Jan 10, 2024
The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased both its estimate of 2023 fuel ethanol production and forecast for 2024 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Jan. 9.
The EIA currently estimates that U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.02 million barrels per day in 2023, up from last month’s forecast of 1.01 million barrels per day. The agency also increased its forecast for 2024 fuel ethanol production to 1.02 million barrels per day, up from the forecast of 1 million barrels per day included in its December STEO. In addition, the January STEO includes the EIA’s first short-term forecast for 2025, with the agency predicting fuel ethanol production will continue to average 1.02 million barrels per day next year.
On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.02 million barrels per day during the first quarter of this year, falling to 1.01 million barrels per day in the second and third quarters, and expanding to 1.03 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2025, fuel ethanol production is currently expected to average 1.02 million barrels per day in the first and second quarters, 1.01 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1.04 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.05 million barrels per day in the final quarter of 2023.
The EIA maintained both its estimate that fuel ethanol blending averaged 930,000 barrels per day in 2023 and that fuel ethanol blending will continue to average 390,000 barrels per day in 2024. The agency currently predicts fuel ethanol blending will expand to 940,000 barrels per day in 2025.
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