022-’23. The USDA currently expects corn use for ethanol to remain at 5.45 billion bushels for 2024-’25. 

U.S. corn exports for 2024-’25 are forecast to rise 50 million bushels to 2.2 billion, supported by a combined 5.4-million-ton reduction in exports for Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. is projected to the be world’s largest exporter for the second consecutive year, with an expected increase in global market share. 

With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2024-’25 ending stocks are up 80 million bushels from last year and, if realized, would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018-’19. Stocks would represent 14.2% of use, up from 13.7% the prior year and the highest since 2019-20. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, down 25 cents from 2023-’24. 

World corn production is forecast to decline from the prior year’s record to 1.220 billion metric tons, with the largest declines for the U.S., Ukraine, Zambia, Argentina, Malawi, Mozambique, and Turkey. Partly offsetting are larger crops projected for Brazil, the EU, China, South Africa, and Mexico. Lower area expectations drive a decline in corn production for Argentina, in contrast to Brazil where production is forecast higher on expanded area. Ukraine corn production is expected to be down on reductions to both area and yield. Corn crop prospects for Russia are down as higher area is more than offset by a decline in yield. 

World corn use is expected to rise less than 1% to a record 1.221 billion metric tons, with foreign consumption increasing modestly. World corn imports are forecast to fall just under 1%, driven by declines for several countries, including the EU, Canada, Iraq, and Venezuela. Partly offsetting are increases for Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Egypt, and Iran. 

Global corn ending stocks for 2024-‘25 are down 800,000 tons to 312.3 million. Stocks in the major exporting countries of Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. are projected down slightly, reflecting higher stocks in the U.S. mostly offset by declines for Brazil and Ukraine. For China, corn imports are projected unchanged at 23.0 million tons.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

May 7, 2024

Novonesis, a company formed via the January 2023 merger of Denmark-based biotechnology company Novozymes and Denmark-based bioscience company Chr. Hansen, released first quarter financial results on May 3, reporting strong results for its Bioenergy segment. 

The company said it achieved double-digit growth for its Bioenergy subsegment, supported by favorable market conditions and increased penetration, especially in North America. Bioenergy sales in Latin America also performed well, driven by capacity expansion of ethanol production, including volumes for second-generation ethanol. 

Results for the Bioenergy segment are now reported under Novonesis’ Agriculture, Energy and Tech segment, which reported flat sales when compared to the first quarter of last year. 

The Agriculture, Energy and Tech segment accounted for 36% of total company sales during the first quarter, while the company’s Food and Beverage, Human Health and Household Care segments accounted for 33%, 11% and 20% of sales, respectively. 

Overall, Novonesis reported a 4% growth in sales for the three-month period, with volumes accounting for 2% of growth and pricing contributing 2%. The company is currently predicting it will deliver a 5% to 7% sales growth for the full year.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

May 2, 2024

The U.S. exported 159.31 million gallons of ethanol and 1.06 million metric tons of distillers grains in March, according to data released by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service on May 2. Exports of both products were up when compared to both the previous month and March 2023.

The 159.31 million gallons of ethanol exported in March was up when compared to both the 139.02 million gallons exported during the previous month and the 132.27 million gallons exported in March 2023. 

The U.S. exported ethanol to more than three dozen countries in March. Canada was the top destination for U.S. ethanol exports during the month at 47.63 million gallons, followed by India at 21.47 million gallons and the U.K. at 19 million gallons. 

The value of U.S. ethanol exports reached $361.08 million in March, up from $309.11 million in February and $341.93 million in March of last year. 

Total ethanol exports for the first quarter of 2024 reached 448.3 million gallons at a value of $1.01 billion, compared to 354.12 million gallons exported at a value of $956.01 million during the same period of last year. 

The 1.06 million metric tons of distillers grains exported in March was up when compared to both the 986,337 metric tons exported in February and the 898,086 metric tons exported in March of last year. 

The U.S. exported distillers grains to approximately 40 countries in March. Mexico was the top destination for U.S. distillers grains export at 171,815 metric tons, followed by South Korea at 142,829 metric tons and Turkey at 122,027 metric tons. 

The value of U.S. distillers grains exports reached $307.81 million in March, up from $281.51 million the previous month and $296.53 million in March of last year. 

Total distillers grains exports for the first three months of this year reached 2.94 million metric tons at a value of $844.09 million, compared to 2.43 million metric tons exported during the same period of 2023 at a value of $802.18 million.

Additional data is available on the USDA FAS  website.

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Ethanol Producer Magazine

Apr 30, 2024

Archer Daniels Midland Co. on April 30 released first quarter financial results, reporting improved earnings for Vantage Corn Processors subsegment, which includes the company’s dry mill ethanol plants. 

ADM’s Carbohydrate Solutions segment, which houses its ethanol business, reported $248 million in segment operating profit during the first quarter, down 11% when compared to the same period of 2023. The company said its Starches & Sweeteners subsegment decreased $52 million, or 17%, as strong starches and sweeteners margins were offset by lower domestic ethanol markets due to strong industry production and elevated stocks. The Vantage Corn Processing subsegment reported a $13 million loss, which was a $21 million, or 62%, improvement over the $34 million loss reported for the first quarter of last year. ADM said strong demand for sustainably certified exports of ethanol supported volumes and higher margins. 

Moving into the second quarter, ADM Interim Chief Financial Officer Ismael Roig said the company expects to see solid demand for ethanol, both domestically and in the export markets. ADM Chairman and CEO Juan Luciano indicated there remains uncertainty in the ethanol market, but said the company is cautiously optimistic that inventories will balance, providing a small lift to margins. 

Overall, ADM reported $1.311 billion in segment operating profit for the first quarter, down 24% when compared to the same period of last year. Earnings per share were $1.42, down 33%. 

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