In the News
Jul 9, 2024
A new study by economists at UC Berkeley and the U.S. Naval Academy found California drivers could expect to save 20 cents per gallon if the state allowed gas stations to sell E15 fuel – a blend of 15 percent ethanol and 85 percent gasoline approved in all 49 other states.
The potential savings for California consumers could reach $2.7 billion annually, according to the study authored by David Zilberman, PhD, a distinguished professor in the Agricultural and Resources Economics Department at UC Berkeley, and Scott Kaplan, PhD, assistant professor in the Economics Department at the United States Naval Academy.
“Consumers have the potential to gain significantly from the introduction and purchase of E15,” according to the study. “In particular, our estimates suggest an approximately 20 cents per gallon discount for E15 compared with E10 after adjusting for energy content.” The authors also highlighted the benefit of E15’s lower carbon emissions. “In California, price savings for lower GHG intensity fuels are larger, likely due to California-specific policies incentivizing low carbon fuels.”
California is the last remaining state to limit ethanol inclusion in gasoline to just 10 percent (E10), but state regulators are considering approval of E15 after extensive vehicle testing showed the fuel offers important emissions benefits. E15 is legally approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for use in all cars, pickups, SUVs and vans manufactured in the last 24 years.
The study, sponsored by the Renewable Fuels Association, details the economic viability and implications of adopting E15 in California by analyzing fuel characteristics, market dynamics, and regulatory influences. Beyond direct cost savings, researchers found that increased use of ethanol-blend biofuels lowers gasoline usage, enhances energy security and reduces greenhouse gas emissions.
“Based on this study’s results, a typical California household could save $200 per year on their gas bill if state regulators would simply allow drivers to fuel up on E15,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper, noting that more than 24 million registered vehicles in California are already approved to use E15, but stations are not allowed to sell it. “It’s time for California to catch up to the other 49 states that already allow consumers to choose lower-cost, lower-carbon E15. The state’s failure to approve the use of E15 essentially amounts to a gas price hike at a time when hardworking Californians can least afford it.”
The study also found that “low-income commuters may stand to gain the most from a transition towards E15,” given their propensity to have longer commutes and less fuel-efficient vehicles.
An earlier study commissioned by the California Air Resources Board found that adopting E15 in California could also provide significant environmental benefits, cutting emissions of tailpipe pollutants—like particulate matter and carbon monoxide—that cause air quality and human health problems.
Read the original press release here.
Jul 3, 2024
U.S. ethanol exports reached the highest level ever for the month of May at 154.4 million gallons (mg), though this represented a 28% decline from a near-record in April. In a shift from recent trends, shippers targeted just twelve markets. Canada was the largest importer for the 38th consecutive month, despite a 4% decrease to 59.7 mg. The Philippines imported the largest monthly volume since October 2018 with an 82% jump to 16.0 mg. Exports also expanded to the European Union (14.2 mg, +3%), South Korea (13.0 mg, +8% to a 15-month high) and Singapore (9.1 mg, +452%). The remaining fifth of U.S. ethanol exports landed in the United Kingdom, Colombia, Brazil (for the second consecutive month), Mexico, Vietnam, Peru, and Jamaica. Year-to-date U.S. ethanol exports totaled 816.9 mg, up 43% from the same period last year.
The U.S. did not log any meaningful imports of foreign ethanol in May (141,806 gallons of undenatured fuel ethanol shipped from Brazil and Canada). Year-to-date imports stand at 1.4 mg.
U.S. exports of dried distillers grains (DDGS), the animal feed co-product generated by dry-mill ethanol plants, climbed 4% to 1.01 million metric tons (mt) on mixed markets. Shipments to Mexico declined by 15% to 198,438 mt, yet volumes were sufficiently strong to remain our top DDGS customer for the fifth straight month. Exports also decreased to South Korea (114,029 mt, -8%), Indonesia (84,884 mt, -33%), Vietnam (78,183 mt, -22%), Canada (55,799 mt, -8%), and Turkey (35,807 mt, -0.3%). Offsetting these reductions was a sizeable export expansion to the European Union (108,420 mt, +128% to a 28-month high), Colombia (40,035 mt, +89%), and China (39,962 mt, +99% to a 28-month high). The remaining quarter of U.S. DDGS shipments were spread across 30 countries. Year-to-date DDGS exports reached 4.93 million mt, up 18% compared to the previous year.
Read the original story here.
Jun 27, 2024
By Geoff Cooper, RFA President and CEO
In early 2022, University of Wisconsin researcher Tyler Lark published a study claiming that U.S. farmers had converted several million acres of pristine grassland and other “seminatural areas” to cropland in response to the Renewable Fuel Standard and growth in ethanol production.
The study was accompanied by a well-funded, well-orchestrated public relations blitz that resulted in dozens of news articles and editorials, widespread radio and TV coverage, and echo-chambering on blogs and social media channels. Even though the study’s methods and findings were roundly criticized and swiftly rebuked by the scientific community, the massive PR push behind the study unfortunately succeeded in spreading the “land use change” myth far and wide.
Two years later (March 2024), Lark published another study on land use change. Only this time there was no big publicity campaign. No interviews on NPR, no pithy feature story on Fox News or HBO talk shows, no social media blasts, no TIME magazine pieces, no National Wildlife Federation press conferences, no congressional staff briefings (those are all things that really happened after the 2022 study). In fact, the newest Lark study made about as much noise as a tree falling in the woods.
Why? What changed? How come there wasn’t a massive PR effort around the new land use study?
Put simply: the results of the new Lark paper don’t fit the doomsday narrative that was carefully crafted by media-savvy PR firms following the release of 2022 study. Indeed, the new Lark study actually contradicts and undermines his study that made headlines two years ago. That’s why they’re keeping it quiet.
Using the same satellite imagery approach that Lark used for the 2022 study, this newest study shows that between 1986 and 2018—a timeframe that encompasses the period of rapid growth in ethanol production—more than 30 million acres of U.S. cropland were abandoned and transitioned into grassland/permanent pasture, forest, shrubland, wetlands, urban areas, and other uses.
Wow! That’s right…rather than claiming cropland expanded into grassland and forest areas during the biofuels era (like his previous papers), this new Lark study suggests the exact opposite occurred.
According to the new analysis, U.S. cropland area significantly receded over the 33-year period examined—and in its place, grassland, permanent pasture, trees, and shrubs sprang up. Some of the ground was enrolled in CRP, but most was not. Lark and his colleagues concluded that “among the abandoned croplands, 53% changed to grassland and pasture, 18.6% to shrubland and forest, 8.4% to wetlands, and 4.6% to non-vegetated lands” (it seems likely that “non-vegetated land” is mostly urban/suburban land).
These findings appear generally consistent with land use data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and EPA, which show steadily declining cropland area and stable or increasing forest and grassland over the past several decades.
To put 30 million acres of abandoned cropland into context, consider that roughly 27 million acres of cropland were used to produce 15.6 billion gallons of ethanol and nearly 40 million tons of distillers grains animal feed last year. So, according to Tyler Lark, we’ve lost more cropland in the past three decades than we actually use today for ethanol and its many co-products. It’s also noteworthy that the 2022 Lark study’s highly flawed estimate of land use change (i.e., so-called “natural lands” converted to cropland) caused by the RFS was 4.4 million acres—seven times smaller than Lark’s new estimate of the amount of cropland that transitioned to grassland, pasture, forest, shrubland and other non-crop uses.
So, where did the abandonment of cropland and growth in grassland, forest, shrubland, and wetlands primarily occur? According to the new Lark study, areas with the highest amount of conversion from cropland to non-cropland were the Dakotas, Kansas, Montana, Oklahoma, and Texas. Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan also had large amounts of abandoned cropland that transitioned into grassland, forest, and other land types.
Ironically, these are many of the same states where previous Lark studies claimed significant cropland expansion into native lands was occurring—especially the Dakotas, Minnesota, southern Iowa, and northern Missouri. The new study suggests some counties in those same states saw as much as 20-30% of total cropland abandoned and transitioned into other land types between 1986 and 2018.
Moreover: “The cropland abandonment we identify here is expected to persist,” the authors wrote.
They also found that “urban development is another important cause of cropland loss,” and specifically noted Chicago, Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, Detroit, St. Louis and Columbus as cities where urban sprawl has displaced productive cropland.
Now, before you go thinking this group of researchers has finally seen the light, it’s important to note that this new study suffers from many of the same methodological problems and flaws as their previous satellite imagery work (e.g., lumping pasture and grass hay ground together with native grassland; misclassification of certain land cover types in the “Cropland Data Layer” tool).
Nonetheless, it’s intriguing to see Lark and his colleagues arriving at conclusions that so clearly undercut and further discredit their previous land use change studies.
Hopefully, the PR machine that ginned up all the publicity on the 2022 Lark study has a new seven-figure campaign in the works to publicize these results on the substantial amount of cropland abandonment and the remarkable increases in efficiency experienced throughout U.S. agriculture. Will the environmental groups aligned with Lark ask their PR firms to pitch this story to reporters? Will Lark go back on public radio to correct the record? Will Fox News’ Greg Gutfeld or HBO’s John Oliver pick up the story and do a mea culpa after being misled by Lark’s previous work?
We’re not holding our breath.
Read the original story here.
Jun 26, 2024
Increased use of lower-carbon liquid fuels in light-duty vehicles would lead to larger and faster reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than EPA’s recently finalized EV-forcing tailpipe emissions standards, according to a new study commissioned by the RFA and executed by an independent not-for-profit research institute.
“Lowering the carbon intensity of liquid fuels can reduce CO2 emissions faster than [electric] vehicles can displace the existing fleet,” according to the study. With a modest fuel carbon intensity reduction of just 1.25 percent per year nationwide, “the cumulative CO2benefit from 2027 to 2032 would be 77 percent larger than required by the EPA standards.” The study notes that “this CO2benefit could be achieved with a dramatically smaller on-road BEV fleet” than is anticipated by EPA under the new tailpipe standards.
The study also found that if automakers rely primarily on BEVs to meet EPA’s tailpipe standards and if 17 states adopt California’s “zero emissions vehicle” mandate, U.S. liquid fuel consumption in 2035 will fall 38 billion gallons (compared to 2022 levels) and electricity consumption will jump 480 terawatt hours (roughly twice as much electricity as California uses annually).
“Not only are EPA’s tailpipe standards based on the false premise that battery electric vehicles somehow have zero GHG emissions impacts, but the agency also failed to consider alternative solutions—like lower carbon liquid fuels—that could achieve the same goals more quickly and cost-effectively,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “This study shows that a nationwide move to reduce carbon intensity by just 1.25 percent per year would almost double the carbon savings expected by EPA under the tailpipe regulation, while allowing more light-duty vehicle and fuel options for consumers. The study also provides startling projections of the liquid fuel demand destruction and surge in electricity consumption that could result from EPA and California vehicle standards.”
A second study by the research institute shows that if the existing fleet of flex fuel vehicles (FFVs) used modestly larger amounts of E85, substantial GHG emissions reductions could be achieved. And, if those FFVs usedonly E85, GHG emissions would be reduced by up to 54 million metric tons per year—equivalent to almost 40 percent of EPA’s estimated GHG savings in 2035 from the new tailpipe standards.
“Widespread use of E85 would have significant greenhouse gas emissions benefits,” the study concluded. According to the study, rapid growth in E85 “could achieve a large fraction” of the expected benefit from EPA’s tailpipe regulation “because E85 would improve life cycle CO2emissions for a large fleet of existing vehicles, not just new vehicles.”
The study notes that using E85 in FFVs, which account for more than 8 percent of today’s on-road fleet, also would save consumers money at the pump. “In addition to the greenhouse gas benefits, E85 generally offers a retail price advantage,” the study found. “If all FFVs nationwide consumed only E85, it would result in annual savings of over $2.2 billion,” even when prices are adjusted to reflect E85’s lower energy density.
“This study indicates that in the headlong rush to EVs, federal and state policymakers are overlooking an incredibly effective tool for reducing GHG emissions from the existing fleet,” Cooper said. “Nearly 21 million FFVs are already on the road today and they could produce enormous GHG emissions benefits if government leaders would simply put more emphasis and encouragement behind the use of low-carbon fuel blends like E85.”
Cooper said the results of the study underscore another important error in EPA’s tailpipe regulation. “Automakers are strongly compelled to build more BEVs because EPA’s regulation assumes they have zero emissions,” Cooper said. “Yet, at the same time, EPA’s regulation discourages automakers from building new E85-capable FFVs because those vehicles are assumed to offer no benefit over gasoline vehicles, even though this study—and lots of other research—shows E85 provides at least a 35 percent GHG savings.”
Read the original press release here.
Jun 20, 2024
Revisiting the Role of Ethanol in Transport Decarbonisation
The Climate Ethanol Alliance (CEA), representing interests in Europe, the US, and Asia, has been established to advance transport decarbonisation. The Alliance brings together bioethanol producers, service providers, and input suppliers within the bioeconomy to support the climate action goals of the Paris Agreement and accelerate the transport sector's transition towards low carbon emissions.
Founded by Pannonia Bio and the Renewable Fuels Association, with support from Eco-Energy, IFF, Lallemand, Murex, and Praj, the Climate Ethanol Alliance is committed to promoting renewable ethanol as a sustainable alternative to oil. The Alliance advocates for evidence-based policymaking in transport decarbonisation.
With over two decades of real-world evidence, ethanol has demonstrated its viability as an alternative to oil. Continuous technological innovation within the bio-based economy has resulted in significant benefits for the climate, rural development, farming, energy independence, and air quality.
As climate change mitigation and transport priorities evolve, the role of ethanol is being reassessed for its potential as a sustainable solution.
- Drawing on more than a decade of real-world experience, the CEA emphasizes the importance of evidence-based policymaking. Revisiting and rebranding ethanol is essential, given its proven effectiveness and cost-efficiency.
- The introduction of High-Octane Fuels is deemed necessary for liquid fuel standards to deliver on climate goals. Standardizing E20 (20% ethanol blended in petrol) with increased octane is identified as a critical step forward.
- The ethanol industry is well-positioned to lead carbon removal efforts. Recognizing the cost-effectiveness of Fermentation Carbon Capture and Storage (FCCS) is vital for policy frameworks aimed at addressing climate change.
The Climate Ethanol Alliance partners advocate for policies that deliver tangible results and actions that effectively contribute to climate mitigation efforts. They believe it is time to align policy discussions with the reality of ethanol's capabilities and contributions.
Read the original press release here.
Jun 14, 2024
By Association of Equipment Manufacturers
Biomanufacturing advocates on June 10 released a new report that provides a closer look at the employment, wages, and economic activity driven by the U.S. industrial bioeconomy. Authored by TEConomy Partners, LLC, the report, “The Economic Impact of the U.S. Industrial Bioeconomy,” illuminates an increasingly important segment of the U.S. economy associated with biomanufacturing and bioproducts (those other than food, beverages, and pharmaceuticals). Included in the report are state and federal figures for economic activity tied to the transformation of renewable biomass into fertilizers, bioplastics, biofuels, bio-lubricants, and a host of other industrial bioproducts, as well as the research and development of microbes, enzymes, biocatalysts, and other technologies used in modern biomanufacturing. Supporting expansion in the sector is a key goal of the National Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Initiative, as outlined by President Biden.
“Our abundant natural resources, unparalleled agricultural sector, and strong leadership in the sciences have combined to establish America’s industrial bioeconomy as a powerful engine for U.S. growth,” said Curt Blades, senior vice president of industry sectors & product leadership at the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. “These are high-tech jobs, often in union-heavy supply chains like those for biofuels, that add value to the economy at every stage. With the right support from Washington and a continued focus on renewable products, this segment has the potential to turbo-charge U.S. manufacturing.”
According to the report, in 2023, the U.S. industrial bioeconomy supported nearly 644,000 domestic jobs, contributed $210 billion to the U.S. GDP, and drove $49 billion in wages. In terms of total economic output, the top five states were Illinois, Iowa, California, Nebraska, and Minnesota. Other states, Georgia and Ohio, broke into the top five when looking specifically at direct and total employment, respectively.
“The U.S. industrial bioeconomy has remained a consistent source of domestic jobs and manufacturing strength without the need for any special strategies to bring jobs back from overseas,” explains the report. “The significant jobs multiplier demonstrates this key facet of the U.S. industrial bioeconomy. The U.S. industry provides jobs, economic activity, and sustainability throughout the U.S. A considerable competitive and policy advantage of these industrial bioeconomy jobs is their tie to U.S. soil, both literally and figuratively—these jobs are here and stay in the U.S.”
The report also found that the average industrial bioeconomy worker took home $133,600 in annual compensation and that each direct job in the sector generates or supports more than 11 additional jobs through indirect means, such as the purchase of raw materials, including agricultural commodities, and other inputs..
“Relative to other industrial sectors, the extended domestic supply chain of the U.S. industrial bioeconomy generates outsized secondary economic benefits,” wrote the authors. “This is especially true of domestic employment, where each direct job supports 11.08 additional indirect and induced jobs (total employment multiplier of 12.08). For comparison, the employment multiplier for the sector that includes solar photovoltaics is 6.50 and the multiplier for the sector that includes wind turbines is 3.73.”
The report was commissioned by a coalition of leading innovators, manufacturers, and trade associations committed to expanding the U.S. bioeconomy. Supporters include the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, Clean Fuels Alliance America, National Corn Growers Association, Growth Energy, Renewable Fuels Association, ADM, Aemetis, Bayer, Bunge, Marquis Energy, Novonesis, and POET.
Read the original story here
Minneapolis, MN – (June 11, 2024) – Jeanne McCaherty, CEO of Guardian Energy Management, LLC, was recognized as the winner of the Women in Ethanol Award (WIE) on the morning of Tuesday, June 11 at the International Fuel Ethanol Workshop & Expo (FEW), the world’s largest ethanol conference, taking place this week in Minneapolis, Minnesota. She was presented this award to recognize her growth, collaboration, and vision for the biofuels industry at the International Fuel Ethanol Workshop & Expo (FEW).
McCaherty was awarded this honor during the second annual award ceremony. Ethanol Producer Magazine recognized women within the ethanol industry and highlighted the crucial role women play in the growth and success of the ethanol industry. The award ceremony celebrated all women who have made significant contributions to the industry, whether it be through scientific research, business leadership, or advocacy efforts.
McCaherty has been a demonstrated leader within the ethanol industry by successfully managing the operations of three leading ethanol plants across three states. Along with being the CEO of Guardian Energy Management, LLC, she became a Chairperson for Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) in 2020 and is the first woman to hold this position in any ethanol trade group. McCaherty holds esteemed positions on the board of directors for Renewable Products Marketing Group (RPMG), Minnesota Biofuels Association, and is a member of Minnesota Governor’s Biofuels Council. Beyond her professional duties, Jeanne's leadership serves as a beacon for aspiring women in the industry.
“We are honored to name Jeanne as the 2024 recipient of the Women in Ethanol Award,” said Anna Simet, editor at BBI International. “This year, we received an outstanding 20 nominations, and it was a privilege to learn about the accomplishments of all these women. Jeanne is a perfect example of the kind of ethanol industry trailblazers we aim to recognize and celebrate with this special award.”
McCaherty’s nominator described her leadership and being an inspiration for women within the ethanol industry. “In a landmark achievement, Jeanne ascended to the role of the first female chairperson in the RFA's storied history in 2020, marking a significant milestone not only within the organization but also in any national ethanol trade association. Additionally, she has lent her expertise to the Minnesota Governor’s Biofuels Council.” Her nominator continued, “Her visionary leadership was instrumental in initiating networking events for women at the National Ethanol Conference (NEC) during her tenure as Chairperson of RFA. Jeanne embodies the qualities of a trailblazer and an inspiration to all women in the ethanol sector.”
The 40th annual FEW began on Monday, June 10 and will run through Wednesday, June 12 at the Minneapolis Convention Center. As the FEW continues to grow, the event has over 600 biofuels producers, 2,400 professionals registered, and over 350 companies displayed on the expo hall floor.
Jun 6, 2024
In April, U.S. ethanol exports exceeded the 200-million-gallon (mg) mark for only the second time in history, driven by robust demand from major markets and several record highs. Exports rallied by 34% to 214.2 mg, the highest volume since the record set in March 2018. Canada continued to be the largest importer for the 37th consecutive month, taking in 62.3 mg, a 31% increase and six-month high. The United Kingdom saw an 80% surge to a record 34.2 mg. Conversely, exports to India and the European Union decreased to 18.3 mg (-15%) and 13.9 mg (-31%), respectively. Several other larger markets reached multiyear highs, including Oman (12.4 mg), Brazil (11.9 mg), Nigeria (10.1 mg), Mexico (9.8 mg), and the Philippines (8.8 mg). Notably, April was the first time since May 2022 that significant volumes landed in Brazil. Year-to-date U.S. ethanol exports totaled 662.5 mg, up 38% from the same period last year and marking the highest volume in six years.
The U.S. did not log any meaningful imports of foreign ethanol in April (Brazil shipped 70,204 gallons of undenatured fuel ethanol). Year-to-date imports stand at 1.1 mg.
U.S. exports of dried distillers grains (DDGS), the animal feed co-product generated by dry-mill ethanol plants, decreased 8% to 970,164 metric tons (mt) despite growth across most larger markets. Shipments to Mexico rebounded by 36% to 233,715 mt, maintaining its position as our top DDGS customer for the fourth straight month. Indonesia set a record with a 14% increase to 126,042 mt, surpassing South Korea, which saw imports fall by 14% to a five-month low of 123,357 mt. Other larger markets showed growth, including Vietnam (99,862 mt, +10%), Canada (60,801 mt, +9%), the European Union (47,541 mt, +69%), Ireland (47,343 mt, +122%), and Morocco (40,597 mt, 150%). The remaining 20% of U.S. DDGS exports were spread across 29 countries. Year-to-date DDGS exports reached 3.91 million mt, up 22% compared to the previous year.
Read the original story here.
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Jun 4, 2024
CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa – Fluid Quip Technologies (FQT) proudly announces the integration of its groundbreaking Distillers Corn Oil (DCO) Technology™ at the Chippewa Valley Ethanol Company (CVEC) in Benson, Minnesota. This innovative technology promises to deliver an average 20% increase in distillers corn oil yields and reduce energy costs through enhanced solids control in evaporators.
“CVEC has been a dedicated partner for many years, and we are excited to implement our DCO Technology at their facility,” said Neal Jakel, President of Fluid Quip Technologies. “This advancement will enable CVEC to achieve unprecedented oil yields, further establishing their role as a leader in the ethanol and distilled spirits industry.
“Chad Friese, General Manager of CVEC, expressed his enthusiasm for the new technology: “We are eager to see the substantial benefits of FQT’s DCO Technology in action. At CVEC, our goal is to remain at the forefront of industry innovations, and this technology is a crucial part of that mission.”
FQT’s DCO Technology™ enhances the mechanical separation of distillers’ corn oil from whole stillage, directing it into the thin stillage stream and clarifying the stream to reduce fine solids before reaching the evaporation and oil recovery systems. This process not only increases corn oil yields but also improves the efficiency of evaporators, leading to lower energy consumption and reduced operational costs.
The integration of DCO Technology™ is part of FQT’s broader Maximized Stillage Co-products™ (MSC™) protein systems. This strategic addition positions the technology as a foundational element for future advancements, including the production of high-value proteins.
Fluid Quip Technologies and Chippewa Valley Ethanol Company remain committed to pushing the boundaries of efficiency and innovation in the ethanol industry. This partnership underscores their dedication to operational excellence and sustainable technological advancements.
About Fluid Quip Technologies
Fluid Quip Technologies®(FQT) is a premier technology and process engineering firm based in Cedar Rapids, IA, USA. FQT was founded on extensive experience within the corn wet milling and dry grind ethanol industries and leverages this experience to drive innovation in the ag processing industries for customers around the world. FQT’s skilled engineering and technical leadership has been developing new technologies and process solutions applicable to the biofuels and biochemical industries for more than 30 years.
Read the original press release here.
May 30, 2024
The USDA expanded its outlook for 2024 ethanol exports in its latest quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report, released May 29. The agency now expects ethanol exports to reach $4 billion this year, up $400 million from the February outlook.
Total U.S. agricultural exports in for fiscal year (FY) 2024 are currently projected at $170.5 billion, unchanged from the February forecast. Higher exports of livestock and dairy, as well as increased ethanol sales, largely offset expected reductions in grain and feed, oilseeds and horticulture products.
The USDA attributed the $400 million increase in its forecast for ethanol exports to competitive U.S. prices which facilitate a record volume projection. If achieved, the expected $4 billion in ethanol exports would match the FY 2022 record in terms of value.
According to the USDA, the per-unit values for U.S. ethanol are well below the record-highs of the previous three years, which is expected to lead to a more favorable U.S.-Brazil price spread, boosting the price competitiveness of U.S. ethanol exports. That boosted competitive is expected to clear the way for shipments to surpass the previous FY 2018 ethanol volume record of 1.6 billion gallons. The USDA said record shipments are expected to more than half of the top 10 markets, most importantly Canada, India, the U.K. and Colombia.
The report notes that Canada remains a top destination for U.S. ethanol exports by a wide margin supported by higher ethanol-gasoline blending in Ontario and Quebec. India’s push to higher fuel ethanol blending and border protection for fuel-quality ethanol create opportunity to backfill demand in the industrial chemical market, the USDA said. Exports to the U.K. remain at record levels with higher E10 blending and U.S. suppliers replacing those on continental Europe, while surging U.S. ethanol exports to Colombia are supported by the country’s recent return to E10 blending despite a countervailing duty, the agency added.
A full copy of the report is available on the USDA website.
May 22, 2024
Memorial Day is the unofficial start of summer, which is the busiest time of year for travel by automobile. According to AAA, “38.4 million people will travel by car over Memorial Day weekend, the highest number for that holiday since AAA began tracking in 2000.”[1] This is 4% higher than last year and exceeds pre-pandemic levels.
Consumers are proving to be resilient despite high prices for many basic necessities, including gasoline. Retail gas prices are at their second-highest level for any Memorial Day for at least a decade, behind only 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine (Figure 1). Importantly, prices would be even higher if not for the presence of ethanol in almost all gasoline sold in the U.S.
Over the last month, the national average wholesale price of ethanol has been as much as$1.20 per gallon lower than that of petroleum gasoline blendstock, according to OPIS, mirroring trends in the price relationship between ethanol swaps and gasoline blendstock (RBOB) futures traded on commodities exchanges (Figure 2). This translates to a lower cost of finished motor gasoline (i.e., blendstock plus ethanol) at the fuel distribution terminal.
According to a Renewable Fuels Association analysis of terminal “rack” prices published by the Nebraska Energy Office, in April the cost of E10 (a blend of 10% ethanol and 90% gasoline) was $0.33 per gallon less than gasoline that did not contain ethanol.[2] Assuming a similar retail gasoline price discount over Memorial Day weekend, ethanol will save drivers $112 million in fuel costs.[3]
The discount for E15 relative to ethanol-free gasoline was $0.40 per gallon in April. If all gasoline sold in the U.S. over Memorial Day weekend were E15, consumers would save an additional $12 million compared to E10, even after accounting for E15’s slightly lower fuel economy.[4]
Moreover, the RFA analysis of Nebraska Energy Office data indicates that the discount for E10 versus ethanol-free gasoline has averaged $0.37 per gallon, or 13%, over the last 12 months. At the national level, this translates to annual consumer savings of $49 billion, or $377 per household. The E15 discount has been $0.44 per gallon over the same period, implying that consumers would have saved an additional $9 billion, or $70 per household, if all the gasoline sold in the U.S. had been E15.
Additionally, the estimates above reflect only the direct savings associated with ethanol. In other words, the estimates do not include additional savings associated with ethanol’s displacement of crude oil, refined gasoline, and more expensive octane boosters. (Lower demand for these petroleum products leads to lower prices in aggregate.) A 2023 study by energy economists from the University of California-Berkeley and leading universities in Brazil and the Czech Republic determined that the use of ethanol in the U.S. fuel supply “decreases the price paid by U.S. drivers at the pump. We estimate the average discount per gallon to be $0.77 between 2019 and 2022 and averaged across our models.”[5]
Likewise, ethanol helps make America more energy secure. Virtually all the ethanol used in the U.S. is produced domestically, and in 2023 the average ethanol content in the nation’s gasoline pool hit a record 10.4 percent.
As consumers fill up their vehicles over the holiday, it’s worth keeping these benefits in mind. More importantly, even as Americans enjoy the long weekend, they should take time to remember the meaning of Memorial Day.[6]
# # #
1] https://newsroom.aaa.com/2024/05/memorial-day/
[2] RFA analysis of Nebraska Energy Office rack price data for Omaha. Takes into account the value of Renewable Fuel Standard RINs.
[3] Assumes 38.4 million travelers by automobile; 200 miles per trip (Bureau of Transportation Statistics and The Vacationer); average fuel economy of 22.8 miles per gallon (Federal Highway Administration); and $0.33/gal savings attributable to ethanol (RFA analysis of Nebraska Energy Office data).
[4] E15 had a 1.28% lower fuel efficiency than E10, on average, in tests of 20 vehicles conducted by the University of California, Riverside
[5] https://ethanolrfa.org/media-and-news/category/news-releases/article/2023/02/new-university-study-ethanol-cuts-gas-prices-by-77-cents-per-gallon
[6] https://www.cem.va.gov/history/Memorial-Day-History.asp">https://www.cem.va.gov/history/Memorial-Day-History.asp
Read the original blog here.
May 20, 2024
The Renewable Fuels Association today, along with Growth Energy, filed a petition in the Supreme Court of the United States requesting review of the Fifth Circuit Court’s recent opinion that it is a proper venue to consider challenges to the Environmental Protection Agency’s adjudication of small refinery exemption (SRE) petitions under the Renewable Fuel Standard.
In a 2-1 decision, the Fifth Circuit concluded in November 2023 that it was an appropriate venue to hear a challenge brought by oil refiners whose SRE petitions had been denied by EPA. RFA, which intervened in the Fifth Circuit case on behalf of EPA, argued that the Fifth Circuit was not an appropriate venue for the challenge, because SREs are nationally applicable and have nationwide scope or effect. Thus, RFA argued, the only proper venue for SRE challenges is the D.C. Circuit Court. Similar challenges brought by refiners were transferred or dismissed in the Third, Seventh, Ninth, Tenth, and Eleventh Circuit Courts, as those courts all affirmed they were not the proper venue to review a nationwide policy issue. In addition, the dissenting opinion in the Fifth Circuit case, written by Judge Patrick E. Higginbotham, agreed that the Fifth Circuit was an inappropriate venue and that the challenge should have instead been heard in the D.C. Circuit.
“As our petition makes clear, the Fifth Circuit never should have heard this challenge brought by refiners,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “EPA decisions on small refinery exemption petitions are inherently national in scope because the RFS establishes proportional renewable fuel volume requirements for every obligated party in the nation. When an exemption is granted, regardless of where the refinery is located, a nationwide shortfall of renewable fuel blending is created. As underscored by five other Circuit Courts and the dissenting opinion in the Fifth Circuit, the D.C. Circuit is obviously theonly proper venue for reviewing EPA’s denial of small refinery exemption petitions. The Supreme Court should overturn the Fifth Circuit’s flawed opinion and ensure that any SRE challenges are considered by the singular D.C. Circuit venue.”
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May 10, 2024
Relying on its background in ethanol plant cleaning, Premium Plant Services leverages new technologies and methods to eliminate stubborn ethanol process residues. With the addition of two new Premium offices in New Jersey and Indiana, the company now has an expanded service area spanning the United States. Ian Hughes, general manager of the Midwest division of Premium Plant Services, explains that dry ice blasting is one of the innovations that makes cleaning safer and less messy.
Unlike hydroblasting, dry ice does not leave behind a messy slurry to be removed. Blasting also happens at a much lower pressure with dry ice, running at 120 psi rather than 10,000 to 20,000 psi, reducing the safety risk.
“We’ll use dry ice on separator cones, TOs (thermal oxidizers) and economizers, the HRSGs (heat recovery steam generators), the receiving lines, the RTOs—we can do all those with water—but with our expanded capabilities we can offer dry ice blasting to complement hydroblasting—giving plants the option to choose,” Hughes says.
The company’s dry ice blasting robot is the only one of its kind in the cleaning industry, Hughes explains. The robot is used for cleaning receiving lines and connections between grain bins; it is fitted with cameras on the front and back to ensure cleanliness. Able to clean lines ranging from eight to 52 inches in diameter, the dry ice robot is more effective than flushing the system with water.
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May 10, 2024
The USDA expanded its estimate for 2023-’24 corn use in ethanol to 5.45 billion bushels in its latest World Agriculture and Supply and Demand Estimates report, released May 10. The agency currently expects the volume of corn that goes to ethanol production to remain at that level for 2024-’25.
The overall 2024-’25 corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.9 billion bushels, down 3% from last year’s record as s decline in area is partially offset by an increase in yield.
The yield projection of 181 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2023 time period.
With higher beginning stocks, total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017-’18, according to the USDA.
Total U.S. corn use for 2024-’25 is forecast to rise just under 1% relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports. Food, seed and industrial use is forecast at 6.9 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is projected higher on larger supplies and lower expected prices.
The USDA increased its estimate for 2023’24 corn use in ethanol to 5.45 billion bushels, up from the April forecast of 5.4 billion bushels. Corn use for fuel ethanol was at 5.176 billion bushels for 2022-’23. The USDA currently expects corn use for ethanol to remain at 5.45 billion bushels for 2024-’25.
U.S. corn exports for 2024-’25 are forecast to rise 50 million bushels to 2.2 billion, supported by a combined 5.4-million-ton reduction in exports for Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. is projected to the be world’s largest exporter for the second consecutive year, with an expected increase in global market share.
With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2024-’25 ending stocks are up 80 million bushels from last year and, if realized, would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018-’19. Stocks would represent 14.2% of use, up from 13.7% the prior year and the highest since 2019-20. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, down 25 cents from 2023-’24.
World corn production is forecast to decline from the prior year’s record to 1.220 billion metric tons, with the largest declines for the U.S., Ukraine, Zambia, Argentina, Malawi, Mozambique, and Turkey. Partly offsetting are larger crops projected for Brazil, the EU, China, South Africa, and Mexico. Lower area expectations drive a decline in corn production for Argentina, in contrast to Brazil where production is forecast higher on expanded area. Ukraine corn production is expected to be down on reductions to both area and yield. Corn crop prospects for Russia are down as higher area is more than offset by a decline in yield.
World corn use is expected to rise less than 1% to a record 1.221 billion metric tons, with foreign consumption increasing modestly. World corn imports are forecast to fall just under 1%, driven by declines for several countries, including the EU, Canada, Iraq, and Venezuela. Partly offsetting are increases for Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Egypt, and Iran.
Global corn ending stocks for 2024-‘25 are down 800,000 tons to 312.3 million. Stocks in the major exporting countries of Argentina, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. are projected down slightly, reflecting higher stocks in the U.S. mostly offset by declines for Brazil and Ukraine. For China, corn imports are projected unchanged at 23.0 million tons.
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May 7, 2024
Novonesis, a company formed via the January 2023 merger of Denmark-based biotechnology company Novozymes and Denmark-based bioscience company Chr. Hansen, released first quarter financial results on May 3, reporting strong results for its Bioenergy segment.
The company said it achieved double-digit growth for its Bioenergy subsegment, supported by favorable market conditions and increased penetration, especially in North America. Bioenergy sales in Latin America also performed well, driven by capacity expansion of ethanol production, including volumes for second-generation ethanol.
Results for the Bioenergy segment are now reported under Novonesis’ Agriculture, Energy and Tech segment, which reported flat sales when compared to the first quarter of last year.
The Agriculture, Energy and Tech segment accounted for 36% of total company sales during the first quarter, while the company’s Food and Beverage, Human Health and Household Care segments accounted for 33%, 11% and 20% of sales, respectively.
Overall, Novonesis reported a 4% growth in sales for the three-month period, with volumes accounting for 2% of growth and pricing contributing 2%. The company is currently predicting it will deliver a 5% to 7% sales growth for the full year.
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May 2, 2024
The U.S. exported 159.31 million gallons of ethanol and 1.06 million metric tons of distillers grains in March, according to data released by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service on May 2. Exports of both products were up when compared to both the previous month and March 2023.
The 159.31 million gallons of ethanol exported in March was up when compared to both the 139.02 million gallons exported during the previous month and the 132.27 million gallons exported in March 2023.
The U.S. exported ethanol to more than three dozen countries in March. Canada was the top destination for U.S. ethanol exports during the month at 47.63 million gallons, followed by India at 21.47 million gallons and the U.K. at 19 million gallons.
The value of U.S. ethanol exports reached $361.08 million in March, up from $309.11 million in February and $341.93 million in March of last year.
Total ethanol exports for the first quarter of 2024 reached 448.3 million gallons at a value of $1.01 billion, compared to 354.12 million gallons exported at a value of $956.01 million during the same period of last year.
The 1.06 million metric tons of distillers grains exported in March was up when compared to both the 986,337 metric tons exported in February and the 898,086 metric tons exported in March of last year.
The U.S. exported distillers grains to approximately 40 countries in March. Mexico was the top destination for U.S. distillers grains export at 171,815 metric tons, followed by South Korea at 142,829 metric tons and Turkey at 122,027 metric tons.
The value of U.S. distillers grains exports reached $307.81 million in March, up from $281.51 million the previous month and $296.53 million in March of last year.
Total distillers grains exports for the first three months of this year reached 2.94 million metric tons at a value of $844.09 million, compared to 2.43 million metric tons exported during the same period of 2023 at a value of $802.18 million.
Additional data is available on the USDA FAS website.
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